Month: December 2013
Week 15
Ill go with these @ 19.
Dolphins -2.5 -113
Browns +1 -113
Bucs +4.5 -105
Texans/Colts Under 47 -105
NFL Sunday
Interesting NFL Sunday shaping up with the public over 2/3 on on team or another in 8-9 games today. Week 9 in 2012 had a similar setup and the public won big.
At the end of the third quarter of the early NFL games on Sunday, Las Vegas Hotels Super Book vice president Jay Kornegay knew he needed more money at the front of the sportsbook.
“I’ve been in this business for 26 years, and I have never seen what I saw yesterday,” Kornegay said. “We call for more money a couple times a year, but never like this.”
Before the day started, Kornegay and his team went over the teams that its bettors loved that week: Denver, Green Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, Houston, Chicago and Seattle.
All of them were favorites. All of them won.
Just a brief word of warning before blindly betting against the public in every game. We’ll see if I ignore my own advice or not.
Stanford Under was a close loser yesterday.
NFL Plays:
Minnesota +6 -105 & +6.5 -110 & Minnesota +227 to win outright. Easily the best play of the day.
Smaller plays:
Giants +9
Tampa +4.5
Oakland and Rams are options at 4:00. Good luck today.
UPDATE 1: Arizona/Tennessee OVER 42.5
UPDATE 2: Oakland is up to +6 so I will have a go. 1/2 unit play like the non-Minnesota ones above. Oilers in hockey are possible play later tonight.
UPDATE 3: Passing on Edmonton tonight 3-3 +1.635 on the day.
Sunday Week 15 bets
Cleveland +1 vs CHI (Betting against Jay Culter, coming off an injury, against a Cleveland team at home that is keeping every game close? Yes, please. The only thing I worry about is the damn CLE coaching stuff fucking this up. I’m also betting props against Pat Darts’ fantasy reject Alshon Jeffery under TDs 1 at +110 and under 75.5 yards at -125).
SF -6 at TB (I just think SF is too physical for this team. They are also fighting for a WC spot).
ATL/WAS Over 50 (Washington as a team is a mess right now, and their defense has been so all year. Also will throw this in teaser with ATL -6, going against my “don’t throw the Falcons in a teaser” logic….but the entire WAS situation I think is just that bad)
Teaser: CAR -10 + Under 41.5 + KC -6 at OAK (all at +140)
CAR/NYJ Under 41.5
Marshawn Lynch (SEA at NYG) Hedge Props: Under 79.5 yards (-120) and under 1 TD (+130)
Snowy Saturday
Not much doing besides winter. No plays yesterday. NHL: Carolina would be a play at Phoenix under the old system, but that is a pass now and none of the other hockey games today are worth noting. Nothing doing in NBA because of all the back-to-backs. One total in college on the west coast, UC Davis/Stanford OVER 152. The line on this has already moved to 154 in the time I’ve been writing this post and watching Hull & Stoke not score.
Should be some NFL tomorrow.
Quick Hits
UFC:
An Epiphany
While watching the Islanders vomit all over themselves and concede goals at a rate approaching the warmup goalies the past few nights, I started digging into my hockey system which has been excellent up until the last week or so. The premise for said system was to sort out the games that should in theory be coinflips with plus odds since regular season hockey games have one of the smaller home-field (ice?) advantages of the major sports. Anything approaching a .500 record with all games in plus odds should be well in the money if executed correctly.
Turns out I screwed up by including non-conference games in the sample. This eliminates any exceedingly lengthy road trips in terms of days as teams only head to each coast a few times a year. It also removes the NBA-like problem of having a superior conference face off against a weaker one. The non-conference games for us this season went 0-4 and over the past few seasons are barely breakeven with a well under .500 record. I don’t need that kind of losing & variance for such a small return, and it’s not like these plays are filled with lots of quality teams already.
So no more non-conference games for me and that should help clean things up a bit. Islanders/Ducks, Flyers/Blackhawks and Islanders/Coyotes from the last week would all be excludes going forward. And even with those plays we are still at 4-4 +1.6 for the month.
Rockets also lost both plays last night, though I have been testing most of the week and I’m confident in those setups, especially the moneyline plays.
NHL is definitely out today but I haven’t been doing basketball long enough to tell if there will be anything there or not. Updates later if at all.
Manning Hedge
First of all, I *might* have a gambling problem taking the Islanders +155 tonight @Phoenix. But we trust Lou who is *hot* at NHL #hesonfire
More later in the week on the Bears’ awful decision to start Jay Cutler, and why we will be betting Cleveland everywhere. BTW, the Bears are 1-6 this year ATS when Cutler starts. IMO, the Bears are probably the worst team to bet on of all time historically; they don’t blow people out and they sometimes lay unexpected STINKERS on the road. This was happening before Cutler, but his douchiness exacerbates the problem.
I wish I could parlay the 2 unders and 1 over (INT) below as I have Peyton Manning in *2* fantasy league playoffs tonight. I will be taking all 3 individually however (also teasing SD +10 with the under 57.5):
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8:25p
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Over
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Speed Post
Utah won by a lot last night and the Flyers lost by a near equivalent margin. Ohio St. under was a close winner as they played their bench the entire 2nd half. I should maybe not be so nitty with the lines, but I say that every time I was going to play something and pass because of a line move that wins anyway.
NBA again tonight: Houston +2.5, also Houston +120
Hockey: Islanders +160
Wednesday
We were 30 seconds or so from a perfect Tuesday, but Tampa screwed everything up by allowing Ovechkin to score his 4th of the night and tie the game late in the 3rd period. Tampa led 3-0 12 minutes in so it was quite the collapse to lose in the shootout. Regardless, Colorado was a 3-1 winner and Milwaukee not only covered the 7.5 but won outright.
Two plays tonight:
NBA: Utah +7 @ Sacramento
NHL Flyers +165 @ Blackhawks
I probably should wait to see where Utah’s public # ends up but I won’t be around later to update. Also I was just about to play Ohio St. Bryant Under 140 but the line just moved to 139 :(
Tuesday
A winning week closed with Chicago winning easily and the Islanders getting somewhat embarrassed in Anaheim. If you want to know how to describe a shitty team, the Ducks coach gave a great example in his postgame press conference:
“We weren’t ready for them,” Anaheim coach Bruce Boudreau said. “But it seemed like every time they were outplaying us, we got a goal. We hung around just long enough to get our legs, and once we got to 4-2 on the same shift, I think it took the heart out of them a little bit.”
The 4-2 he speaks of game at the end of the 2nd when New York gave up a shorthanded goal on a 3-on-1 break followed by another guy scoring from his knees all within 30 seconds of going to the break tied 2-2. Forward to much better hockey teams with two plays tonight:
Tampa Bay +130 @ Washington and Phoenix +120 @ Colorado.
I’ve also been busy the past few days and am ready to start real-life using an away team NBA system starting tonight with Milwaukee +7.5.
Also since it’s Tuesday it’s time to update my record:
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 7-8-2 -1.8
NCAA hoops Sides (Real $) 1-0 +1.0
NCAA Hoops Totals are 7-4 +2.65
NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 16-9 +13.17
NFL: 12-9 +4.22
