Category: Other Sports

Manny vs Floyd

Wow, it feels like I should or written this article 5 years ago…..oh right, I should have because then this over hyped fight might actually be good. It would of probably only cost $79 instead of the $99 it does now.

Both guys are way past their primes now, but there are caveats to both. Floyd has lost his power punch (insert Pat Darts’ style highly inappropriate DV joke here); the last two fighters he’s KO’d were Victor Ortiz (who? oh yeah, that guy) and Ricky “Fatton” Hatton. He’s still the best technical fighter of the modern era, maybe ever, and can take a punch as well. Add the fact he is part of one of the greatest boxing family dynasties in the Mayweathers (all crazy as him). He is one of the best ever. But 7 out of his last 9 his fights have ended in a decision, including 5 in a row. I know this because I’ve bet every single one of them.

BUT…..Floyd hasn’t really had a rival during his time though, and that has been a scratch against his career. Enter Manny Pacquiao. A more entertaining fighter, a champion of the Philippines, he burst onto the scene KO’ing people left and right in highly entertaining bouts. He was on a tear going into this potential fight in 2007, before it got derailed by ego and money and Floyd being somewhat of a pussy. Floyd wanted him to do a blood test and Manny got offended…..but years of PED allegations have stuck with Manny especially since NSAC testing standards increased right along the decrease in Pacquiao’s punching power.

These guys were the two best fighters in the world in 2007, and decided to choose ego over the sport. The only winner was the UFC, who has grown six-fold since then.

He still out throws every guy he fights at a 2-to-1 pace…..but it just doesn’t “get there” as much as it used to. His undefeated record was gone with a stunning decision loss to Tim Bradley. Then, he got KO’d in a bout recently against Juan Manuel Marquez (who also got caught using PEDs later on; great integrity in this sport!). Manny’s invincibility has been fading, but not his resolve. He has come back strong winning his last few fights, including a 12 round clinic he put on vs Brandon Rios (we took the over rounds; a bet we made here at Miracle Covers!).

Manny is a better athlete, but Floyd has the better chin and footwork. The fighters essentially cancel each other out, which is why I’m recommending the Fight ending in Decision at -310 and over rounds 11.5 at -265 (this is a great line on a site I found; it was like finding gold in your backyard). The decision line actually started at -365….which means money is coming in on the KO/TKO/Under rounds. I don’t understand why because I think this is free money.

The second line the prudent bettor should be taking is the Pacquiao KO line at +1000. At the books this is at +480…but only b/c that action is coming in heavy on Manny; the volume of bets are on Manny’s side (+180), but the big money is on Floyd (-210). Betting Manny to win in a decision is risky because I don’t trust the judges in Vegas as the MGM is where he lost that controversial decision to Tim Bradley. Plus, if he wants to cement his legacy as being better than Floyd: then I think he has to KO Floyd.

If a surprise happens, it will be either a) a Mayweather decision that he didn’t deserve (this is at -110; my other recommendation), or Manny actually knocking him the fuck out and shocking the world.

I am betting that this will be one of the most boring fights ever and it probably will be because if we know one thing about boxing…..someone watching will always leave disappointed.

Kentucky Derby BONUS:

American Pharoah 17/2

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February 5

Orlando was a winner last night in Jacque Vaughn’s last game as coach. They lost by 7. Absolutely nothing at all doing tonight in NHL in one of the more garbage evenings for a full slate of games that I can remember of late. Some other action to keep things rolling over:

College Hoops

Helen of Troy +4.5
Pat’s Fairfield +9.5

I’m also getting some small action down on the rugby six nations tournament which starts soonish. This is to win the round-robin:

Wales +283
Scotland +1862

Hopefully better action tomorrow.

Saturday Night Leans

NCAA:

Kansas St vs TCU Over 59

UFC:

Wagner Silva +400

Boxing:

Hopkins vs Kovalev Going the Distance +250

NBA:

BOS at CHI Over 194

Last Day

Disappointing bubbling the WSOP Millionaire Maker (I finished 50 out of the money, Ace King losing to 98 of diamonds on 36675 board), but sports betting (thank you, Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics) and other degenerate ventures have been very profitable (I bet against the Red Sox just b/c Lackey was on the mound.  Then I took that win and tripled it at the roulette table in 10 minutes), including a nice score at the Aria, winning a $125 tournament of over 287 players:

I also won a seat to the WPT $565 Deepstack Aria Open, which means I’ll be back here in July.  Just in time for football futures (and bankroll leaks).

