2018 Divisional NFL
3-0-1 last week in the column…still alive for the undefeated run, although would of been 4-0 if it wasn’t for Janikowski’s hilariously fat kicker moment; the best of the weekend IMO.
Here are my picks (* are the ones I actually bet on):
Kansas City -4.5
With Mike Mitchell out (who has been great for Indy since picking him up from Philly), as well as Eric Berry out most likely, and everyone on offense playing (minus Kareem Hunt kicking a poor girl like an XP)…..I expect a lot of scoring in this one by two young QBs who are playing in their best form. I love the Over 57* (-115) for this reason, as well as the fact that one defense stink (KC) and the other plays a bend but don’t break Cover 2 (Indy). I do expect KC to handle business and stay a TD ahead, especially Kelce having a big game with Mitchell out…..but if they struggle early, the fans might get restless again as KC has lost EVERYTIME they have had a bye in their first game. It’s a mental block they need to overcome…..but Mahomes is probably the guy to do it. I will say, if the game goes UNDER….Colts probably win.
LA Rams -7
This is the one game I have a hard time betting on straight up, wish it was -5…..I can’t trust neither Goff or Dak….but putting in a teaser with NO (-8) at -110* because I am playing that McVeigh outcoaches Garrett. The Rams suck at LB, so you’d think Zeke could have a big game…the problem is that Dallas who has lost Allen Hurns for the year, and a limp Cole Beasley, won’t probably be able to find joy past a Rams secondary that is now fully healthy so they will load up vs the run. Talib will take on Cooper, so that probably cancels out. Dallas will really miss having a even halfway decent TE in this game. I can see Dallas maybe keeping it close, but they settle for too many field goals and Jason Garrett will nit this up at some point and cost his team the game vs a Rams side that can score. The only reason they really won vs Seattle last week is that Brian Schottenheimer, who comes from a lineage of nits, was actually nittier than Garrett…which is hard to do.
LA Chargers +4.5
LA definitely could win this game…..they are the better team 1-53. But it will be cold and maybe snowy and the Chargers and HC Anthony Lynn could do Chargery-things like how they almost set a game they had in control on fire last week with blocked punts, FGs, and changing the defensive strategy that was working, going from a 4-3-3 with DBs to match the 11-on-11 speed zone read…..to a Cover 3 prevent that got the Ravens back into the game. The Pats will have to run the ball, and maybe able to vs a Chargers team decimated at LB. But that usually doesn’t translate to a blowout win. I expect this to be low scoring, with Tom Brady maybe driving it down for a last second FG.
Saints -8 (-105)*
My big play of the weekend. Sean Payton gave the team a great motivating speech, and Stephen A. Smith didn’t even mention Drew Brees in his top 5 QBs left in the playoffs, so they are gonna have a chip on their shoulder with the defending champs in town. Philly has guile and toughness, but they were kept in the game by a Bears team who tends to do that (as well as an innovative coach who calls too cute plays at times; that 2 pt play with Khalil Mack was atrocious and I think cost them the game way more than Cody Parkey’s kick). Nick Foles threw 2 picks last week…the Bears only converted into 6 points. If he does that this week, the Saints will get TDs, and that (along with the Saints and their Hulk like invincibility in the Superdome) should see them through.
