Month: October 2014

Thursday Night Degeneracy

Posted in Hockey, NFL - 2014/10/09 - 0 Comment

Continuing with the “favorite on TNF” theme, taking Colts -3 (settled at -3.5, started at -2.5) +105.   Luck is 12-2 in career vs division opponents.

Also taking first NHL play of the year with Winnipeg +120 vs the Arizona Coyotes (wha?).  The only time you’ll hear me say: Let’s go Jets!

Thursday (More Hockey)

Posted in Hockey - 2014/10/09 - 0 Comment

Still no other sports! I think everyone else in the NHL plays tonight with a handful of teams on back-to-backs.  Good Game Flyers last night who lost 2-1 but were a minute away from forcing overtime.  For anyone new here, we’re trying to identify coinflip games at plus odds (or better) as a hockey strategy. 0-1 -1.00 for the season.

I am going to try and capture leans this season just for reference.  We have one of those tonight, Winnipeg +125 @ Phoenix.  One actual play and that’s Florida +170 @ Tampa

EDIT: I forgot there is an NFL game tonight.  Also one other leaner, Dallas +104

Opening Night (Hockey)

Posted in Hockey - 2014/10/08 - 0 Comment


There are some advantages of being he least popular major sport.  People treat you like the cute youngest sibling and generally ignore you and leave you to your own devices right up until a major event that causes some people to temporarily take notice before letting you retreat back into relative anonymity.  For degens, this means the lines don’t move very much unlike some larger sports (NFL, cough).  With no baseball tonight, American sports fans will be forced to watch hockey to find a sport who’s games count this evening.  We’ll start with the win totals:
 

Colorado UNDER 45 -138
Montreal UNDER 44 -114
Islanders OVER 38 -125
Tampa OVER 43.5 -132 

 

None of these are terribly original, but fortunately “Public” hockey bettors consist of me, several million Canadians, and all men named ‘Serge’ so it’s marginally irrelevant if any of them like these plays too.  I’m betting on regression for Colorado and Montreal and I like teams with competent to very good goalies replacing mediocre or shitty ones, especially when paired with improved defensemen.  I really like Tampa Bay and also have the following action on them:

 

Lightning to win:
Atlantic Division +393
Eastern Conference +725
Stanley Cup +1425

 

Finally one play for tonight: Flyers +160 @ Bruins

Playoff Baseball

Posted in Baseball - 2014/10/07 - 0 Comment

I was all ready to writeup the record & recap for the season, and then a play appeared:

Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Cardinals (Miller) +143

I didn’t get it posted so it doesn’t really count, but I am the owner of some Orioles to win the World Series shares at +725

MNF

Posted in NFL - 2014/10/06 - 0 Comment

Taking the Washington team +7.5 tonight vs Seattle.  This is partly a hedge with my under bet with them.

Also hedging against VT in fantasy football as I am up vs his last player, Steven Hauschka, Seattle’s kicker.  The Over for 2 Seattle FGs is -110

NFL Week 5

Posted in NFL - 2014/10/05 - 0 Comment

BAL +3.5

DEN -7.5

CHI v CAR UNDER 46.5

NO v TB OVER 48

Also, Philly’s line is down to 4.5 at some books.  I’d take at -4.5 but not at -6.

Teasers:

PHI -6

SF -6

DEN -7.5

and

PIT -7

CHI v CAR UNDER 46.5

NO v TB OVER 48

And a ML parlay for fun:

Orr NHL93

And here are your most bet on games of the day:

 

NFL Sunday

Posted in NFL - 2014/10/05 - 0 Comment

A lost week for me, I’ll get current season totals up in a bit.  No NFL plays for me today, though I’m close on several, Tennessee, Carolina and Arizona the primary ones, but I will probably pass altogether.

Saturday

Posted in NCAA Football, UFC - 2014/10/04 - 0 Comment

Fun stuff today.  Taking a 5 fighter parlay on all of the Swedish fighters on today’s Stockholm card at +875.

Orr NHL93

 

 

I also like the under in the Nebraska v MSU under at 60.5 (now at 55!) as it will be raining (which is usually trouble for running teams as lineman can’t setup their blocks.  Both defenses are pretty good, too).

 

Thursday Night Degeneracy

Posted in Baseball, NFL - 2014/10/02 - 0 Comment

Ponder is starting tonight for the Vikes, so therefore I *must* take Green Bay -10 (-105) at home.  I am also putting them in a teaser with the under at 47 (also a hedge with Matt Asiata, who I have in 2 fantasy leagues).

We’ll continue the MLB binge with taking the Angels at -1.5 at +115 at home versus the Royals and putting them and Green Bay in a parlay at +410. 

Huge split for the Angels spread bet but I think betting against Ned Yost could be a profitable strategy for us:

 

 

Wild Card Wednesday

Posted in Baseball - 2014/10/01 - 0 Comment

I like the under (6.5 -105) in tonight’s Pittsburgh vs Giants NL Wild Card game.  Madison Bumgardner always seems to come through for the Giants in these games, who are a pitching team.  Stats on the action below: