Over Easy
I think Collinsworth during last nights incredibly long game (only outlasted by the Yankees-Red Sox game that lasted to the 11th) said it best: defenses are going to have a hard time early on, especially when the weather is warm, to keep up with hurry up offenses this season. For Manning, it makes sense: he’s been running it his whole life, has great weapons on the outside, and many teams find it foreign physically to keep up in the rare Mile high air. Add the “Kevin Ogletree Award” winner of 2013 Julius Thomas in the mix, and Denver might average not only 33.5 points at home, but 30 overall (I think its only been done 3 times).
That being said, I am bullish on overs this week, especially in games in nice weather:
Falcons at Saints Over 54 -110 (now at 55 -111, could go to 54.5 -115)
In da Dome, Payton is back, neither team has much of a pass rush, and both teams are loaded on offense. Plus, these two teams hate each other. This could be the game of the day.
New England at Buffalo Over 49-116 (now 51 even)
Brady comes out and tries to match Peyton Manning’s (who I have in 3 fantasy leagues) record day. Plus the Bills are missing Safety Stephon Gilmore (a former Gowin Alumnus of the South Carolina Gamecocks) as well as Jarius Byrd (in trade rumor) being questionable with a foot injury. I’ll also probably tease this.
NY Giants versus Dallas Over 49.5 -105 (this will move wildly before kickoff)
NBC/NFL will ensure that this game also takes 4.5 hours (as well as Garrett throwing on every down).
KC at Jacksonville Over 42.5 -110
Well, why the fuck not! These teams are due to play in a shootout by default at some point, right? And Andy Reid is an offensive genius….you should see this guy work on a rack of ribs!
Miami at Cleveland 41 -110
Just a test, as UConn’s Jim Calhoun would say, “Not a dime” on this game. If you think on betting on anything in this game, you should re-assess your life immediately and probably call up Gambler’s Anonymous at 1-800-IAMAFUCKINGDEGEN
(BTW: Parlay of all of these is $25 to win $610…does anyone have a cell phone?)
Carolina ML +156
I’m intrigued here because we’re at home, with a decent QB (Newton has ALOT to prove this year), nice weather, and the whole “West Coast-to-East Coast” trend (which got broken this year, but I think that is more of an outlier). Does Seattle have the best defense in the NFL? Maybe. But they are missing players due to suspension and they are young so its a defense which will improve over the year. Also since I have Lynch in 2 fantasy leagues, this is a nice hedge. I just am always worried Ron Rivera steps on his dick….although, he’s going up against Pete Carroll, so that could be a wash.
Good luck, all: I look forward to hearing Pat Darts’ rationale when the subject of taking the Raiders (+374 at IND) and Terrelle Pryor on the road, comes up on Sunday.
A New Season
As the 2013 NFL season approaches, it’s a clean slate for everybody. You know, like when a coach calls a timeout before an opposing FG….and the kicker misses the FG.
I have various future action this year:
Cincinnati (+215, now to +200) to win AFC North
I’m counting on a Lewis-less Baltimore decline (also, their slot WR and backup tight end combing age would be eligible for Medicare), a depth deprived Steelers team (with no offensive line), and the poor Browns to contribute to one of the weaker divisions of the year. I believe Cincy, on paper: has the NFLs 2nd best defense (behind Seattle), unique weapons on the outside in Gresham and AJ Green (the second best WR in the NFL) and they are deep in the RB department. Their second half schedule is SUPER weak too. They might start the year 2-3 or 1-4 and finish 11-5.
Chargers Under 7.5 (-125)
Fuck Philip Rivers. That is all.
Here’s also some random UFC action tonight (hint: bet fighters FROM Brazil fighting IN BRAZIL vs fighters who AREN’T); I’ll post my NFL picks later in the week
Pro-Am Football
The easiest money you will win this year on anything is going to be betting the Over on Indiana college football total wins. I asked Lou how much I was possibly allowed to bet on one thing and he said, “don’t you owe me money?” Well played. Indiana is going to smush their Over, please remember you heard this here first on Aug 26th, year of Our Lord 2013. The Vegas number is 5.5, the real number should be 6.25, the actual number will be at least 7. This is a thing that will happen.
