Author: lou
Vagaries and Variance
As I write this, the White Sox and Royals are in extra innings because KC closer Joakim Soria allowed four runs to Chicago after recording the first two outs easily in the top of the 9th.
The following discussion took place between the befuddled Royals announcers:
Announcer 1: What are the odds in Vegas that this game would still be going?
Announcer 2: There were 2 outs in the inning. I’m still trying to wrap my head around it.
By just taking a quick glance at the Win Probability Graph, I’d argue it was probably off the board. No one would even bother betting on something like this. But with 2,500 games a season, at least a team or two will convert on a 1000/1 chance throughout the season. We shouldn’t be surprised by this because weird and unlikely things happen in baseball all the time, but we are and can’t process such unlikely outcomes.
As anyone who has gambled for a non-trivial length of time can attest, these streaks can last for days or weeks at a time. Here’s a lengthy Royals example from 2000
The Royals began the 2000 season with a respectable 4-3 record, and then things got crazy. In the last game of a four-game set with the Twins, the Royals held a 5-3 lead going into the ninth. This was back in the days when the Royals thought that closers were born, not made, and so they had paid real U.S. legal tender to Ricky Bottalico to be their closer. On this day, naturally, Bottalico blew the two-run lead in the ninth. (The Royals learned their lesson so well that after the season, they made Roberto Hernandez the focal point of the trade return they got for Johnny Damon.)
But then something funny happened. Damon led off the bottom of the ninth with a home run, and the Royals won, 6-5. The next night, the Orioles came to town; the Royals erased a 5-2 lead with three runs in the eighth, and after both teams struggled to score a putaway run, the Royals finally broke through in the bottom of the 12th, when with one out and Joe Randa on first base, backup catcher Brian Johnson went deep.
And then the next night, the Orioles held a 6-0 lead going into the bottom of the seventh, when the Royals broke through for four runs. The score remained 6-4 until the bottom of the ninth, when Gregg Zaun walked, Mark Quinn doubled to put two runners in scoring position…and Rey Sanchez lofted a flyball that snuck inside the fair pole in left field, prompting Denny Mathews to semi-famously exclaim “What is going on?” The Royals had won three straight games on a walk-off homer. In fact, these three games – I’m not making this up – are what brought the phrase “walk-off” into the national baseball lexicon. The term had been around for years – Dennis Eckersley originated it, I believe, calling it “a walk-off piece” when Kirk Gibson hit a particular home run off of him – but after these three games, ESPN.com started using the term to describe what the Royals had done, and the term has been with us ever since.
The next night, after Bottalico blew another save in the ninth, the Royals didn’t end it with a homer. No, with two out and one on in the bottom of the inning, Carlos Beltran ended the game with a lousy single. Four straight walk-off wins, three on a homer, and the Royals were 8-3 and tied for first place. They were the talk of baseball as they headed out on a nine-game road trip.
They lost all nine games.
In Monday’s Championship game, Butler had their worst scoring game since 2004 and the worst 2 point shooting percentage of any team in all of D1 for a game this season (via Ken Pomeroy). It’s unlucky for Butler that this happened with millions of people watching as opposed to away to Cleveland St., and it’s unlucky for it to happen to any one team in particular. With enough games, these vagaries balance themselves out to a degree which is what led Billy Beane to utter his semi-famous quip about the baseball playoffs being a crapshoot. Unlikely things will happen in any given game, and outside of a player or team’s baseline skill level, we’re powerless to do much about it.
This is what’s led me into futures becoming far and away the highest proportion of my gambling action. Assuming you don’t have any inside information, you’re usually looking at extremely small edges also assuming you’re on the right side of the game to begin with. With futures, the odds can be extremely favorable, moreso than any other gambling opportunity available.
