Month: May 2013
MLB Plays 5/18
We need to start publicizing this site. Louis just called the Atletico upset, I’m up like 250 “Units” over the last couple weeks, Sean is issuing Code Greens. We are printing money for people! All of these plays are @ 24
Rays ML +101 @ O’s
Blue Jays ML +107 @ Yanks
Astros @ Pirates Over 7.5 @ +116
D’Backs @ Marlins ML +139
Dodgers @ Braves Over 8 @ +107
Royals ML +115 @ A’s
Possibly more this evening.
1999
That’s the last time Atletico has beaten Real Madrid in a match. It doesn’t matter the location or the teamsheets, the Rojiblancos have lost or tied every single time since then. Even when Real put out their second string, Atletico still contrive to lose. They are a European version of the Red Sox pre-2005. The indispensible Sid Lowe explains:
Atlético need the pressure to be transferred. Asked what the difference is between Real and Atlético, the Atlético manager Diego Simeone replied: “400 million euros a year on the budget.” He was right of course and, man for man, there is virtually no comparison. Of the sides who are likely to start on Friday perhaps only Radamel Falcao, Thibault Courtois and Miranda would get into the Real side. Yet there is something else that lingers over this tie: the psychology.
Atlético have not beaten Real this millennium. Their last victory was in 1999 – and that year they went down. Since they came back up to the first division, they have not been able to beat Real once. In that time more than 60 clubs have managed it but not Atlético. It is 25 games now and there is a kind of depressing inevitability about it; they have invented countless different ways, each more absurd than the last, to lose.
They call Atlético El Pupas, the jinxed one, and that has become excuse and millstone wrapped in one. It is an odd nickname for a team who have won two Europa Leagues in the last four years and Simeone has given Atlético a toughness that belies the nickname. But Real have so far proven an insurmountable hurdle. It is hard not to feel like there is a mental block that paralyses them. Less than a month ago, Atlético took a three-minute lead against Real only to concede an own goal and lose 2-1.
All of these kinds of streaks end eventually even though no one thinks they will happen in the moment. We are betting it will happen today. All kinds of hedgeworks for this one as is standard for high odds matches. Also it’s a Cup tie, so extra time doesn’t count for our purposes.
ATL Mardid to win +550
ATL Madrid to draw +325
ATL Madrid +1 goal +105
3:30 ET kickoff I believe.
Baseball would have been 1-1 had we found decent lines yesterday. Verlander had a poor outing as Texas cruised and the Rockies led 6-0 after three before Chacin imploded to lose 8-6. Leans on the Twins, Fish and A’s today but none are particularly inspiring. Not sure yet what the schedule will be like for this weekend.
EDIT:
This is so ugly for baseball tonight:
Twins (Worley) +129 at home to Red Sox (Buchholz)
A’s (Parker) +103 at home to Royals (Shields)
More soccer tomorrow.
MLB Plays 5/17
Split on picks yesterday. To steal a Louism, a Verlander start may soon make a game virtually “ungamblable.” More times than not he delivers a quality start, but you are getting prices based on amazing starts. He is still fully capable of shutting any team down but he often labors to get into the 7th inning, and who the fuck knows what’s going to happen in a game when the Tigers’ bullpen gets involved. So the temptation may be to just bet against him, but how do you do that confidently with a guy who up until last night had a sub-2.00 era on a team with a very good lineup?
Reds ML +104 @ Phillies @ 24
Dodgers ML +123 @ Braves @ 24
White Sox ML +106 @ Angels @ 24
Can’t help but notice that I have been heavy on road underdogs recently. It has not treated me poorly yet but clearly I have a bias in my thinking right now. Like the Rockies/Giants under later. Hold off for now, may be back for it.
UPDATE : Took the Giants/Rockies Under 9.5 @ -105 @ 24
Thursday
How the %)*@ is it Thursday already? Two losers on Tuesday and I missed a would have been winner with Arizona yesterday. Insert day game rant here. Nothing today again but this time it’s because Bookmaker blows. Would have played Colorado and maybe Texas tonight if the lines were better, but there’s a 10-15 point difference from the Pinnacle lines.
I did come up with a winner on Tuesday with the live betting function that may turn out to be useful. It’s pointless to post the lines/plays here as they are one available during stoppages in play or between innings depending on the sport, but I’ll start a log of some sort.
Lots of La Liga action starting tomorrow with an all Madrid cup final.
MLB Plays 5/16
Another good day yesterday. At some point this may turn into a pattern…Only 2 plays this evening.
Mariners @ Yankees Under 9 -107 @ 24
Tigers ML +100 @ Rangers @ 24
MLB Plays 5/15
Epic soccer post by Louis yesterday.
