Month: November 2014
Tuesday
Apologies for the late post. At least one play here tonight and it starts very soon:
San Jose @ Florida +140
There should be one more hockey game and possibly an NBA game later
NBA: I am in agreement with Pat on this one and that’s a bit scary. Sacramento +8 @ Dallas
NHL: Dallas -115 @ Arizona
Professional Hockey and Basketball
Wagers for the evening. Basketball WTFK, hockey I will try to justify my decisions based on the twenty something minutes I read the Hockey News site today…
Magic +11 -110 @ 19
Kings +7.5 -105 @ 19
All plays @ 15
Winnipeg +131
Do I remember the name of the Jets goalie off the top of my head? No I dont, but I wrote down that he is playing very well recently. Montreal has not led a single game this year after the first period.
Sharks/Panthers Under 5 +118
Sharks are in the middle of a long road trip. Combined with the Panthers having Luongo and the fact that they seem scoring challenged…
Lightning/Blackhawks Over 5.5 +102
Both teams seem to be firing offensively recently.
Stars/Coyotes Under 5.5 -119
My lone note here was Arizona – hot goalie. Jpeg or recent form?
Ottawa +140
Most of the public money is on the Canucks for this one, and I bet a solid amount of people who did that had the thought that this was a pretty even match-up but Vancouver is at home so f@#% it. Let’s go the other way.
Monday
An okay Sunday for us, winning on the Jets but losing on the Raiders, with the moneyline play pushing the season into positive territory. Toronto was a late decision and was a winner as well, and we even passed on the Bears Sunday night in another good decision. NFL is now 8-9 +0.85 and NHL is a similarly mediocre 10-11 +1.8.
Not much happening tonight with only two hockey games and Panthers-Eagles in NFL. Hopefully a few more plays tomorrow.
NFL Week 10
This was a tough week to pick; not a lot of big plays here, just enough to hit my bonus on the site I bet on (as well as the fact that I have a gambling problem).
Pittsburgh -6 (EVEN) at NYJ
I can’t stop betting against Mike Vick
Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) vs DAL
Let’s start our QB who has a back problem after an 8 hour INTL flight. I can see Dallas losing this game lol
Baltimore -10 (EVEN) vs TEN
Mettenberger gets thrown to the wolves today
MIA at DET Under 44
2 really good defenses and 2 really average offenses = a game that probably could help one take a nap
TEASERS:
BAL -10, GB -7, ARI -7, PIT -6
SEA -10, OAK +13*
*also agree with Lou on Oakland and might take them once 4:00pm rolls around. They are playing hard every week.
Sunday
An 0-2 hockey day for us as both the Rangers and Avs were one goal losers, Colorado being done in by an unnecessary Nathan MacKinnon boarding major. Tulane won their game against Houston as a 17 point underdog so good for them.
Today is a day to attempt to open a Bovada account to get action down on Jets +6. It’s a 2.5 point swing down to the sharper Pinnacle line and the public is predictably all over Pittsburgh. Please do not bet on the Steelers in any capacity today. My plays:
Jets to win outright +164
Hopefully some Jets +6 -115
Oakland +11.5
Oakland to win outright +500
One other possible game is Chicago tonight. Nothing in NBA or NHL today.
UPDATE: I lied Toronto +115
Saturday Night Leans
NCAA:
Kansas St vs TCU Over 59
UFC:
Wagner Silva +400
Boxing:
Hopkins vs Kovalev Going the Distance +250
NBA:
BOS at CHI Over 194
Saturday
Indiana covered relatively easily yesterday but the Devils did not. Already down 3-1 this happened:
Updates on all kinds of things throughout the day but nothing here early.
UPDATE: Really slow day so far. One play coming up Tulane +17 -115. Hockey in a few hours.
UPDATE 2: Tulane will likely win outright with 5 minutes remaining. Backup goalie Saturday in NHL and I am continuing to fade the Flyers. This may end horribly:
Rangers +105 @ Toronto
Colorado +120 @ Philadelphia
Celtic Overs
I am in agreement with Bill Simmons that the C’s run-and-gun tempo attempt is very entertaining to watch (although they aren’t winning games, so frustrating as a fan). They only missed the over in Houston because they were 1-for-20 from three point land, but have hit 75% of the overs in their games so far. Going to experiment tonight with the Over vs Indiana at 191.