The only reason the Red Sox losing four in a row is particularly notable is that it’s happened in the first four games of the season. Just like Butler, with lots of eyes and no where to hide, everything looks worse than it probably is in reality. Even if that reality involves scoring seven runs in five games. Over the next couple of days or weeks, I’ll be looking for opportunities to gamble on players or teams that are under/overperforming to start the season. It’s still a little too early to see any lines move very much, and it’s way too early to start grading our futures bets.
That said, Go Astros?
Lou’s MLB Over/Unders Part 2
5) Cincinnati Reds (Over 84.5)
What’s most striking about the Reds is the sheer depth of their team, extending to the high minors as well. Unlike teams such as the Cardinals, this depth means the floor is fairly low, so much so that I’d be somewhat shocked to see this team finish below .500. There’s not a lot of upside in terms of the key hitters so it would be just as surprising for Votto & Friends to surpass what they did last season. That said, they won 91 last season so there’s 6 games of slack here.
4) San Francisco Giants (Over 88)
A full season from Brandon Belt and Buster Posey should help this offense be the best the Giants have had since Barry Bonds retired. There’s some risk here with the starting pitching as the Giants have little depth beyond their initial five and would be best served by limiting Madison Bumgarner’s innings as he’s probably the highest risk of the bunch. 92 wins + a championship and their total is only 88? Not sure what I’m missing as unlike past editions, there’s no gaping hole/ overly washed up veteran anywhere in the lineup. Maybe Miguel Tejada.
3) Arizona Diamondbacks (Over 72.5)
Arizona’s bullpen was historically bad in 2010.
In 439 innings, they allowed 307 runs to score, 280 of which were earned. That comes out to a 5.74 ERA, over a full run more than the next worst team (the Cubs, 4.72). On top of that, the Diamondbacks also allowed 78 of 189 inherited runners to score, a 41% mark which ties the Dodgers for the worst in the Majors.
Assuming the bullpen improves (and by definition it has to), the only risk for under 73 here is health. Justin Upton, Kennedy and Hudson all need to stay on the field. The lineup should score enough runs to keep them competitive, if not all the way back flirting with .500.
2) Boston Red Sox (Over 95)
See what Pat wrote. A full season of Pedroia, Gonzalez and Crawford will really help the offense. While it might not appear so at the end of the year because they play in the East, Boston may have the best pitching staff in the league this year.
1) Seattle Mariners (Over 70)
Their offense was as bad as Arizona’s bullpen last year. While it won’t be good, it should rebound to below-average and combined with Felix + some other pitchers that will hopefully get them back into the 70s. I don’t really want to forecast a 10-win improvement. but that’s why it’s a one point play.
Lou’s MLB Over/Unders Part 1
Before we start, I’d like to point out my perfect record in NFL picks this past season. This doesn’t change in any way that I’m setting money on fire with these plays and I do have an actual play on the first three on this list. Unfortunately for me, I had to make up the other seven.
10) Philadelphia Phillies (under 97)
Thank you Ruben Amaro! You not only splashed out on a kickass free agent but also managed to build the oldest team in the majors, ensuring any gains will likely be washed away by steady decline throughout the lineup and the loss of Jason Werth. Dom Brown is the only projected starter under 29 and I wonder if he’ll have anyone to hang out with on the team. He also broke his hand. The Phillies won 97 last year with Rollins the only significant regular to underperform. They’ve already lost arguably MLB’s Most Irreplaceable Player for half the season and some books have adjusted their lines down as low as 95.
9) Tampa Bay Rays (Over 84.5)
Last season Tampa won 96 games. Pena, Bartlett, Crawford, Garza and the bullpen are all gone. In for them are Dan Johnson, Brignac, Manny/Damon/Jennings, Hellickson and a new bullpen. I’ll posit that Johnson can adequately replace Pena and his .196 average but close to league average play, Brignac can come close to Bartlett’s production and that Hellickson can provide 3/4 of Garza’s league average innings. This leaves a roughly a 10 win dropoff from Crawford and the bullpen and I just can’t see it. Both were beyond excellent in 2010, but the either the replacements and/or the returnees would have to really stink it up to drop that many games.