Rangers ML -102 @ A’s @ 24
Brewers ML +113 @ Pirates @ 24
Red Sox ML +114 @ Rays @ 24
Mariners ML +111 @ Yankees @ 24
Nationals ML +129 @ Dodgers @ 24
Oh butters. What have I done. Anyone else catch a theme? Why not throw some propane on to the fire?
Away Runs +4.5 -109 @ Home Runs @ 36
I could see Louis or Sean probably betting a sizable amount on the home team side to hedge. To each their own.
Best Announcer Soccer Goals
One of the most ridiculous endings to a soccer game happened over the weekend in the 2nd leg playoff semifinal between Watford and Leicester City. The winner of this tie heads to Wembley for a one game playoff final to advance to the Premier League. Game is tied 2-2 heading to extra time and Leicester is awarded a really, really soft penalty on a semi-dive in the 95th minute. And then this happened:
Yes, the penalty was saved by one Manuel Almunia, last seen on the Arsenal bench a few season ago after an ill-fated stint as the starter. And yes, the storming onto the field is reminiscent of many a college sports event with a last minute winner. Also, the penalty taker was the same guy who dived to earn the PK, so karma and all that. I’ve probably watched this a dozen times the past couple of days and made me think to put together a list of some of the more memorable goal calls of recent years. I left out the Fernando Torres/Gary Neville Orgasm goal both for space and NSFW.
5) Dejan Stankovic/Ray Hudson
The majesterial man who inspired a blog dedicated to his own brilliance. Hudson comments alone could make their own list and Youtube is littered with compilations of his best work, usually around a Messi or Ronaldo goal. I can’t embed this one, but it’s notable both for the commentary and the quality of the goal.
4) Cameron Jerome/Not Bill Raftery
I don’t know the announcer here and the call isn’t particularly memorable (though the goal is likely the best of the season) but it’s impossible for Cameron Jerome to do something like this and not imagine Miracle Covers’ favorite analyst Bill Raftery here.
3) Andrey Arshavin/Martin Tyler
Fun fact: Pat really enjoys shouting ARSHAVIN! at socially awkward moments. I’m pretty sure this was the top highlight of Arshavin’s career at Arsenal.
2)Fabio Grosso/Some Italian Guy
GOLDEGRASSO! GOLDEGRASSO! Italy advanced to the World Cup Final in 2006 because of this goal against host nation Germany. Why as a left back he’s on the right side of the penalty area on a corner kick I do not know.
1) Sergio Aguero/Martin Tyler
I spent this game at a graduation inside a stadium that was not equipped for 30,000 smartphones to be able to stream anything and didn’t find out about this until many hours later. It’s still pretty amazing, though for sheer ridiculousness, I think the Watford goal may have it beat.
Tuesday
There is such a thing as being too nitty with the lines and I hit that on Monday. Both the Rockies (@ Cubs) and Rangers (@ Athletics) have been hitting poorly and sent out sub-optimal lineups on Monday versus two solid starting pitchers. I thought both home teams would win, and they both did easily, but I passed because the lines weren’t quite what I was looking for.
OTOH, I took the Dodgers last night because the numbers lined up, but there wasn’t really anything that was super strong, just a lot of small things pointed to the Dodgers side. It was probably still worth a play, but at least one of the Cubs and A’s should have made the cut as well. This is exactly why I am blogging and testing here as my system clearly needs improvement before upping any dollar amounts into ‘significant’ territory.
Semi-related, I have an open item to update the sidebar with actual useful links to sites I am using instead of sites we used to pull a lot from 3-4 years ago. Should be done soon enough.
Cubs, Yankees, Angels, A’s and Jays are the leans today. Another happy gambling day with no day games to ruin the fun. I think as Toronto and Anaheim get healthy, they are going to make for some profitable plays before the season is out.
Two plays tonight:
Reds (Bailey) @ Fish (Nolasco) +150
Rangers (Holland) @ Athletics (Colon) Even
Monday
We won our play on the Cubs yesterday 2-1 continuing the theory that it’s possible to find games that are essentially 50:50 propositions and get bets down on the plus odds side. 5-5 in May for +0.56 and 14-12 for the season +4.62.
Lots of leans on a busy Monday in MLB. Mets, Chicago, Oakland, the Dodgers and Cleveland in game 2 all potentials at this point. Updates in a few hours per usual.
UPDATE: None of these lines are moving in the correct direction. I should have hopped on Oakland when it was down to -120 because anything higher than that is too much for me. May look at the O/U instead. Other last chance for a play is on the Dodgers and Beckett.
UPDATE2: LA Dodgers (Beckett) +110 at home to the Natinals (Zimmerman)
Sunday
Took yesterday off so no plays to report. The Royals lost to the Yankees in our play on Friday. One play today on the Cubs with Feldman +155 away to Washington. Enjoy your Sunday.