The Bet
Indiana Over 5.5
UPDATE
There will definitely be more of these to follow but IU is my big play. The juice on the bet is absurd (-155). Vegas realizes they are going to win at least 6. I would honestly rather have 6 at even money. Lame, se la vi.
UPDATE II
The Indiana action wound up being the only thing I genuinely liked. I would love to bet the Oklahoma under, not really as an indication of the team’s potential weaknesses as a recognition of how difficult their schedule is, but @ 8.5 Vegas is as always a step ahead. As with baseball this year, I will make up for this lack of early action with oodles of regular season plays, starting in earnest Week 2.
Wednesday
No plays today as anything close already happened in the day games. Close loser last night in Miami which obviously pays out negative as the Marlins lost 5-4. More tomorrow…
Back in Action
Slowly after a busy weekend gambling in person.
Dodgers (Capuano) @ Fish (Turner) +118
Friday
Back with a winner yesterday as the Sox made Ben Affleck Day come true again by conspiring to lose a very winnable game 2-1 scoring the one run on 11 hits. 13-8 +5.4 for August to date. One play so far today and it also involves the Sox hosting the Yankees:
Yankees (Pettitte) @ Sox (Doubront) Under 9 -105
Lots of other options today but nothing clear-cut so far. Milwaukee, Philly and Minnesota are tops for sides, Reds and Phillies again for overs at the moment. Nothing on the day games so expect one update with any plays in a few hours.
UPDATE: Dodgers (Greinke) @ Phillies (Lee) -105
NCAA Football Totals
I’m debating betting college football this season and am currently dabbling in building some college football models and backtesting a couple of data sets against my spiffy excel sheet with lots of tabs. Before any of you ask, I’m not actually going to watch any of these games, but I’m guessing line moves and something similar to what I have for baseball will work for college football. That said, my knowledge is approximately zero on any of these teams, so this would be strictly a math and line movement model and thus weaker than what I have for baseball. I say approximately zero knowledge because I did read a bunch of team previews last week and felt inspired enough to make the season bets below. I won a medium sized bet on Stanford a couple of years ago, but they are the only team I’ve watched (other than their opponents) in maybe three years. I’ll be happy if these turn a small profit.
Top Teams, Small Dollars
Alabama Over 11 -110
Oregon Over 10.5 -150
Worse Teams, Medium Dollars
Auburn Under 7 -150
Cincinnati Over 8.5 -135
Kansas Under 4 -130
Thursday
Sloppy gambling yesterday as the Cubs were nowhere near winning but the Yankees won easily in a game we passed on. I took the Cubs under for the picks contest which was a winner and obviously a much better play. Will try and do better today. Two leans on totals, Over 7.5 in Oakland and Under 8 in Detroit. On sides Toronto and San Diego are the only options. Updates per usual if I decide to play any of these.
UPDATE: One play tonight: Boston (Peavy) @ Toronto (Buehrle) +109
Wednesday
Squeaked out a winner yesterday in the 5-hour affair that was Pirates-Cardinals extra innings. First Starling Marte dropped a routine fly ball up 3-2 in the 9th that led to extra innings, then Mike Matheny failing to understand his batting order and what double switches are meant to accomplish, ended up with no batters remaining and Seth Maness batting cleanup behind Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig. In the 11th with runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, Matheny allowed Maness to swing and the Pirates turned a 6-9-3 double play with five infielders playing in to get out of the inning. In the 13th, Matt Carpenter doubled with two outs and the Pirates promptly walked both Beltran and Craig to bring up Maness again who struck out. Despite the mismanagement, the Cardinals scraped together a run in the 14th to win 4-3.
I thought today was going to be rather slow, but there is a play already in the day games:
Reds (Arroyo) @ Cubs (Rusin) +116
I am busy at work today but will update with any plays before the night games at 7.
UPDATE: Cubs lost 5-0. Obviously should have taken the under as I did in the picks contest. Nothing doing tonight, Yankees are closest but I’d need a slightly better price.
Tuesday
1-1 again yesterday, this time for a micro loss. Sox were a relatively easy winner but our over was never close. Andrew Albers for the Twins has opened his MLB career 2-0 with 17.1 innings pitched and a 0.00 ERA. Only six hits allowed in the two games and one walk. You can read about him here. One play for ya’ll today:
Pittsburgh (Morton) @ St. Louis (Wainwright) Under 7.5 -120