8) Houston Astros (Under 71.5)
This team is terrible and it won’t even be worth the effort to play their veterans over the younger players in September in hopes of eeking out a few extra meaningless wins and miracle covering the over like they’ve done the past few years. It’s irrelevant anyway as Hunter Pence is the only solidly above average player on the team and they have approximately zero advanced prospects. I’d also like to take the Astros for fewest wins in MLB this season if that’s available someplace. Carlos Zambrano is a better career hitter than both of Houston’s catchers. Interleague: Texas (6), Boston, Toronto, Tampa (3).
7) Anaheim L.A. Angels (Under 83)
Why does Mike Scioscia hate all catchers who hit better than he did??? The Angels did nothing productive this offseason, missing out on Carl Crawford, who was born to play for this team, and Adrian Beltre who signed with Texas. They also traded away sometimes catcher Mike Napoli for another center fielder, despite not having anyone at catcher who can actually hit. Napoli somehow ended up in Texas as well, so the AL west will have one team with an actual functioning offense. Despite my snarkiness, the offense is not terrible (though not helped by Kendry with an ‘S’ starting on the DL) and should the starting pitching go without too many injuries and the bullpen turn in an effective season, this over will ship. That’s a lot to ask of a team with little pitching depth to call upon IMHO.
6) Milwaukee Brewers (Under 85.5)
For a team that’s purportedly contending, even in the NL Central, they have a long way to go. The Brewers only won 76 games last season and while they added Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum, both of whom are very good, they also had to take Yuniesky Betancourt to play shortstop, who is not. Greinke is starting the season on the DL and should things not go well, Prince Fielder is a free agent to be who is not re-signing in Milwaukee and could be traded. 2b Rickie Weeks played 160 games last year in a contract season, after playing in 95, 118, 127 and 39 the last four seasons making JD Drew look durable in comparison. I’ll take under 130 games played please. Lastly, the interleague schedule is brutal: Twins (6) Yankees, Red Sox, Tampa (3).
Not Scared of Tiger
Pinnacle has an interesting golf prop on Tiger Woods:
From last weekend’s tournament
Rookie Brendan Steele couldn’t believe what he saw from one of golf’s all-time greats in his first tournament of the year on Sunday. He basically saw Woods, still winless since his infamous Thanksgiving car crash and ensuing public divorce, quit on the course.
“I don’t think he gave it everything today,” Steele told Sports Illustrated following the round at the Farmers Insurance Open. “Once it started going in the wrong direction, I don’t think it had his full attention.”
It just goes to show how far the world’s former No. 1 has fallen.Tiger never used to concede a shot, let alone give up on a back nine or an entire round. And he almost certainly would have never been called out by a rookie several years ago.
The thought of Woods alone used to send rookies cowering back to the clubhouse. His presence would make them wilt.
Now, Tiger’s competition has improved drastically and the once unbeatable aura that surrounded him has vanished. Players are no longer afraid of him on the course and apparently they’re willing to attack him off it as well.
As best I can tell, Tiger has won 14 Majors in 52 appearances starting with his first in at Augusta in 1997. That’s just over 25%. At -127, Pinnacle is basically installing Tiger as +630 on each major. As of right now that’s insane, or at least it would be for any other golfer not named Tiger Woods.
Phil Mickelson is the favorite to win this week’s Phoenix Open at +750 and I can’t imagine that the field in a Major is appreciably easier, nor that Tiger will be playing appreciably better than 90+% of the field in one anytime soon. His scoring average of over 71 since returning to golf in 2010 compares favorably with the likes of Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia and YE Yang. For any of them to receive less than +2500 to win a tournament, regardless of form would be ridiculous.
