Month: January 2014
Plays 1/24
I say plays but I only have one at the moment, possibly more as the evening progresses.
Capitals/Devils Under 5 -106 @ 13
The Devils (for the most part) do not score or yield a ton of goals. Ovechkin is the only Capital at the moment worth a damn offensively. In other news, I am happy to report that the 6 goal over/under line is an actual thing, there were two the other night. This corresponds with what seems like a slight uptick in goals recently. I am a bit behind but I have been tracking lines for the last month or so and there has been a heavy barrage in what I will call BTOs or Big Time Overs. Those are overs that crush the line. On the days of 1/18, 1/19, and 1/21 ( I was hungover as balls on 1/20) there were 11 BTOs by my standards* and only 2 BTUs (ha! BTUs). One wonders if it has anything to do with this quote…
” The league is screaming for goals and all of a sudden, I don’t know how you can kick it and try to stop at the same time,” Sabres interim head coach Ted Nolan said.
That quote happened after a game where someone had a goal disallowed for kicking it into the net. The only thing we are concerned with is that it seems the NHL, like it has often in the past, is making a concerted effort to increase scoring. Something to think of moving forward maybe.
* Big Time Whatevers are when the final score differs from the line by 1.5 goals or more. As when the line is 5.5 and the final score ends up being either 4-3 (BTO) or 3-0 (BTU).
YTD : -57.79
***UPDATE***
I am not going to touch it but the Thunder/Celts game has moved 3 points in roughly .3 seconds since Durant has been ruled out. This should honestly be a measure of MVP credibility, how much does the line plummet when you are unexpectedly yanked from a lineup hours before a game. It’d be great if for some players like 2014 JR Smith where the line moves backwards.
NFC Championship
We have Seattle in an 11-to-10 bet to win the NFC (took this right after they beat the Saints on MNF). They have made the championship game, and now we have some great hedging opportunities with their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers (who I think are the most talented team left in this tournament, and have been my main bankroll builder in Dec/Jan).
My prediction? SF 20, Seattle 17.
Bets include:
Super Bowl futures:
SF vs DEN +250
SF vs NE +600
Teaser:
SF (+3) and NE (+4)
SF (+3) and Under (40)
Lines:
SF ML +150
FYI……As a warning Sunday for those who wish to take the Broncos (-4):
NCAAM Plays
Our pick last night was a dud for our first defeat for the year. I am going to be aggressive with underdogs today. All of these plays are 13.
Indiana St +10 +102 @ Wichita St
New Mexico @ Fresno St +5.5 -101
Vanderbilt +9 -102 @ LSU
Georgia Southern +2.5 -102 @ Appalachian St
Davidson @ NC Greensboro +7.5 -106
Jacksonville St +11.5 -110 @ Eastern Kentucky
UMass @ Elon College +4.5 -106
USC / Colorado Under 140.5
YTD : +21.39
NCAAM Slight Home Underdogs
For anyone reading this, slight home underdogs have been doing very well the last couple of weeks in NCAAM. The two I chose last night went 2-0, which is nothing compared to the 5-0 teams that fit this criteria ran as a group. Why not ride the wave? Of three games on tonight, one matches our description. Play is 14.
Wisc Green Bay @ Wright St +1 -103
YTD : +35.39
Basketball Plays
Our only bet so far of 2014 was a winner the other day. Whats interesting these days with hockey is there exists only two possible over/under numbers. 5 and 5.5. The amount of juice tied to whichever number Vegas takes can vary drastically, but those are the only options I have seen over the last couple weeks. The two major sports most in sync with the scoring totals of hockey that I can think of are soccer and baseball. I have definitely seen baseball’s range go from 6 to upwards of 12, and just this week in soccer the range for Premier League games stretch between 2 and 3.5. Anyway, this has nothing to do with our action tonight. Both bets here are 13.
UL Lafayette @ South Alabama +1 -106
Austin Peay @ SIU Edwardsville +2 -110
Recognize the pattern? Both very slight home underdogs. There were a few others that existed that I easily could have thrown in (Vandy, Minnesota, Montana St) but we will go with just these 2 this evening.
YTD : +11.32
UFC Fight Night 35
From Atlanta…Ric Flair is in the house WHOOOOO
Cole “Magrinho” Miller (from Augusta, GA) wins by inside distance +180, fight goes to decision +160
Yoel “Soldier of God” Romero Palacio wins by inside distance -150 (former Cuban Olympic Wrestler. Guy is simply a beast)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQkoXcNtGcA
T.J. Dillashaw wins inside distance +180 (Duane “Bang” Ludwig fighters. These guys just simply knock people out)
A shout out to Lou with his two NHL picks (BUF +180 at WAS, winning 2-1 in shootout, and TB +117 as well) that paid for my weekend football drinking. We will continue our experiment tonight with a total: WAS at PIT Under 5.5 (+105). The Capitals (22-16-8) have struggled on offense while dropping six of their last eight, including four games in which they managed only one goal. These are also the two top teams in the East playing before the Olympics; it could be a “Playoff Style” game tonight. NHL teams play 5-7 of these a year during their outrageously long (84 gm) regular season (most of the time for my Bruins, it is: PIT, MTL, NYR).
