Author: lou
March 30
Still silent here on the hockey front as the regular season creeps to an end. A lot of our models break down toward the end of the season with a larger gap in between teams contending versus not that we haven’t been able to model effectively. Working on baseball here the past few days and into this week.
Will post any plays that may come up. Oilers are a lean at +175 tonight.
March 26
One of our subtle enjoyments here at miracle Covers is betting on failure, and we’re happily getting the opportunity to be involved in some crappy NHL games tonight. In tankapolooza, we have Arizona visiting Buffalo and we are taking UNDER 5 +105 and in another relatively crap game, Colorado @ Vancouver UNDER 5 +120, both for 1/2u. Good luck to all tonight.
March 25
No plays yesterday and nothing again today as we wind down the season. Lots of games that would be plays are excluded here in March as non-playoff contending underdog teams are comparatively weaker in a lot of matchups this time of year. We are trying to pick our spots but it’s been sparse the past few weeks. Or coinflip on Colorado was a loser on Monday 3-2.
Hopefully some action tomorrow.
March 23
Back with some hockey plays tonight. Thanks to Sean for running things with a correct sport the past few days. We have a weighted coinflip in Calgary as Colorado visits getting +120. I have this as a 50:50 game so feel free to scale your own wager accordingly. Devils and Hurricanes are options for sadists, of which I am not.
March 19
I am clearly a secret Canadian, posting about hockey in March instead of being a proper American and delving into the NCAA tournament in all its glory. Some actual plays tonight breaking a lengthy streak of zeroes:
All 1/2u plays:
Detroit @ Florida -110
St. Louis/Winnipeg UNDER 5 -105
Colorado @ Arizona +145
Paddys
Lots of random drunkenness today making me long for days of zero responsibility…
Likely nothing doing again in hockey tonight, but one trend that I want to point out that we missed at this point due to sheer ignorance. The NIT has become the home of experimental rules changes in college basketball and they’ve made a substantial one this year, changing the shot clock from 35 seconds to 30. This seems a nominal change, but the totals for NIT games are all up 6-15 points from their openers. People are just laying into books for obscene amounts though the value is now gone and the lines are probably overadjusted at this point to stem the tide.
There should be an expected 8-12 extra possessions a game because of the change, which at a point per possession would account for the line adjustments. Something to keep in mind for future seasons and tournaments at the very least.
The lines for region winners and on Kentucky to win look pretty correct to me, but I’m far from a college hoops expert. Best I can see that’s not a longshot is Villanova at or around 2:1 in the east.
March 16
Took yesterday off and missed what would have been a small losing 1-1 day with Pittsburgh and St. Louis the preferred plays. Four games tonight and the only thing remotely close is Washington -1.5 @ Buffalo. Montreal visits Tampa in what should be an excellent game but an unbettable one. More baseball as we get closer to Opening Day.
Pi Day
2-1 for a solid winning day yesterday of +1.2u. Two plays tonight:
Montreal @ Islanders -115
Calgary @ Colorado -144
March 13
Carolina was a loser yesterday. Three plays tonight:
Ottawa +160 @ Islanders
Dallas +160 @ Washington
Edmonton @ Columbus -1.5 +140
March 12
Back on the wagon here with only a few weeks left to go in the season. I still have action on another Tampa team, the Lightning, to win the division, conference and championship at pretty good odds to keep things interesting as our volume dies down. Single play tonight, Dallas @ Carolina -110. Brave Souls can attempt Arizona at or around +200 but I will not be joining.
