Month: January 2015
January 10
Several losers yesterday, 0-1 NHL with New Jersey losing in OT and 1-2 in NBA which should really not be seriously followed, though I have three more plays tonight posted below. One new year’s resolution for me is to become more comfortable going with large amounts of public money in hockey. Boston and Minnesota both won this afternoon and were both at pretty good prices but also with 70% of the money on them. The public plays are generally losers, but it doesn’t mean they always are (or else gambling would be very, very different). Onto the plays:
NBA first:
Celtics +11.5 @ Toronto
Utah +11.5 @ Houston
Magic +14 @ Portland
And some NHL:
Islanders @ Columbus UNDER 5.5 1/2u
The other interesting game tonight is Calgary getting +165 @ Vancouver. Calgary is on a back-to-back and missing their normal backup Ramo who is out injured. Jonas Hiller the starter had a very busy night yesterday, so the question is whether to start him or a random AHL guy called up today. I’d love to jump in here but it may be a pass or half unit only.
UPDATE: The unproven Finn Joni Ortio gets the nod for Calgary +177 (1/2) @ Vancouver
NFL Saturday
2-2 last week – but should of been 3-1; how the fuck did I take Andy Dalton on the road vs Andrew Luck (oh wait, I was hungover; thanks Pat!)?
I, like alot of sharps, over thought that one a bit because of the fact even though Indy is an incredibly flawed team…..they are still better than the Bengals. The game was depressing because Cincy actually had a chance to cover without their #1 TE/WR/OL/MLB, that’s how average Indy is. I took Indy in the second half anyway so we made our money back.
The Dallas/Detroit game was essentially a WWE match and everyone lost who bet on that game, even if you won money. The only real winner is the NFL: they got their Green Bay vs Dallas matchup for tomorrow which will be a ratings MONSTER.
Here are the picks:
Seattle -11 (-105)
I’m also throwing this one in a shit ton of teasers. It’s actually at 11.5 now on Bovada. Carolina has good qualities, mainly it’s defense. These two teams have played 2 close games in the past 3 years, but those games were in Carolina and Carolina had Steve Smith (who isn’t this great player, but intangible wise, he wouldn’t put up with Sherman’s shit). I actually think taking Carolina in the 1st Half (+7) isn’t a bad play. But I eventually think the rubber band will break and Seattle pulls away at home in this one. I just can’t see Carolina’s offense lead by a banged up Cam Newton putting up 17 points on the best defense in the NFL, especially on the road. The only outlier is the Carolina defense or special teams scoring a TD; some guy named Brenton Bersin (who went to Wafford in South Carolina) is returning punts and muffed one last week (but could be a Snow Leopard sleeper in 2015, along with Cincy’s Rex Burkhead). I will also throw this in a teaser with the under (40) as well as with Denver -7. One more thing that makes me confident about this one; as you see in the picture below, these Carolina players take a “selfie” after winning a Wild Card Game, at home vs Ryan Lindley, where they made it a sweat for a win despite the fact the opposing team gained JUST 78 yards. These guys are just happy to be here.
New England -7
Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens have me worried like a mom late on a Saturday night when her teenage kids are out on the town. Flacco is awesome in the playoffs; their front 7 is great and the Pats OL is average at best. BUT: the Ravens still have flaws they can’t escape. Gronkowski is 100%, and they have some of the worst safety play in the NFL, being in the bottom 3 on allowing 20+ and 40+ or more pass plays. The Pats aren’t the best deep ball team, but I think one thing to come away with is that last year, the Pats were able to run the ball on the Ravens in a 41-7 win, and Blount had a big day. If they can duplicate those efforts, it will setup the PA and open up the middle of the field. Vereen will also be important in the sprint draw and pass game with screens, wheel routes and flat outs. The Ravens on the road vs actual defenses this year have been abysmal; the Pats’ defense is the best in over 10 years and I believe the second best defense left in the tournament. Revis will take out Steve Smith and the defensive line will keep Forsett in check. If Dennis Pitta was healthy in this game, I’d probably like the Ravens’ line more to keep it close…..but in the end, I just think the NFL will make sure that NE vs DEN will happen for the ratings. Wait, what? I only thought that happens in the NBA?
Side Thoughts:
Bovada is running a prop: Do all four home teams win? +190. This hasn’t happened since 2004; so it could be due. I’ve jumped on this essentially 4 team ML parlay.