We’ll have NFL stuff later in the week, mostly having half of our bankroll on the 49ers in a hedge with our Seattle winning NFL (11-to-10) bet. BTW our referees:AFC: Tony CorrenteNFC: Gene Steratore.
Sunday
Some more quick notes today. Tampa was a winner for those who followed yesterday 6-3. One play today with a 3pm start is Buffalo +180 @ Washington. NBA has a game to check later and that’s Minnesota who is at San Antonio. Lastly, in the NFL today, Carolina is the side to be on in the early game but I have little interest in fading the 2.5 point line move. Definite pass on SF. I have no opinions on the Denver-SD matchup.
Likely limited service through the beginning of next week.
Saturday
Min post as I am out & about today. NHL Tampa +119
Divisional Degeneracy
And it’s the NFL’s Divisional Round….probably the one I do the worst in over time. I’ve made such “lock” bets in the past in this round as:
– One way to lose money: betting Jake Delhomme, who was at home (Carolina) versus Arizona, coming off of a thrilling win vs Green Bay (who the oublic had 80% of the money on) the weekend before. 70% of the money was on the Panthers. Our boy DaGowin, a Carolina fan, declared before the game: “Now ya’ll can see what it is like to watch a real professional football team play the game right”. Jake Delhomme would go on to throw 4 picks and the Panthers lost 33-13. He would never play for the team again and only had one more start in the NFL (with the Browns…and that kinda doesn’t count).
– Betting on Peyton Manning in games in this round is always shaky (we all know what happened last year). I took the Colts vs the Chargers in 2007 (I was convinced that the Brady-Manning game would happen during the Patriots quest for an undefeated season, ala Magic vs Bird in 1986). Billy Volek, who came in for an injured Phillip Rivers in the 2nd half, played the role of Rob Reed and the 1986 Houston Rockets to upset the Colts. I also gave the points at home vs the Steelers (and some rookie named Ben Rapethelisburger) in 2005 (which means I didn’t learn my lesson).
It was also the game where this happened:
So my history is dicey in this round, but hey……you can’t correct that if you don’t play!
Saints +8 and in a Teaser with Under 45 at Seattle
I think everyone is a little too bullish on Seattle blowing out the Saints in this game. Seattle’s offense is somewhat vanilla, and the Saints defense has improved over the last few weeks, and they (IMO) have the 4th best running game in the league (and if Seattle’s defense has one flaw; they can be run on). The Saints also got their ass kicked the first time they went up there; it’s unlikely to happen again, right? What really killed the Saints were the unforced penalties and TOs; that stuff can be corrected. I think Drew Brees and Sean Payton keep it close in the 1st half, but Marshawn Lynch steals the show and finishes out the game strong, along with some timely Wilson throws. This bet is also part of a hedge I have with Seattle winning the NFC at 11-to-10. It would be funny if we had a reverse situation like we had in 2011 (the 7-9 Seahawks faced the 11-5 Saints. The Saints were an +11 favorite, and lost, mostly thanks to this run)…..bringing about the degen play of the week (brought to you by King Cobra) would be to take the Saints ML at +290.
49ers -3 (+120) at Carolina
I have been riding the 49er train the last few weeks and its helped my bankroll tremendously. First, they are the best team in Madden 25 (2014)…always an important indicator for me. Second, they travel well in any environment versus a variety of teams, because they do what good fundamental teams do well: run the ball and play defense. Third, this will be Cam Newton’s first playoff game. There might be a good chance he shits his pants. Kaepernick isn’t the most accurate and a bit wild……but he is a clutch player with big play ability. The under is at 41 here; considering these two defenses and the injury to Steve Smith I can see that…..but these teams’ defense also create turnovers as well (and good field position), so I’ll probably stay away there.
Plus how can you not be inspired by this guy:
NE vs Colts Under 51
Way too high considering there will be rain and 20-25 mph winds on Saturday night. Add the fact the Pats will run to possess the ball (especially if they take an early lead), they can and will burn clock. If the Colts keep it close, the will have to play defense and keep Brady and Co. out of the endzone. This game could go 30-13 or 27-20.
We end on this nugget:
With 10+ days of rest, Peyton Manning & Tom Brady are 21-11 ATS during the regular season, but 5-11 ATS in the postseason.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) January 6, 2014
Friday
Again, apologies for the Detroit play last night as they got smushed 4-1. College hoops were both winners but Miami lost outright in New York, so a mixed day all around. Not much looks good today. Toronto is the only “lean” tonight, but they are on a back-to-back. One play in college hoops and that’s Wright St. +4.5.
A quick note on the NFL playoffs…There are a total of 11 playoff games each season or roughly 1-2 fewer than an average regular season week with a few teams on bye. Please don’t be overly degen and try and bet on games that you wouldn’t otherwise. Just like poker, it’s OK to fold a winner every once in a while. I will try and get plays in tomorrow morning but I may be asleep. Good luck to all per usual.
