Month: November 2014
Tuesday
Another loser in hockey last night has our losing streak at 3. Still in positive territory for the season along with NFL with NBA the only negative for now. Several hockey options this evening which look ugly so we’ll see how it turns out. I am going to wait a bit closer to gametime on all of them before posting.
Game 1: Edmonton +161 @ Dallas
Game 2: Colorado +110 @ Phoenix It would be fitting if Phoenix wins tonight after we backed them in their past few losses
Game 3: Calgary +155 @ Anaheim I hate this and I’m playing it anyway
MNH?
We should have two competitive but shitty football games tonight as Sean previewed below. I don’t think either are bettable in the slightest, but reasonable minds may differ. 1-0 for a near push for anyone following me yesterday as Minnesota hung around all game to cover but not win against Green Bay.
Instead of watching mediocre football tonight, please consider Penguins @ Bruins or Flyers @ Islanders. I can also recommend a punt of the inferior Senators +135 @ Detroit. Betting on Ottawa is equivalent to betting on the Rams, ultimately profitable but generally depressing to watch.
The rest of the week looks light with Thanksgiving but I should be able to keep up to date here.
MNF Special
Thanks to inclement weather, we get to see TWO football games tonight. One good, and the other involving the Bills and Jets. They are playing in Detroit, but won’t be coached by Detroit, so the under (which I like at 42, 70% of the money is on the Over) might NOT be in play. Take what Jim “I went to the Romeo Crennel School of Football Game Theory” Caldwell’s decision yesterday:
You definitely want to keep settling for field goals on the road against a team that averages 40 points a game.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) November 23, 2014
So I like Bills v Jets Under 42 (in Detroit), the over in the Baltimore/New Orleans game (51) and putting both in a parlay and a teaser. I’m also going to take Bills -3 (+110), because I hate myself.
We’ll have some Turkey (betting) Tips for later in the week, including a probable return of the Celtics Over train (5-0) this week when they face Chicago.
Sunday
We had a 3-0 day in college football which helped to offset an 0-2 hockey day. The Carolina loss was particularly terrible as they effectively set the game on fire in the 3rd. NFL this week originally looked like there were going to be a lot of plays, but many of the games have now dropped off with the usual Sunday morning line moves. Detroit and Miami are the two primary sides here so I guess they are leans and not plays at this point.
One confirmed play today and that’s Green Bay @ Minnesota +8. This line is likely 7.5 at this point and peaked as high as 9.5 or 10 earlier in the week. I should have been more vigilant and taken it then but the +8 is good enough and I’m taking the moneyline at +305 as well. Hoping for 3 upsets in a row following the Jets and Rams he past two weeks.
The couple of other games I’ll peek at before 1:00 are Atlanta and Houston, but I’m not expecting anything to come about. Nothing in hockey or any other sport today. Good luck
NFL Week 12
SF -9 (-120) vs WAS
Washington is probably as of now the worst team in the league, and one of the worst run orgs in sports. Jay Gruden, the head coach, ripped RGIII on Monday, saying that the QB should worry about just himself (which is correct; RGIII is acting like an entitled douche). Then, the next day, took it back and apologized to RGIII in a press conference (way to win a locker room! DeSean Jackson is thrilled!). Then ownership, who its rumored made him do that, comes out today to say that Gruden is independent and can do what he wants (including benching the QB; I hope he doesn’t. They actually played well when he was under center). SF is a hot mess too, but at least they are talented. As a side note, I took both of these teams’ season unders (SF 10.5, WAS 7.5) so if this game ends in a tie (40-to-1 for those interested), it’s a double win!
TB +6 (-110) at CHI
The Lovie Smith Bowl. Again, this line is way too high, should be CHI +3 to +4.5. FWIW, the line has now moved to +5 (-120) and may end up in the Vegas zone at some point.
ARI at SEA Under 42
It was 41. I think someone wins this game 17-10. Big test to see if Cardinals are for real today.
TEASER (+260):
NE -7.5 (I never knew that Jim Caldwell actually ran the ball on 3rd and 9 from the 31 with 0:24 seconds and NO TIMEOUTS in that crazy Lions/Atlanta game. He said, “it’s not that much of a risk”. WTF! Did he go to the Romeo Crennel school of head coaching? I’ve never played Madden that bad after finishing a bottle of tequila!).
GB -9
SF -9
PHI -11
Thanks to Oakland on Thursday, I was almost as excited as these guys:
https://twitter.com/FBallblogger/status/535843674513735680
Saturday
Islanders and Bruins were both winners in a shootout last night. Two plays to add to Stanford so far today:
Maryland +6 @ Michigan
NHL St. Louis @ Ottawa +130
There should be an update around 6
UPDATE: Carolina +130 @ Colorado
Florida Atlantic +7 @ Middle Tennessee St
Friday
Arizona/Phoenix was a loser in Dallas yesterday 3-1. Just like at times last season, the Coyotes would play a solid 1st two period and then fail to turn up for the 3rd, just like a pub soccer team would if you told them there were three halves. I did take the opportunity to tweak some of my systems over the past 24 hours so hopefully some better results await. Two games of note this evening. First we have a play on the co-official team of Miracle Covers this season, Islanders +150 @ Pittsburgh. We are also close on Boston -125 @ Columbus but it’s ultimately going to be a pass.
Also an early amateur tackle football play for tomorrow, Stanford -5.5 @ Cal. The line is currently 6 at most places.
Thursday
How the f— is it Thursday already? 1-1 in hockey yesterday for a breakeven or small loss depending on how you weighted the plays. Vancouver struggled behind some shaky defense and goaltending in a game they should have won easily, and Philly lost getting yelled at by their GM after the game. “That’s [bleeping] embarrassing! Jesus [bleeping] Christ!” said Ron Hextall. Interestingly, we are 6-0 betting favorites this season which is a meaningless tout-like stat I can get behind.
Also, another winner in NBA last night after an atrocious start as the Clippers won easily in Orlando.
Not much on the agenda for this evening. Full slate of hockey but not much that is appealing. The best game is Phoenix +135 or +140 at Dallas. Dallas is actually this year’s version of the Islanders playing very little defense with not enough goaltending and occasionally some offense to go with it. Problematically they’ve lost eight in a row at home and longtime followers know we like to bet against winning teams and on losing ones whenever possible. Phoenix is an underwhelming team whose goalie has been outplayed by his backup to date. 830 start so I will think on it and then update if there is a play.
UPDATE: Fcck it Arizona +140 @ Dallas
Also, we have a lean on a total, Carolina @ Los Angeles UNDER 5
Wednesday
Two hockey games both nationally televised tonight and we are taking action on both of the away teams. Philadelphia +140 visits the Rangers in a bit and Vancouver -130 is at Edmonton in the late game. Both lines may move so I am getting action in now. NBA because I’m an idiot is Clippers -5 @ Orlando.
Penguins were an easy 4-0 winner yesterday but Umass lost handily. I’m going to try and do college football the rest of the year and likely again next season. Totals will probably be rare.
