NFL Sunday
2-0 after last night (although we got miracle covered for the side stuff)…our quest vs the spread is still alive! Today is the gauntlet however as these games as incredibly hard to pick, IMO. For example:
Carolina just made gambling history: they sweated out a cover in a home playoff game against an offense that couldn't break 100 total yards.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 4, 2015
Cincinnati +4 (EVEN, started at -105)
This was tough game to pick. Luck > Dalton at the QB position….but the Bengals have advantages everywhere else except WR (AJ Green is out) and TE (no Jermaine Gresham). Still, something smells fishy about the Colts here; they play in the crappy AFC South and can’t stop the run. The key is the fact I think the Bengals can run on Indy’s defense with Bernard and Hill, and keep things close. Luck is still young where he’ll make a mistake or two during his young career in these big games; he Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy (he was in the first matchup, a 27-0 win where he had 2 TDs), however, I might of taken the Colts. The majority of the money is on the Colts, around 72%. Betting on Marvin Lewis slightly scares me, however. But before I make my next pick, however, let me burn a timeout….
Dallas -7.5 (+140, started at +120)
All year, I have been talking up how much I wanted to bet against the Lions in big spots. Stafford 0-16 on the road against winning teams. The Lions’ propensity to get personal fouls at the worst times. Jim Caldwell’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” demeanor. And of COURSE the gambling gods torture me with one of Darts’ unwritten rules of miracle covers: “Don’t bet on the Cowboys after January”. Alas, I must take Romo here; the Cowboys are playing great and as bad as Romo is in big games, Stafford is that much worse. It also seems like it is destiny that Seattle and Dallas meet in the NFC Championship game as they are, IMO, the two most talented teams in the NFC.
TEASER: CIN +4 and DAL -7.5