MMA Bonus:
Rockhold v Bisping Goes the distance +155
Friday
Early post as I’m traveling later today. 1-1 yesterday as Florida lost and Vancouver won. To Sean’s point yesterday, I did know Florida has been excellent defensively in 5-on-5 play, but unfortunately they are last in the league in goals with 16 in 11 games. Their coach summarized for us:
We just weren’t sharp enough, we weren’t hungry enough and we didn’t battle enough.
There’s a joke about talent in there somewhere. Winnipeg lost in a shootout to Pittsburgh 4-3 and in the late game, Vancouver held on to win by about a second (Skip to 4:30 if the video doesn’t start there)
Options tonight are limited. Devils on a back-to-back are in Detroit and Indiana is an option for sadists at Boston in NBA.
UPDATE: Devils +155 and Pacers +5.5
TNF Thoughts
I’ve been betting TNF pretty heavily this year; smashing both the over and the favorites (esp at home) fairly hard. I’ve been rewarded with a great ROI as a result (sans the NE-Jets lean; this game is a “rivalry” game along with Saints/Falcons and Washington/Cowboys; the record don’t matter when these teams meet, especially in Foxboro where the Jets play hard).
I don’t have any lean on the teams themselves tonight; both are pretty craptastic (do you know this is the first time both Cincy and Cleveland have faced each other and both teams were over .500 since 1987?). But what I *love* tnoight is the under (46 at -110). A few thoughts:
I bet the season under on the Browns (5.5) hoping that Mike Pettine would help bring this team down along with the Johnny Football QB turmoil. Hoyer has looked OK and the Browns schedule so far has to be the worst in the league. What I didn’t expect, and Lou mentioned this before the year: the Browns defense is pretty good. It might even be top-5 good. They have the 2nd best CB in the game this year in the super duper Joe Haden (#1 is Pat Peterson of the Cardinals; a big reason they are 7-1 right now), a decent front 7 that still has produced despite losing one of the best LBs inthe game in D’Qwell Jackson to the Colts, and Pettine has shown to be an outstanding defensive head coach (as his absence from his last employer, the Jets, has reared its head; they have sucked in the secondary this year. It doesn’t help their #2 CB is a converted safety).
The Browns offense on the other hand? Awful. Just awful. They have an average professional QB, they change RBs every week, their #1 WR is Miles Austin thanks to Josh Gordon smoking the reef, and they are missing both their #1 TE (Cameron) and one of the best Centers in the game, Alex Mack. Pettine’s coaching decisions are also pretty wary on this side of the ball, as evidenced here.:
The Bengals, on the other hand, play down to their competition each and every single week. They have nagging injuries to their #1 RB (Bernard) and #1 WR (Green). Green is playing tonight, but he’s basically just been a decoy over the last few weeks for guys like Mohammed Sanu. Cincy’s defense *is* a top 10 defense: but only when healthy. Vontaze Burfict is one of the best 3 down LBs in the game; he’s also one of its dirtiest, which leans tackling with the crown of your helmet. He’s had several concussions this year. The Bengals are also quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who the crowd was ready to turn on last week when he almost gave the game away to Jacksonville AT home (if only thanks to a Jeremy Hill 155 yard running day).
The weather will also have a 50% chance of rain, 43 degrees, and winds at 10-15 mph. 75% of the money is on the over (at -105). The loser of this game, especially Cleveland, is out of the playoff hunt. Therefore it will be played with that grind it out intensity. It will also be craptastic and low scoring because I can’t think of any other way these two teams play. I also like the over in punts, whatever that is.
NHL BONUS:
Tonight's #Browns #Bengals game is receiving more bets (54,052) than all 10 NHL games combined (43,899).
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) November 7, 2014
Florida +135 (agreed with Lou here! Do you know they lead the NHL in least allowed 5-on-5 goals?)
Winnipeg +155 (2-1 betting on the other Jets this year. They face Pittsburgh tonight, a tough task, but who gets up for a game in WINNIPEG?)
