Author: lou
Hilton Contest Picks Week 2
Texans +6.5
Jaguars +2.5
Colts +7
Steelers -5.5
49ers +14
Survivor: Raiders
Season: 4-1-0, 1-0
Hilton Contest Picks Week 1
Bears +6.5
Browns +8.5
Jaguars +5
Vikings -3
Washington -1
Survivor Pick: Bills
YTD 0-0
-Lou
2017 NFL Over Unders – Lou
My 5 vs. Pat. Most of these were discussed on this week’s podcast w/ Sean
5) Chicago Over 5.5
4) Chargers Over 7.5
3) Rams Over 5.5
2) Raiders Under 10
1) Bungles Under 8.5
Lou’s MLB Over/Unders
My results on these have declined over the past few years. Who knew that spending markedly less time on something could result in inferior results?
10 Braves Over 74.5
9 Cubs under 96.5
8 Rangers Over 85.5
7 Yankees Under 82.5
6 Tigers Under 82.5
5 Mariners Under 85.5
4 Rockies Under 80.5
3 Reds Under 69.5
2 Nationals Over 90.5
1 Phillies Under 72.5
Homer pick to start but a lot of Unders this year. NL is woefully unbalanced so it’s hard to identify a pure .500 team. If there’s true separation by June, we could really see things diverge in the 2nd half of the season. Reds and Phillies should be the two worst teams along with San Diego and I have no idea how the Rockies total is at 80.5. In the AL, the Yankees need several things to go right to hit their over. I think the Tigers and Mariners are sending out the two oldest lineups in baseball without the rotation to really cover as backup.
Division Winner Guesses:
AL East – Boston
AL Central – Cleveland
AL West – Houston
NL East – Washington
NL Central – Chicago
NL West – San Francisco
2016 NFL Over/Unders
My Confidence is low but the picks are high. Not enough rooting for failure for my liking:
5) Jets Over 8
4) Chiefs Over 9.5
3) Falcons Under 7.5
2) Vikings Under 9.5
1) Lions Over 7
Also notable and not in any order:
Bengals Over 9.5
Washington Under 7.5
Saints Over 7
Rams Over 7.5
-Lou
2016 MLB Over/Unders
A tradition like many, many others. Each year Pat and I attempt to pick 10 teams to exceed or elude their published Vegas win total with varying degrees of success. Winner gets a pub crawl that will likely never happen in reality. We need to change the prize to a good bottle of whiskey or something. Confidence scoring. Forward.
10 Points – Oakland OVER 75.5
9) Pittsburgh UNDER 86.5
8) Baltimore UNDER 79.5
7) Seattle OVER 82.5
6) Cleveland OVER 85.5
5) Miami OVER 78.5
4) LA Dodgers OVER 88.5
3) St. Louis UNDER 87.5
2) Tampa OVER 82.5
1) San Diego UNDER 73.5
If I was doing tiers, we would have Oakland and Pittsburgh in tier 1, Baltimore and Seattle in 2, Cleveland, Miami and the Dodgers in 3 and everyone else in tier 4. I think the AL West will be a bloodbath with all five teams having a legitimate chance to win the division, kind of like the AL East in recent seasons only without the pervasive mediocrity. Cubs seem likely to run away with the Central but I was scared off of their move from 90 to 93.5 on the totals so I’m being somewhat derivative with unders on PIT and STL. Miami gets on partly due to getting 40 games versus the Phillies and Braves.
Division Winner Guesses:
AL East – Toronto
AL Central – Cleveland
AL West – Oakland
NL East – Miami
NL Central – Chicago
NL West – Los Angeles
We’ve Gone Minimalist
I’ll see if I can add the MGM Sportsbook header back though
2015 NFL Over/Unders
Unlike baseball, this is a best of 5 format between Pat, Sean and myself. Also unlike baseball, I have not been getting progressively worse over the past several seasons. Winner gets a pub crawl and the losers have to watch. Here are my plays and sad justifications…
5) Arizona UNDER 8.5
I don’t think there is any unit on this team one can point to and state that it’s improved from last year. Somehow this team went 11-5 despite playing only three good games (weeks 9-11) in the entire fucking season. They should have finished 5-11 and spared everyone the worst playoff performance by a quarterback since Jake Delhomme.
4) Atlanta OVER 8.5
Hometown pick as the Falcons get the easiest schedule in the NFL and an actual player who can rush the opposing quarterback! That should turn the secondary from swiss cheese into something malleable but without massive holes leaving the offensive line as the only area of significant weakness. Having the best QB in the division also helps compared with an aging interception machine, wet dream option QB and black Johnny Manziel
3) Dallas OVER 9.5
The Falcons with Dallas’s offensive line would win at least 13 games. Dallas can beat up nearly every opponent and slow things down just enough to grind out lots of wins that fail to cover the spread. We can all marvel as Tony Romo morphs in to present day Chris Chandler right in front of us.
2) Tennessee OVER 5.5
Here’s an instance where I would feel far more comfortable backing this shitty team if the coaching staff were competent enough to take what their players are actually good at and plan on accentuating those things instead of forcing a scheme and then bitching about how the players can’t execute. Fortunately, Marcus Mariota is good enough to overcome this handicap with a cupcake schedule and division and the fact that this is the least popular team in the NFL and most likely candidate for the black and white game of the week.
1) Washington UNDER 6.5
See Sean’s post below. We here at Miracle Covers enjoy betting on failure and hopefully they’ll win just enough to pick #2 in the draft again.
2015 MLB Season Win Picks
Happy Opening Day. Here are my picks for 2015. Last season Pat and I did extremely well, with Pat winning because I couldn’t successfully order my plays. I missed on 10 and 9 and hit on 8-1. Since we do confidence scoring, this is a bad thing. Regardless here is the list, of which I am very confident about my 10 point play, and much less so about 9-1. I also have significant action on Tampa Bay to win the AL East at +740.
10 Tampa OVER 79.5
9 Cincinnati UNDER 78.5
8 Cleveland OVER 82.5
7 Colorado OVER 71.5
6 Baltimore UNDER 82.5
5 Texas UNDER 76
4 Oakland OVER 81.5
3 San Francisco UNDER 84.5
2 Houston OVER 75.5
1 San Diego UNDER 84.5
April 4
A hockey play as we get ready to end the regular season: Red Wings +135 @ Minnesota
