World Cup Betting

The World Cup just kicked off 45 minutes ago with South Africa and Mexico tied 0-0 at half.  Some various bets I’m recommending so far:

Uruguay to win Group A +350

This one is already off the board as Group A starts today, but this was also available at +400.  Even odds for a team that should be slightly better than that in the most wide open group of the eight.

New Zealand Total Goals Under 1.5

New Zealand failed to score at the Confederations Cup in 2009 against Spain, Iraq and South Africa.  They scored one goal in 180 minutes against Bahrain to qualify.  They haven’t scored more than one goal in a competitive game in a very long time (games against fellow South Pacific island nations excluded).  That said, they’ve been very good in warmups, beating Serbia 1-0 and nearly drawing Australia, losing 2-1 on a stoppage time goal.  They still haven’t scored more than one goal in a game though.  NZ plays Italy, Paraguay and Slovakia in the group stage and this bet says they won’t score in two of those games.

Greece – South Korea 0-0 Draw +600

Greece is quite possibly the most boring team in the tournament and +600 or so is probably going to be offered on this exact bet for all three of their games.  South Korea will likely have to manufacture a goal from open play as Greece are very good on set pieces, which will also be their best chance to score.  The over/under for this game is 2, not 2.5, so not a lot of goals are expected.  This, along with New Zealand, is a high variance play.

Brazil -1000 vs North Korea

Brazil has to win this game over 90% of the time for this to be profitable.  It’s very, very difficult to envision them losing to a North Korea team that we know almost nothing about but isn’t particularly good.

Portugal/Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals +135

A little secret about these two teams is that neither of them are particularly good at defending.

Brazil Goals for the Tournament Over 6.5 -110

This is not the most prolific scoring Brazil team to grace the World Cup, but they aren’t up against the strongest defensive teams either.  This will may hinge on how many goals they score in their opener if Brazil have problems in their group.  Brazil have scored 10+ goals in six of the last seven World Cups.