Also, I like CJ Anderson at 6-to-1 to be the weekend’s rushing leader (I’ll expand more on the Denver game tomorrow) and Dez Bryant to Score a TD (-140) and Most Receiving Yards at 13/2 and well as two players I recommend for you Daily Fantasy Football degens.
1/10
Some last-second Premier plays. Rebecca Lowe just said “this is how you do it” talking about Premier League Extra Time features. A sign that these picks will win? Undoubtedly.
Swansea/West Ham Under 2.5 -102 @ 16
Leicester (pk and -.5) -113 @ 16
YTD : -19.21
MTD : -19.21
****UPDATE****
Patriots -7 +103 @ 18
I am surprised by everything with this line. I am surprised it is plus money on the 7, I am surprised 7 isn’t 9, and I am surprised the majority of the money is on the Ravens.
January 9
Nothing doing yesterday. One NHL game for 1/2u tonight and that’s the Devils +150 at home to the Islanders. We are fading every traditional hockey stat and some sharps on this one so feel free to pass. Some NBA action as well:
Chicago PK EVEN @ Washington
Utah +11.5 @ Oklahoma
Memphis +1.5 @ New Orleans
1/8 – This is Hockey Do It
Making a half dozen or so very vanilla (even by hockey standards) plays tonight. Couple of slight faves, couple of slight dogs, and one substantial favorite for MLs, couple of unders on 5.5 lines. Nothing revolutionary. Let’s see what happens. If I was sipping on something I’d probably tie these together in a 4 dollar parlay or something, another time…
All plays @ 12
Bruins ML -169
Hurricanes ML -205
Stars ML +137
Jets ML -108
Rangers ML +144
Sharks/Blues Under 5.5 -137
Jets/Coyotes Under 5.5 -140
YTD : -22.01
MTD : -22.01
Jan 8
Mixed but winning day for us yesterday. Boston and Washington were winners but our under lost and NBA plays went 1-1. Nothing doing for me this evening, but those scrounging for a play can try Dallas +140 or so away to Nashville. I’ll try and have one more look before the 8PM games, but it looks likely today will be a pass all around.
Jan 7
Our single play on the Sharks last night was a winner, 4-3 in overtime. Some confirmed action early tonight:
Boston +130 @ Pittsburgh
Washington @ Toronto UNDER 5.5
NBA because I’m an idiot Houston -6 @ Cleveland
Potentially adding the Caps straight up at -125 or so, Red Wings and Pacers
UPDATE 1: Washington -125 @ Toronto. Indiana +11.5 @ Golden State
January 6
A nothing day yesterday and close to a nothing day again today. San Jose +125 @ Minnesota is our only play.
Day 5
1-2 in yesterday’s games as bowl season effectively comes to an end. I suspect there may be action on Ohio St. but I also could not even tell you when the game is scheduled for so we’ll leave that for next week. A pretty barren evening tonight.
NFL Sunday
2-0 after last night (although we got miracle covered for the side stuff)…our quest vs the spread is still alive! Today is the gauntlet however as these games as incredibly hard to pick, IMO. For example:
Carolina just made gambling history: they sweated out a cover in a home playoff game against an offense that couldn't break 100 total yards.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 4, 2015
Cincinnati +4 (EVEN, started at -105)
This was tough game to pick. Luck > Dalton at the QB position….but the Bengals have advantages everywhere else except WR (AJ Green is out) and TE (no Jermaine Gresham). Still, something smells fishy about the Colts here; they play in the crappy AFC South and can’t stop the run. The key is the fact I think the Bengals can run on Indy’s defense with Bernard and Hill, and keep things close. Luck is still young where he’ll make a mistake or two during his young career in these big games; he Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy (he was in the first matchup, a 27-0 win where he had 2 TDs), however, I might of taken the Colts. The majority of the money is on the Colts, around 72%. Betting on Marvin Lewis slightly scares me, however. But before I make my next pick, however, let me burn a timeout….
Dallas -7.5 (+140, started at +120)
All year, I have been talking up how much I wanted to bet against the Lions in big spots. Stafford 0-16 on the road against winning teams. The Lions’ propensity to get personal fouls at the worst times. Jim Caldwell’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” demeanor. And of COURSE the gambling gods torture me with one of Darts’ unwritten rules of miracle covers: “Don’t bet on the Cowboys after January”. Alas, I must take Romo here; the Cowboys are playing great and as bad as Romo is in big games, Stafford is that much worse. It also seems like it is destiny that Seattle and Dallas meet in the NFC Championship game as they are, IMO, the two most talented teams in the NFC.
TEASER: CIN +4 and DAL -7.5
