Month: December 2013
Champion
Always, always fun betting on teams you can not name a player for
Bayer Leverkusen ML +114
Bayern Munchen -1.5 -103
Monday Night Football
Two losers yesterday and to make things worse, Cleveland covered easily despite the line move taking out my play of the week. I will now be a degenerate gambler and chase yesterday’s losses with a bet on Monday.
Bears to win outright -125
In all seriousness, this play lines up well and I like it only slightly less than Cleveland earlier in the week. Full unit play for me.
Not much doing in hockey again after an empty weekend. Columbus is tempting at +175 but only because over 90% of the betting public is currently on Pittsburgh. If I decide to break the model and go with them, it will be for a half unit play. Islanders are another option in a west coast game if the line moves a bit more.
Good luck out there.
UPDATE: This Islanders game is really marginal and will probably lose but I’m going to gamble it up and play it anyway. Islanders +175
NFL Plays
All of these bets are @ 17
Browns +10 -113
Bills +2.5 +113
Eagles -2.5 -107
Chiefs/Skins Under 44 -108
Pats/Browns Under 47.5 -106
Raiders/Jets Over 39.5 -102
Colts/Bengals Under 43 -110
AND Note for me and Lou – Raiders Under @ 125
***UPDATE***
Tenn +13 -110
Cards -4 -110
Giants +4 -106
Giants/Chargers O/U 47 -103
I Am Hungover
Two winners yesterday. Yay. The NFL lines have moved to where I don’t want them and so the one game that was worth betting, Cleveland @ New England is down to 10 or even 9,5 in some places from 11 or 11.5 earlier in the week. The Browns are the team to take here but I am passing unless the line goes back to 10.5. Unlikely and sad.
At 4:00, Tennessee and the Giants are options and Carolina is the side to be on in the late game. Bears tomorrow in MNF I hope.
Nothing in hockey today, Winnipeg didn’t get below the public betting % I use as a filter yesterday but won anyway.
Good luck to everyone reading.
UPDATE: Washington/San Diego St. OVER 146.5. Half unit play
UPDATE 2: Carolina +3 for half a unit
More Sunday Bets
First, thanks to Lou for his Winnipeg suggestion yesterday, as we took the ML (+110) at a Stamkos-less TB Lighting team. The Jets won 2-1.
Also, thanks to Ohio State choking away the BCS title game last night, Auburn opens as a 7 point underdog to Florida State for the BCS title game. I kinda like Auburn here at first glance.
Second, I’ve added some more picks for today:
ATL at GB Under 44 (it’s going to snow in Lambeau today, and Rodgers isn’t playing)
Teaser: NE -10 and IND/CIN Under 44
Teaser BAL -7 (+105) and Under 41.5 (it’s snowing in BAL today)
Eclectic Saturday
Yes, I just wanted to use the word eclectic in a post on a gambling board someday and now my dream has come true. Anaheim won the coinflip last night in a completely even game where a draw was a fair result. Marist lost by 10 or 11, failing to cover the 9.5 and are now 0-9 on the season.
Some college hoops this morning. A total I am playing for half a unit is BYU/UMass Over 173.5. And unlike the fake plays I have been posting, I have a real money play on a hoops side and it’s North Carolina -26.5 at home to Greensboro.
Winnipeg is easily the most likely hockey play today as everything else is either excluded or kind of middling. 7:00 start so I will confirm later if it’s a play.
Lastly, I still have nothing in college football. Obviously should have taken Bowling Green yesterday.
Update: Passed on Winnipeg who are currently up 1-0. Our over was a winner
Premier League Week 15
Man U v. Newcastle Under 2.5 and 3 +101 @ 16
I am just not sure where the goals are going to come from. RVP sounds doubtful, Rooney is suspended, Moyes seems naturally conservative, in my mind the best striker on the field will likely be playing for the away team, apparently the best Man U setup player of the moment has a virus…the bad part is that both of these defenses have allowed a decent number of goals this year. See what happens.
***UPDATE***
Good for us on the 1st pick. The next involves Fulham finally starting to get on track. They have a new manager and look to be in sharper form since he’s been around, albeit for a very brief span of time. This bet is being made in recognition of just how hard it seems to be to win away games in the Premier League, even against struggling teams. I am taking Fulham not on the 1X2 soccer style betting that includes draws but on the pk line where a draw is a push. The 1X2 payout is much better, but after all, this is still Fulham we’re talking about. We may need some help.
Fulham pk -114 @ 15
Seattle Superbowl
After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC. They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now. They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos). I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).
The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants. Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams. I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.
The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing. Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.
I also like:
New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46
Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42
Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)
Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind. Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.
UFC:
Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130
Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).
Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:
The NFL's worst team against the spread? Yep, it's the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears at 2-8-2.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 3, 2013
Friday
Light day yesterday and I went 1-0 with San Diego covering, losing by 1 on a last second shot. I debated backing Carolina again in hockey yesterday away to Nashville, but opted against and missed out as they won easily. I do have a hockey play today, and that’s Anaheim +150 @ Chicago. Also a hoops play, Doug’s Marist +9.5.
There should be some NFL action and just as I figured, Washington is showing up on my filters for Sunday. Still not sure what I’ll do there, but a few other games also look OK at the moment. Likely no college football for me this weekend as these neutral site games and indifferent public opinion have me without much to go on. Bowling Green +3 is close for me tonight but I am passing.
Lastly if anyone hasn’t heard, the US got a ghost of World Cups past in their group drawing Germany, Ghana and Portugal, the latter being literally played in the rainforest. Lots of crap teams on the US half of the draw, so there is a decent chance of making the later stages of the tournament for whoever makes it out of this group. Six months until the tournament, so we’ll have plenty of time to get down action this summer.
Thursday
We went 1-2 on college hoops yesterday with BC and Virginia both losing by a lot but having Fordham cover easily. The hockey game we didn’t play was also a winner with Philly beating Detroit 6-3. Nothing doing in a full slate of NHL today unfortunately. One hoops game tonight and it’s San Diego +6. NFL and NCAAF games are both 3 point spreads and neither is worthy of a gamble IMHO. I was close to taking Jacksonville in my picks contest but chickened out at the last moment. I need a Houston win for my Oakland – worst record bet to have any chance of being a push.
One update I neglected to provide Tuesday was a summary for the college football wins totals I placed at the start of the season. They almost to the dollar broke even. Here is the breakdown:
Auburn UNDER 7.5 and Oregon OVER 10.5 were losers due to an excellent and previously underrated head coach and a complete tank job at the end of the season respectively. Alabama OVER 11 was a push. Our two winners were Cincinnati OVER 8.5 and Kansas UNDER 4, both of whom made the cover a bit of a sweat but ultimately did what was expected at the start of the season.
