Month: May 2013
Friday
Not a good day yesterday as Portland had 22 shots and 2/3 possession only to draw with the Revs 0-0. This actually wasn’t a horribly depressing unwatchable 0-0 like most Revs games and New England even got a few good chances at the end as Portland pushed forward in search of a winner. As expected given all of this, the finishing and final ball were poor throughout. I also missed a bet on the Houston-Detroit under because I thought the game started at 10, but the Tiggers got 4 in the top of the 14th for the miracle over, so a bet saved there.
Early leans on the Mets, Colorado, Texas and Houston today. One note on these leans that I’m trying to post in the morning is that Houston and Miami will be getting flagged in the first sweep often because they are a) terrible and b) no one bets on them. This doesn’t mean you or I should. I have 5 plays on these two so far for 2-3 +0.16. Keeping in mind that a +200 line equates to a 33% chance of winning, and that this is almost the default line for Houston, there should be enough plays where we can pick & choose the ‘best’ ones.
EDIT:
Two plays tonight:
SD (Marquis) at home to Arizona (Miley) +104
Colorado (Francis) at home to TB (Moore) +112
I’ll take Houston with Norris tonight if I am around and the line moves in our favor. Spoiler alert: it won’t.
Free Money Alert: Code Green
I don’t like to recommend any of my hometown teams often for a bet….I actually think it is bad luck.
I’ve even done the most cardinal sin, and once bet against them vs Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 while they were up, 3-to-1, going into Orlando for Game 5 (Orlando -4).
Our friend Francis, while at the Everett de Castle lounge drinking beer and kvetching about the series, blurts out:
“Dude, Perkins has one more tech to go (before an auto game suspension…otherwise known as the “Rasheed Wallace Award”). It’s David Stern. The refs will fuck us over. They’ll get one more game in Boston just for the ratings”.
And I was like……
holy shit……….
FREE MONEY*
The Celtics line now at +2 (was at +1.5 at 6pm) at home against the New York Knickerbockers is a very good play tomorrow.
The Knicks, after being up 3-0 in the best of 7, dominating every second half, and nearly coming back from a 20 point deficit in the 4th game……have looked absolutely atrocious 7 out the last 8 quarters. They are a shooting team; so if they don’t shoot well, they don’t win. That’s the usual stock analysis of a “shooting team”.
They are also NOT a passing team, because some players on their team….well they just refuse to do it. This despite having Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton on the team. They’ll have their moments, but at times, I feel like I’m watching Darts playing NBA Jam with just Melo and JR Smith…….and no one else exists on the Knicks offense. Iman Shumpert’s points only happen when the ball somehow finds the way into his hands by the grace of God.
Did you know that Carmelo Anthony had *2* passes in Game 1? No, not assists (he had only 1 of those..here is wife Lala celebrating that here)……but passes. Carmelo seems like the type of guy who probably doesn’t pass the salt at the dinner table, never mind off of a pick and roll (which Felton has abused with Chandler all series…….the Celtics have no answer for Felton. This may be the reason why the Knicks don’t run it all the time).
You’d think passing the ball against an older, slower team like the Celtics would be a strategy to use?
JR Smith went 0-11 in Game 5 before his first FG. Do you know how hard that is to do?
Throw in the the stupid black suit karma factor (do they wear them again here?), the Celtics’ guile despite playing just a 6.5 man rotation in Game 5, down 11-0 to start the game (40+ min for Pierce/KG is a concern), the fact that NBA Marketing executives have about potentially 5-7% of their yearly sales riding on a Boston/NY Game 7 (esp with THIS storyline), and the fact that a Boston team has kind of done this to a New York team before……
……+2 is a great play.
The final kicker? There have been 11 times an NBA team down 3-0, has won the next two games. Every time that a Game 6 was played at the team’s home court……the home team has won. That goes for teams who were ahead OR behind in the series.
Coincidentally, Houston also is hosting a Game 6 (HOU -1), despite being down 3-0, now 3-2, vs an Westbrook-less OKC.
Mathematically, the streak will have to be broken. It can’t go on for infinity, it’s not a Derby**, and it rarely happens…so odds are 1 out of the two teams Friday will break it (although for those keeping with the math, a parlay with Boston and Houston line is +264).
Why not Houston?
OKC has Durant…and the Knicks do not.
*He was right (and also another reason I bet the C’s in game 6 of that series using this logic….the Lakers had clinched the night before to the Finals, and wouldn’t you know it….two quick fouls on Howard in the 1st quarter of Game 6!).
** Kentucky Derby pick this weekend: Itsmyluckyday (12/1)…just because it looks like an online poker name
Thursday
One MLS play tonight. Going with the public if there is such a thing in MLS with Portland tonight -143 at home to the Revs. Barcelona’s loss at home yesterday is basically why there was no bet on Madrid the day before. Absolutely anything can happen in these two leg games when the 2nd leg home team is trailing.
Even more nothing in baseball today and it’s not just me continuing to be nitty with the lines. Tigers/Astros under 9.5 is the closest but we need lineups so this will be a game-time decision.
MLB 5/2
HO! I just went from lukewarm to hot. Over the last few days we have gone from being down 100 Units as of 4/1 to up 100 Units. The only game I like with any measure of confidence at the moment is
O’s ML +106 @ Angels @ 24
I think we like the Over in the Royals game but I am going to hold off until I see a lineup. Update to follow either way.
UPDATE
Rays @ Royals Over 7.5 -102 @ 24
MLB Play 5/1
Kudos to Louis for nailing his expected outcome in the Real Madrid 2nd leg. Still going pretty good at the moment on baseball picks. Several plays I like today after not really liking anything yesterday. See how these go.
Rays @ KC Royals ML +100 @ 24
Padres @ Chi Cubs ML +107 @ 24
Angels @ A’s Under 8.5 -113 @ 18
SF Giants ML +107 @ Arizona @ 24
Chi White Sox ML +104 @ Texas @ 24
Wednesday
Our leans did well last night with Cleveland smushing the Phillies and the Marlins winning in their last at-bat again. Out third lean that I think was unposted was Toronto over Boston. All of these were 10-15 points off of where they would have been a play. Our actual play on Arizona lost but our total covered so we were even on the day. 9-7 +4.06 for April
In soccer, Madrid did in fact win 2-0 yesterday with two late goals, but both sides had lots of chances and it was a miracle under.
Not much to look at today. Cleveland’s line moved 20 points overnight after their 14-2 win. I would take Colorado-LA Over 7 if it were still available, but it’s unlikely to move back down from 7.5. Will update per usual with any plays.
