NFL Week 15 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
I don’t know and haven’t measured how relevant road records are come playoff time, but I’d be willing to believe there’s a predictive element in there someplace. Teams that win at home are taking care of their business; teams that win on the road, even against bad teams, are legitimately good. Below are the current road records for all teams to date without further comment.
NFC
New Orleans Saints 7-0
Philadelphia Eagles 5-2
Arizona Cardinals 5-2
Minnesota Vikings 4-2
Green Bay Packers 4-2
Dallas Cowboys 3-3
New York Giants 3-3
Carolina Panthers 2-5
Atlanta Falcons 1-5
Chicago Bears 1-5
San Francisco 49ers 1-5
Seattle Seahawks 1-5
Washington Redskins 1-6
St. Louis Rams 1-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-6
Detroit Lions 0-7
AFC
Indianapolis Colts 6-0
San Diego Chargers 6-1
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2
New York Jets 4-3
Denver Broncos 4-3
Houston Texans 3-3
Miami Dolphins 3-4
Buffalo Bills 3-4
Baltimore Ravens 2-4
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-4
Oakland Raiders 2-4
Kansas City Chiefs 2-4
Pittsburgh Steelers 2-5
Tennessee Titans 2-5
New England Patriots 1-5
Cleveland Browns 1-6
Stats of the Week
1. Miami and New England both won on Sunday despite being -3 in turnovers. The last 2 teams to win with a -3 turnover differential were San Francisco and Atlanta in week 16 & 17 of 2008, both against the Rams.
2. 500 yards of offense in a loss is both rare and difficult to accomplish. Check out this list of underachievers:
New York Giants v. Philadelphia Week 14, 2009 (512)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Week 11, 2009 (516)
Denver Broncos v. Buffalo Week 16, 2008 (532)
New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Week 10, 2008 (521)
New Orleans Saints v. Denver Week 3, 2008 (502)
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Week 17, 2007 (501)*
Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco Week 12, 2007 (552)
Cincinnati Bengals v Cleveland Week 3, 2007 (531)
*Seattle rested their starters in this game and Seneca Wallace played extensively.
Will need to look at this further, but this might be a trend. I’ll definitely be looking at Pittsburgh and NY Giants over win total next season.
3. The Lions are allowing a league worst 31.2 points/game on the year. The only two teams they’ve held under 20 are the Redskins and Rams (both at home). Detroit is 3-9-1 against the spread this season.
4. Rushing Yards – 2009
1. Chris Johnson · TEN 1626
2. Steven Jackson · STL 1279
3. Adrian Peterson · MIN 1200
4. Thomas Jones · NYJ 1167
5. Maurice Jones-Drew · JAX 1136
5. The Arizona Cardinals cannot turn the ball over and win. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 20-1 with a positive turnover margin and 2-17 when it’s negative. It’s not new that teams that turn the ball over tend to lose, but the Cardinals are an extreme example.
6. The Jacksonville Jaguars have averaged 15.3 points/game in their last 9 outings. The Redskins are going the other way, having averaged 24.2 in their last 5.
7. New Orleans QB Drew Brees leads the NFL with a 112.3 passer rating this season which would be the 5th highest all-time. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game this season.
8. The San Diego Super Chargers are the only team besides the Saints to score at least 20 points in every game this season. Their offense is possibly the most consistent in the league. The Chargers also have a total of 13 turnovers on the season and had only one game with under 300 yards of offense. Their win on Sunday was their 8th in a row.
9. The Chicago Bears are last in the NFL in rushing.
10. The Green Bay Packers defense currently ranks 2nd in the NFL behind the Jets.
Early Leans
Minnesota @ Carolina +9
New England @ Buffalo +7
NY Giants @ Washington +3
Bungles @ San Diego -7
No Jets line yet, but 7 or less would be appealing at home to Atlanta.