There was talk on PTI last week over Tiger’s slump and its causes, whether they were more mental or physical. Whatever the cause, there’s been no suggestion of “Old Tiger” returning as yet. The most likely scenario has him back as excellent but not Barry Bonds on steroids at some point and even with that, there’s still value here. Max bet on NO, -1whatever.
Lou & Pat’s Open Bets
As most of the readers of this site are aware, Pat & I have significant action with one another on some NFL regular season bets that are still very much undecided with 4 weeks to go. By far the most interesting is Kansas City to win the AFC West at 10:1. Here’s the situation headed into week 13 courtesy of Rany Jazayerli.
The Chargers are only one game back, and of course they still have a home game left against the Chiefs.
If the Chargers win that game, not only do they make up the difference in the standings, they would take the lead in tiebreakers. The teams would finish even head-to-head, but a loss to the Chargers would mean that the best record the Chiefs could finish with in-division is 3-3.
The Chargers would have two wins in the division, meaning they’d only need to beat either Oakland or Denver to win the tiebreaker. That’s because, even if the Chiefs and Chargers both finish with the same in-divison record, the Chargers will almost certainly win the third tiebreaker, which is a team’s record in common games.
The Chiefs and Chargers share 14 of the 16 games on their schedule; the only two games which are not shared are Buffalo and Cleveland (for the Chiefs) and New England and Cincinnati (for the Chargers). The Chiefs were 2-0 in non-common games; the Chargers lost to New England already and haven’t played the Bengals yet. If both teams finish, say, 10-6 overall, then the Chiefs would be 8-6 in common games; the Chargers would be at least 9-5, and would win the division.
The implications of all this:
1) There’s no way to over-state the importance of the Chiefs-Chargers game in San Diego in two weeks. For the Chargers, it’s really a must-win game – if they lose that game, they’ll be two games back and lose a tiebreaker. If the Chiefs win that game, they are guaranteed to finish ahead of San Diego in the standings if they finish 10-6. If the Chiefs beat San Diego, not only are they guaranteed to win the division if they finish 11-5, but their guaranteed to win the division if they finish 10-6 unless Oakland wins their last five games.
If the Chiefs lose to San Diego, they lose control of their destiny. If they lose to the Chargers, then even if the Chiefs win their other four games, they have to hope San Diego loses somewhere else along the way.
In short: the Chiefs are more likely to win the division with a 10-6 record and a victory in San Diego, than with an 11-5 record and a loss in San Diego.
This jives with all of the playoff odds reports I’ve seen. It also makes sense intuitively. The Chargers are clearly the better team but are one game behind. Assuming both teams win this weekend, it creates an optimal hedging opportunity in week 14 when the Chiefs travel to Kansas City. Given that it will be extremely difficult for the loser of that game to win the division, I can bet the Chargers moneyline with confidence and lock in a profit regardless of the result. We’ll go over those options in detail next week.
Pat & I also have our confidence pools for season wins. 5 points for the first team on the list decreasing to 1 for the last. Our picks were as follows:
- Pat
Oakland OVER 6
San Francisco OVER 8.5
San Diego UNDER 11
Tennessee OVER 8
NY Giants OVER 8.5
- Lou
Dallas UNDER 10
Baltimore OVER 10
Houston UNDER 8
SD UNDER 11
Cincinnati UNDER 8
After a rough first month, Pat’s picks are looking a lot better though I’m helped enormously by the fact the Dallas was kind enough to hit their under by week 8 or so. One way to see where we stand is by how many wins or losses are required by each team for us to hit our respective numbers. I have already hit on Dallas and Cincinnati, but every other bet is still alive. These are all with 5 games to play with the exception of Houston who lost last night.
Pat
Oakland 2 wins (1 to push)
San Francisco (5 wins)
San Diego 1 loss (0 to push)
Tennessee 4 wins (3 to push)
NY Giants 2 wins
Lou
Dallas 0 losses
Baltimore 3 wins (2 to push)
Houston 2 losses (1 to push, from 4 games)
San Diego 1 loss (0 to push)
Cincinnati 0 losses
If San Francisco and Houston win some games in December, this will become much closer again. Of course, Pat will crush me in baseball wins again in the spring and the cycle will likely continue.
