Month: January 2014
Thursday
1-0 yesterday as Georgia not only covered but won outright in overtime. Rangers were also a winner in NHL for those playing leans. One notable pass tonight and that’s Minnesota @ Phoenix. My single NHL play tonight is on Detroit +160 @ San Jose. I am 2-7 on plays the last month after a ridiculous start so be forewarned.
In the NBA tonight, I have Miami -8 @ New York. NCAA: Depaul +9 @ Butler and FIU +1.5 @ Rice
UPDATE: I realized after placing the bet that Detroit is in the East now. I will now stare at hockey divisions before I go to sleep the next few nights.
Heres to 2014
Time to get back on the horse. I didn’t touch Wild Card weekend, those games screamed “Who the hell knows” at me. But the water is calling me, let’s jump in.
Capitals @ Lightning over 5.5 -106 @ 12
YTD : $0.00
Wednesday
Pair of losers yesterday in NCAA. GA Tech managed to lose the second half by 20+ points after being down one at half and Vanderbilt miracle covered in a loss. Will try and do better today. Today’s leans posted across all sports with plays to follow in bold:
NCAAB: Richmond +2, Georgia +11.5
NBA: Golden State -6
NHL: Rangers +170
Decisions on plays in an hour or so.
UPDATE: Rangers are playing a Western team, so they are out. I can’t keep the conferences straight for hockey, much less the divisions. UGA is the only play for me tonight.
Tuesday
Minnesota was an easy NBA winner last night and Calgary also won for those being aggressive and taking ‘leans’ as well as plays. Nothing in NHL tonight despite a full slate, but New Orleans in the NBA will be a GTD. I’m leaving the NCAA Totals experiment aside for the rest of the season as there are just too many games & conferences to keep track of. Even getting NCAA sides done is time consuming, at least until I start getting my bet sizes up a bit larger and can afford to pay for the automation. That said, two college game tonight:
Georgia Tech +15.5 @ Duke
Vanderbilt @ Alabama -7
Monday
Back to normal service starting today. A quick note on the Chiefs-Colts game as it was example #5,290 why not to follow big lines moves in football. This is doubly true for the NFL over college. Anything over a point is significant and should generally be avoided. The only sticking point on the KC line was that it did not hit ‘3’ on either side, but a 4.5 point move is ridiculous regardless. Either take the other team or pass on the game entirely.
Nothing doing on the college game tonight so I will roll my perfect bowl season into next year even though I took off the better part of the games. In NBA, Minnesota -7 @ Philadelphia. NHL has a light schedule today. I was considering Calgary in the late game but they are playing too terribly for me over the past few weeks.
More tomorrow…
NFL Playoff Betting Notes
Three interesting nuggets here from the good folks at BetLabs:
Since 2003, the biggest spread change from open to close on an NFL Playoff game was 5-pts. Once +2.5 dogs to open, #Chiefs now -2.5 at Indy.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) January 4, 2014
And we’ll be taking Indy at that +2.5 now! Any good reason to bet against Alex Smith and Andy Reid is a gambling opportunity that one must take! I also like the “FG/Safety is the first score” prop at +135.
#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 25-10 ATS against divisional oponents and 17-19 ATS against all other NFC opponents.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) January 3, 2014
Good news for our SF (-3, +105…its now back at EVEN) bet……it also helps that Rodgers plays against Jay Cutler, who is Jeff George 2.0:
In terms of units won (-25.46 units), Jay Cutler has been the worst QB for bettors since the start of the 2003 season.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) January 2, 2014
40-63 career ATS record RT @SportsInsights: According to @BradBiggs, the Chicago #Bears have signed QB Jay Cutler to a 7-year contract.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) January 2, 2014
Friday
Likely passing on any college football today. Oklahoma was an easy cover yesterday and I am up to 5-0 this bowl season. Getting back on the hockey bandwagon today with NY Rangers +140
Useless Info
Iowa was a winner yesterday. Not getting a post up before the game but I have Oklahoma plus 17 tonight. No hockey games tonight unfortunately. Normal service to resume Monday
Sugar Bowl and Recon
I like Oklahoma’s toughness and they showed some meddle winning in the last seconds at Oklahoma St to win the Big8-12-whateveritis. Alabama is also coming off that doozer of a loss to Auburn, so I expect a high scoring, fun, competitive game in New Orleans. Plus, since this game basically means nothing, the players were probably drinking in New Orleans the night before. I like OU at +17 and putting them in a teaser with the Over (53).
Early NFL Playoff recon:
SF -3 was EVEN on Monday…..it’s now at +105 and I’ll now have to “jump in it”. More excited about this now since the weather might be at -10 on Saturday night, and that favors the better running team, which are the 49ers. The under at 47 looks toasty, too. I just don’t think the Packers have figured out the run defense to stop the zone-read attack of Kaepernick. One also must wonder, despite his heroic performance in Chicago last Sunday (and covered the -3!), how Rodgers’ shoulder will hold up in the cold vs a physical defense.
Also will tease NO+3 with the Under at 60. Passing spread teams in winter weather, rookie QB in playoff football, and the fact NO is always a tough “out”. Foles might be gearing up for a Super Bowl run, though*
*I just wanted to type that up for the laugh :)
Happy New Year
Iowa +7.5
