Vegas Thunder
First dispatch from Vegas and the WSOP here…..had a good cash game session last night, and when I checked into my room, the floor I was staying on, smelled like a rap concert. Good karma, indeed.
I’m going to take all of the profit I made from poker and put it on the Thunder -3 (now -3.5 and moving quick), as well as tease them with the over 207, all at -110.
I like the Thunder for 4 reasons:
1) They are the second best scoring team at home, behind the Warriors. They have won 22 out of their last 24 games at home. This means Ibaka doesn’t have to play much/well to make a difference like he will have to in a potential Game 7.
2) The Spurs are old and old teams tend to not do so well on the one day turnaround. The Celtics during the Garnett years were famous for this.
3) “The Game 6, down 3-2 at home” bet theory I have which has been pretty +EV for me over various sports in my betting years. They also got blown out last game. Teams usually respond with their backs against the wall here.
4) The NBA fix is in. The Heat/Pacers series has been a snorefest, with the only story off interest being Lance Stevenson affectionately blowing into LeBron’s ear. This has been a home-and-home series. The NBA needs that Game 7 revenue, and I smell either Duncan enemy Joey Crawford or Dick Bavetta getting called out of the bullpen here.
I also like the Mets +116 tonight against the Phillies. Their starting pitcher Montero can no where be as bad as this guy:
Funny part is, 50 Cent was reportedly throwing strikes in warm-ups, just like the Mets’ bullpen.
