Wednesday
I’ve been sick this week and missed a play and a post yesterday. I was monitoring the Twins line and they went on to win easily but I fell asleep in a drug-induced state around 6:00 and woke up well after all of the games for the night had started. I’m posting a play early today to prevent this from happening again, though it’s a road team and as seen those have not been doing too well for me. Regardless, it’s Red Sox (Lackey) +108 @ Tigers (Alvarez). Nothing stood out on totals but I will have one more look.
I know very little about basketball and the NBA, but no one seems to give the Spurs a chance to win outright this evening and I do not understand why this is the case. +230 is a good price in my very amateur opinion.
Lastly, there’s a bridge jumper play available today in Confed Cup with Spain versus Tahiti. Pinnacle doesn’t even have a line, but the spread is -8 and Bookmaker is showing -17000. I don’t think there’s any sketchy match fixing that could prevent a Spain win in this one. Tahiti’s coach is talking about allowing “15 or 20” but Spain is playing their reserves so we’ll see what happens.
Doubling down on the away games today while I wait to get the rest of my bankroll back once this Spain-Tahiti game ends. Tampa (Moore) -102 @ Yankees (Pettitte). The Yankees lineup today is absolute garbage. Matt Moore doesn’t have a large platoon split, but the Yankees are starting six lefthanders and the righties are Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix and Vernon Wells. Tampa has one lefty in James Loney in their lineup and he’s batting 9th. Admittedly, it’s not like the Joe Girardi has a better lineup he can send out there, but versus lefties this is at least Mariners/White Sox level bad.
The Heat Is On!
I have had a very profitable NBA season, and I haven’t watched many games. Mostly hunches and assumptions on a) how series dynamics go in the NBA from years of watching it and b) assuming it’s half-rigged……. have helped me win money this postseason. Postseason NBA is so much easier to bet on than regular season NBA!
I liked the Heat at -6 (now -7), the ML at -295 (now -310) and the Heat in a teaser (to -2) and the under at 191.5 (to 195.5)…..until I heard THIS news:
As you can see in the screenshot below, two of tonight’s refs (Ken Mauer and Mike Callahan) have been money for under bettors, while the third (the infamous Joey Crawford) can be qualified as neutral.
Considering *this* news….I now LOVE the Heat tonight. Throw in NBA ratings dynamics, the fact that older teams like the Spurs have trouble in these quick turnaround road games (from years of watching the Celtics, I know…much different when we took the Spurs in Game 1 because they have 5+ days of rest, and are 8-0 in the playoffs when this occurs), and the fact that Joey “The Closer” Crawford is refereeing tonight’s game – book the Heat line, ML, and tease that sucker with the under.
P.S.:
For you baseball bettors looking for value, the Cubs are 69-63 for +15.5 units vs. St Louis since 2005……and 6-3 for +9.6 units as a +195 underdog or greater. As with most rivals; you can throw records out the window.
Tuesday
0-1-1 last night as Pittsburgh was tied late on with Cincinnati but ultimately lost and there was a miracle push in extras out in San Francisco after this amazing catch that would otherwise have been a 4-3 home win:
No MLB plays tonight as the games are very much home favorites across the board. I’m seriously considering dropping away teams from consideration entirely since my record in that group has been so poor (4-11 -5.39). In soccer, the Americans are at home versus Honduras tonight in Salt Lake City, but something feels a bit off about this game despite Honduras missing 4-5 starters. Not worth the -200 or more but feel free to make a small play if you’re feeling frisky. I also hear there is some kind of basketball game tonight, but I’m not familiar with this LeBron James fellow everyone seems to be going on about.
I have Wainwright and a bunch of Phillies and Dodgers in Day 2 of the daily fantasy league experiment. Micro stakes for the time being.
More tomorrow I am sure.
Monday
Still slow posting around here. I looked but could not find anything to play yesterday and was too indisposed to post as such. Our Saturday play on the Twins hit as Anibal Sanchez has shoulder issues and is likely headed to the DL. Two plays tonight, a road team which to date I have been terrible on this season, and a total where I’ve done well so far:
Pirates (Liriano) -101 @ Reds(Leake)
Dusty Baker is being friendly and trotting out another awful lineup today for the Reds. I am tempted to go U8 here as well, but the best I can get is -115 and I’m not thrilled about being on the public side. I don’t honestly know how much the public numbers matter on baseball totals, but I’ll be nitty here and just stay with the Pittsburgh play for now.