This is how good the trip has ended: after busting out of the Millionaire Maker on my way through the Bellagio, I find a $100 bill on the ground (which later was put in parlay that hit).  Now THAT is a miracle cover!

Here are my picks today:

Mets EVEN

PHI/WSH over

 

Wonderful time of year

With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!

Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:

That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey.  Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.

In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS.  A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.

In NFL:

Miami -3 (+105) v BAL

Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road.  Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds.    And we’re gambling….

Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET

Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic).  Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.

PHI v NY Giants Over 53

These defenses stink

San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK

Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling!  Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.

JAX at St Louis (tie)

I wish I could bet this as a tie.  No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.

Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:

https://vine.co/v/hXKBI66eDZz

Soccer and Hockey weekend Drunken Recap

I don’t remember much of the games b/c I was hammered, but these two videos summarize the drunken wild weekend in Soccer and Hockey:

Milan announcer goes nuts

This was our buddy Putland when Yeovil Town won the Playoff for the Npower League One Final, despite their opponent Brentford being a 2.12 to 1 favourite:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyXOQxiFeqg&feature=player_embedded#t=123s

John Tortorella also has a career in commentary if he ever gets canned:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4R3K-oZ4T10

Betting tip of the week:

Stock market guys often brag about getting 8-10% on some of their investments. Imagine if one came along that had the potential to make 33%? They would be as bullish as *I* am on the Miami Heat to win the title now at 1/3.

Big Norm – Real Man of Genius

I’m thinking about taking Over 6.5 on Saskatchewan simply because of the man in Regina and video below:

 

Nick’s Over/Unders

I was going to do a “control” pick – kind of like when they have an animal pick games against the expert, or when Bill Simmons picked NFL games against his wife – because my interest in/knowledge of baseball is at an all-time low, and I didn’t know much about it even back when I cared.  So I thought it might be interesting to compare my know-nothing/random picks to two guys who actually follow MLB.  But then I realized that even staring at a list of team over/unders for 10 minutes and pretending to have any opinion would be way more time and attention than I’m willing to commit to baseball.  So in lieu of that, I present my Canadian Football League over/unders!

All lines were made up by me, because no one has posted any CFL over/unders, and I doubt anyone ever will.  But Bodoga does have 2012 Grey Cup odds currently posted, and the win totals I made up do roughly follow those odds posted at Bodoga, so they should be pretty fair.  And even if they’re not, I don’t know anything about how good or bad any team is, so I’m still shooting blind. I’m assuming that CFL teams play an 18-game regular season schedule (Roger Goodell is SO HARD RIGHT NOW) based on the fact that I looked at Montreal’s schedule this year and counted up 18 regular-season games and 2 exhibitions.  As an added handicap, my confidence points only go up to 8, because there are only 8 teams.  If I still manage to beat either Pat or Lou, he should be very ashamed.

Before I begin, I should point out that my extensive research process turned up an interesting fact: Last year was the first time ever that every CFL team was under the salary cap.  Good to know. Anyway, here goes:

8. Saskatchewan UNDER 6.5

Saskatchewan, besides being hard to type, is the biggest longshot to win the Grey Cup at 9/1. They’re also the most remote team, hailing from some God-forsaken place in the middle of nowhere.  They might not even be in a province for all I know.  We know about the dangers of a West Coast team travelling East in the NFL, but this should be worse: A North Pole team travelling South.  And probably East most of the time, too.  Add in the fact that ever since Ottawa folded, Saskatchewan are the only Roughriders left in the league, and I say they go under.  This is my Lock Of The Week!

7. Montreal OVER 9.5

I like their city, I like their team name (Alouettes), and their jersey is so heinous that it has to distract the other team.  Plus they have a unique homefield advantage in that the visiting team is so worn out from the strip clubs and hookers that they can’t give 100%.  Plus their QB was the subject of a good article on Grantland.  This is my Shoe-in Of The Week!

6. Hamilton OVER 11

They are the 4/1 favorite to win the Grey Cup, and their name is the Tiger-Cats.  Not the Tigers, mind you, the Tiger-Cats.  I’m not sure if this is just Canadians being over-specific, or if they’re talking about some bizarre mad science-style housecat/tiger hybrid.  I guess the idea behind that would be something that looks mostly like a tiger, but is smaller and capable of being domesticated, so that it doesn’t maul you during your magic act?  Anyway, I like the over.

