Miracle Covers

NFL Week 6

2-2 for me for a slight loss on college football yesterday.  I watched zero games again putting me on a total of zero games watched for the season.  3-4 -1.42 on the season.

Nothing doing for me in early NFL plays, though I did see fit to throw out a seven team teaser thanks to some discrepancies between the Bookmaker & Pinnacle lines:

KC -1.5

BAL + 8.5

CLE +8.5

CAR +8.5

HOU -1.5

PIT +7.5

NO +8.5

I’d love to bet on Tennessee today, but the line is down to 12 or worse.  Lots of line moves this week, s hopefully everyone else was able to get on some teams at the price they wanted.  Hopefully I’ll get in a play (New England) on the late games.  I had Washington marked down all week, but it’s in the top 5 of the Hilton contest and so it’s excluded as an option for me.  Hilton top 5 picks are something like 6-18 on the season.

If I only had a time machine….

The line of the week for Week 6 is the Denver Broncos -27 line versus Jacksonville (once -28).  It’s the biggest line on record, and quite possibly one of the funniest things I have ever seen on a Monday morning.  It is the highest since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

Will the Jags cover, even if Henne plays?  Since 2003, dogs of 20+ have gone 4-0 ATS (and those 4 four times the favorites have been the NE Patriots). The Patriots have been a nightmare for sports books in the modern era;  sportsbooks couldn’t stop losing because everyone was on them early in 2007 and 2011 when they were destroying everybody (and covering). Then once they didn’t cover, all the money kept coming in against them (and the Pats either won close, or lost those games).  As one sports bookie put it: “There was nothing we could do.”

Historically, according to The Gold Sheet (sports-betting publication that has been tracking point spreads since the 1950s), the line of minus 28 ties the highest spread of all time, set by the Baltimore Colts over the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966. The Falcons, of course, covered.  In 1976, expansion Tampa (quarterbacked by South Carolina Gamecock’s coach Steve Spurrier) were 26-point dogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers…..and promptly lost 42-0

I’m almost tempted to take the Jags because it *is* so many points; you’d also have to think it’s a motivating factor in that locker room to cover the spread (because I am sure even they know they won’t win).   Either way, I do like the Over at 53 (-110).  Denver’s defense is not that good; I do think the Jags *could* score 17-20 on them (especially when garbage time hits).  Denver will probably break the season’s total points scored and average per game record, and put up at least another 35-41 here.

Seattle -14 (EVEN) v TEN

Ryan “My mom has met Pat Darts” Fitzpatrick on the road against the best home team, and defense, in football?  Yes plz.

Teaser: CIN (-7 vs Buffalo) + SF (-11 vs ARI) + SEA (-14 vs TEN) at +165

Probably also take Cincy on the road at the -7 as well.  I mean, the defense hasn’t allowed a 300 yard passer in 18 straight games…which in this era, is pretty fucking good.  I am not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but I am a huge fan of betting against practice squad QBs (like Thaddus Lewis).

Washington R.G. Threes (+6, -120) vs Dallas

I get to do one of my favorite past times: betting against the Cowboys.  These 2 teams always play close games.

CFL Bonus pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-9.5, EVEN) vs Edmonton

Saskatchewan comes home from a two game road trip at 12-3.  They are considered the best defense in the CFL.  Edmonton’s team nickname is the “Eskimos”.  And we are gambling!

When to Bet your House on an NFL Game

I stayed up to watch a thoroughly enjoyable Chargers game on East Coast Time last night and couldn’t help myself pre-game, dumping a whole lot more units on Oakland +6.  It wasn’t quite a bet the house game, something that happens roughly once a season,  but had I thought about it some more it probably would have qualified.  When I say bet the house, I mean that on occasion, there comes a game or series where it makes sense to bet a disproportional amount on a side.  Usually this becomes extremely obvious in hindsight.  Here is the NFL Criteria:

1) The Public is on the other team

This is Gambling Rule #1 and should be posted at the top of this site.  I’ve had to stop betting soccer because I can no longer find public data for these games anywhere, but it’s readily available for all major American sports.  The Public was 80% on San Diego last night.  and I’d say the cutoff for these games is roughly 75%.

2) The team in question is at home, preferably someplace with a sizable advantage

Betting on home teams is rule #2 of this site.  The statement above normally meant Seattle before they became legitimately good, or midwestern teams in the cold but some dome games count too.  Night games are great, especially when it’s a team that isn’t on TV much because they aren’t very good.  Playoff games count too.  A legitimate night game in Oakland definitely qualifies.

3) The opponent is “Fragile”

I can’t think of a better word here, but we’re talking about the type of teams that tend to self-destruct at critical moments, especially on the road.  Examples: Dallas, San Diego, Jets, Chicago with Sexy Rexy.  Turnover prone QBs paired with mediocre or worse coaches really are the key here.

4) The team in question is getting points

It’s no fun to bet the house, get the game correct and be sweating a miracle cover.  Better to take the points, put some more on the Money Line and enjoy the festivities.

Below is a non-comprehensive list of previous Bet the House games.  I did not in fact bet my house on any of these, nor did I even get significant money down on all of them.  I essentially pushed on the Cardinals game because I had so much on the ML, and the Packers/Chargers affair I had action that was split amongst several people.  Last night I got in a solid couple of plays, but nothing as high as the two Seattle games.  Betting on Seattle was much more fun when they weren’t as good, but at least now we get to go against them on the road.

The point of getting these gathered in one place is to be able to try and identify the pattern listed above a little more clearly the next time it arises.

Chicago Bears 24 (-13) at Arizona Cardinals 23

San Diego Chargers 24 (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers 31

NFL Sunday

I’m just waking up but have plenty of time to get in my one play this week, Chargers @ Oakland +4.5.  A night game for Raiders fans and Philip Rivers on the road and I still get points?  That’s because the Raiders are terrible, but I’ll take them this week anyway.

2-0 in college yesterday so I’m 3-4 on the season there for -1.22.