The total today is in San Francisco hosting San Diego with Volquez and Zito Under 8. Cold and humid weather expected and lots of regulars out for both teams tonight.
Highly unlikely to have any more plays today. I leave you with a video to prove that making fun of sports from different countries is always entertaining.
MLB Plays 6/15
Went 2-3 yesterday which easily could have been 5-0. The Rockies bet was made based on a lack of faith in K Kendrick which was rewarded, only to have Nicasio and the Rockie bullpen blow-up. The final score in the Angel game was 5-2, but for those of you who you know you are, the final score should have been about 8-4. Gross. Acceptance. Forward! All @ 18 except the last one, mentally insane number of games…
Nationals ML -126 @ Indians
Royals (+1.5) -140 @ Rays
Tigers @ Twins (+1.5) -113
Tigers @ Twins Under 8.5 +102
Giants (+1.5) -128 @ Braves
Phillies @ Rockies Under 10 -108
D’Backs ML -106 @ Padres
Mariners @ A’s Under 6.5 +109
Total Runs Scored Today @ 50 Under 127.5 -105
Slow Saturday
We lost our play on Milwaukee last night 4-3 in extras. Having a look at the total with Cleveland and Washington later as well as one confirmed play today:
Detroit (Sanchez) @ Minnesota (Deduno) +150
Definitely into the grind of the baseball season already and there is still 90-something games to be played. I’m debating getting into the daily money salary cap leagues at some point, though I need to get the databases & spreadsheets in much better condition because I simply don’t have the time to do it properly otherwise. I’ll share more of that process as I go along. Also updated the sidebar with actual useful links, so yay to that.
Updates later if necessary.
Friday
The Milwaukee Brewers rotation has been the worst in the NL with an ERA still over 5 after a recent series with the Marlins. Their pitching staff overall trails only Baltimore and Houston with several other AL teams, who all have the DH excuse, in the neighborhood. I have a suspicion that the pitching is going to come around a bit in the second half of the season and expect the Brewers to be a .500 team the rest of the way. Corey Hart will be back to play first base at some point to prevent the Brewers from taking a zero a first base, Mike Fiers seems to have found his way again down in AAA and there is a chance Rickie Weeks is not Dan Uggla 2.0. Their offense is good and would be excellent if they had something other than automatic outs in the 7 & 8 spots in their lineup, and even average pitching would see them well over .500. Playoffs will be a big ask at this point, but there’s no reason not to take a long look at teams like this that started out poorly and can play well later and stay under the betting radar.
Going with the Brewers tonight away to Cincinnati. Lohse +125 vs. Arroyo. Joey Votto gets the night off and Dusty Baker persists in batting someone terrible in the #2 spot. No Braun or Lucroy for Milwaukee so it’s a wash.
MLB Plays 6/14
Running bad at the moment. Give example, had originally picked Mickelson as my US Open winner in my golf league. With about 35 minutes to spare I switched it to Kuchar, who while not a disaster yet, certainly has room for improvement today. All bets @ 24.
Royals ML +145 @ Rays
Blue Jays @ Rangers Under 10 -113
Phillies @ Rockies ML -116
Phillies @ Rockies (-1.5) +173
Yankees @ Angels Over 8 -106
MLB Plays 6/13
Always seems wrong betting an over in pretty much any sport when the weather is bad. It’s raining outside! How the hell is the offense supposed to do anything?!?! They’ll be lucky to stay on their feet! Let alone score a rouge or catch a snitch. UNDER!
Red Sox @ O’s Over 9.5 -110
Giants @ Pirates (+1.5) -159
MLB Plays 6/12
All plays @ 24. Will add to this almost certainly
Brewers @ Marlins Over 7.5 -104
UPDATE
Indians @ Rangers Over 10 -110
Nationals @ Rockies Under 11 -106
The Astros’ offense is outrageous.