Glad I Spent 600+ Words Ripping Chicago
The curse of the blog continues? In all fairness it was a very well played game, at home, by the Bears and absolutely horrendous play calling by the Eagles. Can anyone explain to me why the Eagles kicked field goals in the 4th quarter down 31-13 and 31-16?
Some other notes:
– We’ve now found the level of quarterback at which the Texans defense becomes NFL level calibre. That level is called Rusty Smith.
– Is Matt Lineart really a worse QB than the collection of guys Arizona has been trotting out all season?
– Packers/Falcons was the best game I’ve seen all season.
– Week 13 lines are up. Who is the 3-team teaser this week?
Lastly, some Grey Cup highlights from a video recording on some Canadian dude’s TV. Sounds about right.
Da Bears
I’m on record publicly as being skeptical of the Bears’ success so far this season (and Tampa to a lesser extent, though I’ll leave that for another post). It’s not that Chicago has a terrible team, they’re easily a mid-table side capable of beating most teams at home and are expected underdogs on the road versus all but the bottom 20-25% of the league. Their defense is very good and their special teams are back to being excellent again.
The offense however, is offensive. They’ve yet to score 30 points in a game this season and are still near the bottom of the league in short yardage, an improvement over ranking 32nd in 2009. Cutler and the skill players are not bad, but obviously their line is atrocious and is preventing the Bears from being a Super Bowl contender.
Similar to college basketball, road records can often tell you a lot about the actual quality of a team. Beating teams at home isn’t particularly indicative of a good team. Teams with poor home records, however, are almost never good. Only six teams have recorded four or more road wins this season: Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa and Chicago. The first three are among the best in the league, Miami has been horribly unlucky and I’ll cover Tampa in a later post. Looking at the Bears road wins, they’ve beaten two teams without an NFL caliber QB (Carolina and Miami), the 2-8 Bills and the 3-7 Cowboys. Sorry if I’m not overly convinced.
All of this is merely a preview for determining the proper odds on Chicago losing their last 6 games in a row. Their schedule is arguably the toughest in the league down the stretch:
vs PHI (+3.5) (Eagles ML is -178)
@ DET
vs NE
@ MIN
vs NYJ
@ GB
If we set lines on all of these games, we can then convert to an approximate moneyline and then throw all of these in a parlay calculator to see what the payout should be.
We’ll start with the Packers because it’s the easiest of the 5 remaining to handicap. The Jets host the Bungles this weekend and Baltimore is at home to Tampa. Both of those games are a similar type matchup to Bears @ Green Bay and those games are both -9, -400.
New England and the Jets are both of similar quality to the Eagles and we’ll install both of them at -4, -200.
This leaves divisional road games at Detroit and Minnesota. Detroit is 2-2 at home, routing the Rams, beating the Redskins and losing by a FG to the Jets and Eagles. They are 6.5 point underdogs Thursday at home to New England. I could make an argument Detroit should be favored, but we’ll make the game a pickem for our purposes here. As far as Minnesota, they could have given up on the season by the time this game rolls around. I think this is the Bears best chance to win out of the 6 and will make Minnesota a +1.5, +120 underdog.
Entering these in the parlay calculator (-400, -200, -200, -178, -100, +120) yields a payout of 18.33/1. If you up New England and the Jets to -6, -270 favorites, the payout drops to 15.13 which is pretty close to what I offered Pat if I may say so…
I’ll still take action on this at 15, but there’s no way I can do 12. Even moving the Lions to -140 and the Packers to -450, along with the Jets @ Pats adjustments still leaves it at 12.5. I’ll offer Pat a compromise and say I’m willing to go a low as 14:1 just because I think this will be a fun bet to make and as Pat mentioned, I can’t actually bet this anywhere else.
