Category: Other Sports

Cymru Am Byth

Wales Pick (+170)

Under 2 (EVEN)

First of all, I am not drunk at 9am in regards to typing the title of this post; that language is Welsh, and it stands for “Long Live Wales”. This guy should get an Emmy for pronouncing this Welsh city name below:

I think today’s Wales v Portugal game will be a rock fight. Portugal hasn’t scored a goal in regular time this whole tourney, and Wales will be missing one of their key offensive players in Aaron Ramsey due to suspension. Portugal has a habit of eventually choking in these things, and I could see Bale scoring and Wales taking home a 1-0 victory (Bale to score and Wales to win is at +400). The draw at +220 is also not a bad play.

UFC 200 leans coming later in the week.

If you need something to fire you up for the week, watch this pep talk given by the coach of the New England Liberty of the LFL league (I didn’t know that NE had a lingerie football team!). He’s pissed his team is getting his ass kicked 70-7 in the 4th.

I need this guy as a life coach:

CFL BONUS:

Redblacks PK -105

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Khan/Alvarez

Fight Goes the Distance +165

Khan has lost twice in his career….both by KO. But he has won his last 5 fights vs decision, and his switch from a new trainer from Freddie Roach was more of an emphasis on his defensive boxing, especially since getting KO’d in a fight he was winning vs Danny Garcia in 2012, which cost him a chance at Floyd Mayweather.

Make no mistake: Saul Alvarez will win this fight. He’s only ever lost to Floyd. He has too much on the line as all he needs to do is coast to a victory to guarantee at shot at Gennady Golvkin. THis matchup is a classic “power vs speed”, as it will be the quicker footwork of Khan, coming up in weight, to face the powerful hooks and body shots of Alvarez.

I think Saul gets into the clinch game with Khan when he can and land more power strikes, but Khan will work around him enough to get to a decision. We took the Cotto/Alvarez over on this site a few months ago, and the one theme in that fight was that Saul pretty much dominated, but got conservative in the final 4 rounds and decided to coast to a victory rather than going for a KO vs Cotto (and open himself up to a counter). AGain, all he (and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) knows is just win the fight, and advance onto a sweet payday vs GGG.

Kentucky Derby Bonus:

Exacta Box (12/13):

1. Nyquist
2. Exaggerated

Longshot:

Majesto 30-1

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UFC 197

PARLAY @ -116:

Jon Jones -600
Mighty Mouse -400
Danny Roberts -400
Gennady Golovkin -10000 (Boxing)

Individual plays:

Danny Roberts -400

Dominique Steele looked like absolute dogshit yesterday at the weigh-ins and he immediately took off all his clothes to try as best as possible to make the 170 weight (he came in at 171 and made weight). It is usually very hard to come back from dehydration like that at welterweight and higher.

Rafael Natal +245

It’s not that I don’t think he’s an underdog to Whittaker, he is…..Whittaker is one of the better prospects in the UFC today. I just think the math on the line is wrong as Natal is a very dangerous opponent with excellent jiu jitsu. This should be at +150 or somewhere around there.

If you are thinking about taking OSP tonight, make sure you take the “inside distance” and “win in the 1st round” props. The only way he has a chance to win is in the 1st round as Jon could have some early ring rust and OSP tends to gas out after the first round as he throws everything with power (he does has several first round KOs for this reason). I think Jones wins in Round 2 or 3 by ground and pound.

NBA BONUS:

TOR @ IND Under 194

NBA Unders are hitting at a 65% clip so far this postseason.

Miami +2.5

Heat are just a bad matchup for Charlotte.

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Cotto vs Canelo Thoughts

Big fight tonight as Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces Puerto Rico’s Miguel Cotto for a unification title fight.

Canelo is coming off of a blistering KO of James Kirkland, and has only lost once (to Floyd Mayweather in a decision). He has power, but is considered more of a technical fighter like his promoter and former champion, Oscar De La Hoya. He is the younger fighter (25), and the favorite at -260.

Cotto is a legend in the sport for putting on some of the most gruesome fights in the sport. He blooded Floyd’s face in a catchweight bout, and is considered to have a great chin. He’s a zombie who just keeps on coming forward. He is 35 and aging and has hinted he is only going to fight a few more times; his next rumored bout would be against the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now, Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. A win tonight for Cotto would make that fight even bigger. Cotto has lost his last two fights via decision, and has changed his corner man to Freddie Roach (who corners Pacquiao). Roach claims Cotto will KO Canelo, but this is also the guy who said Rousey would KO Holly Holm and we all know how that worked out. He is a +200 underdog.

As for my thoughts? I again like the Over Rounds 11.5 tonight at -160. This line started at -200 and has moved down and I believe we are getting great value here. We have one fighter who has a granite chin and another fighter who is more technical than a brawler. Canelo has improved his power, but I don’t think it will be enough to put Cotto down in this fight (although Cotto’s fighting style will certainly give Canelo opportunities to score). The last guy Canelo KO’d, James Kirkland, is a “KO or be KO’d” type of fighter. While Cotto fights wild, he is also smart enough to pace himself AND has a gifted chin (which is why he is loved by boxing fans everywhere; he doesn’t quit).

I expect Canelo to use his youth in terms of cardio to “box and score” around the ring and make Cotto work to get into the brawling style close quarter exchanges he wants. I expect Canelo to win in a competitive split decision. The fight is in Vegas, so the crowd (and judges) will be on Canelo’s side. Canelo to win by decision is at +110 for those interested.

NCAA BONUS:

ND vs BC Under 43

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Friday Night Bets

MLB:

KC +109

This KC/TOR series will be fun. It’s going 7, so I bet the total games at 7 (+180), and KC to win in 7 (+425) and TOR to win in 7 (+420). These two teams also don’t like each other, and quite honestly, I think the winner of this series wins the whole thing (unless the Cubs win and bring upon us the end times).

Leaning on NYM v CHI Over, whatever it is, tomorrow. I think 6.5 was the number I saw.

CFL:

Redblacks -4.5

Here’s a sweet catch from last night:

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CFL Thursday

MTL/HAM UNDER 53.5

Lost a shit ton in Vegas and been in recovery (aka drinking) the last few weeks…..UFC has helped us along the way and hopefully I can use that cash to run it up on poker on Bovada so I can place and hop on Lou’s lean on Dodgers to win the NL (17/4) and World Series (17/2).

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Manny vs Floyd

Wow, it feels like I should or written this article 5 years ago…..oh right, I should have because then this over hyped fight might actually be good. It would of probably only cost $79 instead of the $99 it does now.

Both guys are way past their primes now, but there are caveats to both. Floyd has lost his power punch (insert Pat Darts’ style highly inappropriate DV joke here); the last two fighters he’s KO’d were Victor Ortiz (who? oh yeah, that guy) and Ricky “Fatton” Hatton. He’s still the best technical fighter of the modern era, maybe ever, and can take a punch as well. Add the fact he is part of one of the greatest boxing family dynasties in the Mayweathers (all crazy as him). He is one of the best ever. But 7 out of his last 9 his fights have ended in a decision, including 5 in a row. I know this because I’ve bet every single one of them.

BUT…..Floyd hasn’t really had a rival during his time though, and that has been a scratch against his career. Enter Manny Pacquiao. A more entertaining fighter, a champion of the Philippines, he burst onto the scene KO’ing people left and right in highly entertaining bouts. He was on a tear going into this potential fight in 2007, before it got derailed by ego and money and Floyd being somewhat of a pussy. Floyd wanted him to do a blood test and Manny got offended…..but years of PED allegations have stuck with Manny especially since NSAC testing standards increased right along the decrease in Pacquiao’s punching power.

These guys were the two best fighters in the world in 2007, and decided to choose ego over the sport. The only winner was the UFC, who has grown six-fold since then.

He still out throws every guy he fights at a 2-to-1 pace…..but it just doesn’t “get there” as much as it used to. His undefeated record was gone with a stunning decision loss to Tim Bradley. Then, he got KO’d in a bout recently against Juan Manuel Marquez (who also got caught using PEDs later on; great integrity in this sport!). Manny’s invincibility has been fading, but not his resolve. He has come back strong winning his last few fights, including a 12 round clinic he put on vs Brandon Rios (we took the over rounds; a bet we made here at Miracle Covers!).

Manny is a better athlete, but Floyd has the better chin and footwork. The fighters essentially cancel each other out, which is why I’m recommending the Fight ending in Decision at -310 and over rounds 11.5 at -265 (this is a great line on a site I found; it was like finding gold in your backyard). The decision line actually started at -365….which means money is coming in on the KO/TKO/Under rounds. I don’t understand why because I think this is free money.

The second line the prudent bettor should be taking is the Pacquiao KO line at +1000. At the books this is at +480…but only b/c that action is coming in heavy on Manny; the volume of bets are on Manny’s side (+180), but the big money is on Floyd (-210). Betting Manny to win in a decision is risky because I don’t trust the judges in Vegas as the MGM is where he lost that controversial decision to Tim Bradley. Plus, if he wants to cement his legacy as being better than Floyd: then I think he has to KO Floyd.

If a surprise happens, it will be either a) a Mayweather decision that he didn’t deserve (this is at -110; my other recommendation), or Manny actually knocking him the fuck out and shocking the world.

I am betting that this will be one of the most boring fights ever and it probably will be because if we know one thing about boxing…..someone watching will always leave disappointed.

Kentucky Derby BONUS:

American Pharoah 17/2

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February 5

Orlando was a winner last night in Jacque Vaughn’s last game as coach. They lost by 7. Absolutely nothing at all doing tonight in NHL in one of the more garbage evenings for a full slate of games that I can remember of late. Some other action to keep things rolling over:

College Hoops

Helen of Troy +4.5
Pat’s Fairfield +9.5

I’m also getting some small action down on the rugby six nations tournament which starts soonish. This is to win the round-robin:

Wales +283
Scotland +1862

Hopefully better action tomorrow.

Saturday Night Leans

NCAA:

Kansas St vs TCU Over 59

UFC:

Wagner Silva +400

Boxing:

Hopkins vs Kovalev Going the Distance +250

NBA:

BOS at CHI Over 194

Last Day

Disappointing bubbling the WSOP Millionaire Maker (I finished 50 out of the money, Ace King losing to 98 of diamonds on 36675 board), but sports betting (thank you, Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics) and other degenerate ventures have been very profitable (I bet against the Red Sox just b/c Lackey was on the mound.  Then I took that win and tripled it at the roulette table in 10 minutes), including a nice score at the Aria, winning a $125 tournament of over 287 players:

I also won a seat to the WPT $565 Deepstack Aria Open, which means I’ll be back here in July.  Just in time for football futures (and bankroll leaks).

This is how good the trip has ended: after busting out of the Millionaire Maker on my way through the Bellagio, I find a $100 bill on the ground (which later was put in parlay that hit).  Now THAT is a miracle cover!

Here are my picks today:

Mets EVEN

PHI/WSH over