The marathon continues…
Too soon. I should’ve listened to the Tribe’s coach when he said that it would be January before they hit their stride. Hindsight is 20/20. Have no fear, as the marathon continues there will be plenty of opportunities to get back in the game…starting now.
I woke up to see Northeastern v S. Illinois on the schedule for 10am. I thought, “Didn’t Northeastern put a guard in the NBA from last year?” Sure enough, they did. It will have to take a while to fill that void in a program that isn’t traditionally known for being a powerhouse. It’s also a put up or shut up year for head coach Chris Lowery of the Salukis. No better time to start than with a comfortable home victory. The Pick: Salukis -5.5
Why not tease it with Baylor? OK, I will. Salukis -1.5, Baylor -11.5.
Impulse Bets
Just for fun…here are my NBA impulse bets of the eve. Thunder +6.5 at Utah. Utah is coming off a terrific road trip where they came from behind (no pun intended) in every single win. They’ve been back in town just long enough to pat themselves on the back, call up the mistresses, and let down their guard. OK City, on the other hand, knows every W is crucial. They’ve been playing better as of late and are disappointed in last night’s defeat to the Spurs. Back to backs won’t affect this young team at this point of the season and something tells me they want to play right now. The pick: OK City +6.5
2. Clippers -2 at home to the Nets. The Clippers are too talented to lose all their games. They won’t win many, but something tells me a bad Nets team traveling across the country is right up their alley to impress the home crowd. Let’s just hope it’s not by 1 pt. The pick: Clippers -2.
“It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year”
Yes, it may be a little early for bowl commercials, but with the NFL in midseason form, college football entering rivalry/championship weekends, NBA entering early season stride, and ESPN’s 24 hour college bball marathon; it’s the perfect time to begin cataloging what is sure to be a whole lotta gambling. Let us begin:
NCAA bball-How could we forget the run William and Mary had at the end of the 2009 season? They almost beat, and definitely covered, UNC in the NIT (Oh, yeah, there was another tourney going on as well)? I didn’t forget, though. I also didn’t forget that they beat Richmond last year, either. They did lose several key players to graduation(shocking), but at a program like W&M they don’t rebuild, they reload. All joking aside, experience and home court will be with the Spiders tonight. However, playing a half within a basket of UVA on the road gave these kids all the confidence they need to know they can compete. Marcus Kitts (center) missed most of the second half due to illness and foul trouble, and perhaps their best gaurd, Kendrix Brown, was slowed due to an ankle injury. Both of these guys will be looking to redeem themselves on Monday. W&M also didn’t shoot very well. Their mantra is DEFENSE, ball control, and 3-pt jump shots. Fortunately, defense is the one thing they can control, and getting back to familiar competition in a smaller arena will make these shooters feel right at home. The pick: W&M +16
Now, if you know me, you would be very familiar with the fact that I sabotage all good picks with unnecessary, ridiculous ties to parlays and teasers. So here’s how I’ll ruin this one:
1. Tribe- +23, St Johns +11, VCU -5.5…Why, you ask? First, St Johns. Four words: Steve Lavin, ten seniors. St Mary’s better muster up all that magic from last season, and hope that the bongs were put down 3 months ago instead of 3 weeks ago. Second, VCU. VCU has consistently been a competitive mid major. I see no reasons why this won’t continue. Winthrop, however, I think is a far cry from the team that made a NCAA run several years ago. They opened this year with an unimpressive win over Queens, NC. Seriously, I’m not sure if this was a rec team, tech school, or a legitimate college bball team. I’ve lived in NC and never heard of Queens. I think it may be in Charlotte but I’m not sure. Either way, VCU should win fairly easily. The lines listed above reflect a -130 7 pt teaser. I also took Tribe +20, St Johns +8, and VCU -8.5 in a risk 40 to win 72.