5. BC UNDER 10

Even when it doesn’t stand for Boston College, BC still sucks.

4. Toronto UNDER 8

I’m assuming the Argos have the same problem as the Leafs – ownership knows they don’t need to put together a competitive team because the fan base is so rabid no matter what.  Plus I don’t like the fact that they gave away a home game to Buffalo.

3. Calgary OVER 9.5

Calgary is home to Bret “The Hitman” Hart and the biggest rodeo in North America, and that’s good enough for me.

2. Winnipeg OVER 9

Winnipeg’s team is called the Blue Bombers, which was also a nickname for Mega Man back in the 90s.  I played a lot of Mega Man video games back then, so I’m taking the over.

1. Edmonton UNDER 7

If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll notice that the win totals I made up add up to 70.5, which is 1.5 less than the total wins available.  (You’ll also notice that some of your life choices have been highly questionable.)  Given that, it seems like I should’ve picked more overs than unders, but let’s face it, I don’t really care.  Nor do I care to find out anything real about Edmonton or its team, so here’s something I just made up:  The Eskimos’ stadium is large enough to fit the entire population of Edmonton.  Sadly, this makes it the smallest stadium in the league, with a capacity of just 3,500.  With very little crowd noise, look for Edmonton to suffer at home.  Take the under, then sit back and pop the bubbly.

This and Dap

Want to throw some dap Louis’ way.  Back about a month and a half ago Louis proclaimed “Stanford cannot tackle.”  He went on to say he would take Oregon whenever the two played.  His analysis was spot on.  Stanford’s inability to tackle (and Andrew Luck being exposed) was probably the difference in last night’s game.  The only reason Louis did not end up putting bills on the bills (duck humor) was because his gf Deepa is a Stanford alum.  Great pick.

Follow up dap on that game.  A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read.  In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU.  To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there.  Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th.  I quote…

“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.”  Brilliant.

Boxing.  I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite?  So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog.  Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by.  This has to have gambling implications.

I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there.  But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league.  I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league.  3 picks a week.  With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3.  How ugly are those picks?

Quiet No More

April is traditionally a slow gambling month. Despite the NHL and NBA playoffs kicking off, there’s not usually much action to be found. Thankfully, a couple of items have popped up for this weekend:

Les Habitants

From Puck Prospectus:

December 19th is the line of demarcation for me. That’s when Montreal’s prime mover, defenseman Andrei Markov, returned from a freak injury suffered on opening night. At that point in the season––through 37 games––the Canadiens had gone a poor but rather fortunate 16-18-3 (.473 winning percentage) given the fact that they were 8-3 in extra time. Montreal detractors––which includes essentially everyone writing or talking hockey right now, from the conventional pundits to my sabermetrically savvy colleagues at Puck Prospectus––point to the uninspiring results of those early season Price-led, Markov-less Canadiens when explaining away how fortunate the Habs were to upset the Capitals and why they have no shot against the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. But you’re talking about two completely different teams. Whether conflating those two teams indiscriminately, or conflating them in the name of collecting a larger sample size, you’re bound to get fooled by these Habs, and surprised by the results.

After Markov’s return, the Canadiens finished the final 45 games of the regular season with a fine 23-15-9 (.589 winning percentage) run – as hot as any Eastern Conference team over that stretch of games, other than––of course––Washington. Even more impressively, with Markov in the lineup and Halak in goal, Montreal transformed from a team scoring 2.47 GF/game (30th in NHL) and allowing 2.88 GA/game (18th in NHL) with -0.41 GD/game (25th in NHL) to a team scoring 2.91 GF/game (8th in NHL) and allowing 2.48 GA/game (4th in NHL) with a 0.42 GD/game (5th in NHL). Sure, the team that beat the Capitals may have been the “16th overall seed”––lucky to get in the playoffs over the Rangers with a mere 88 points––but don’t get fooled: it was the 5th best team in the league upsetting the best team in the league with the help of an outstanding performance in goal.

But December 19th is not just for the Canadiens; it provides an illuminating starting point for looking at the Penguins as well. Through 36 games, Pittsburgh was a scalding 25-10-1 (.708 winning percentage), fourth in the NHL at +25 GVT, a hair’s breadth behind Washington’s league-leading +30 GVT. Yet over the next 46 games, the Pens went a tepid 22-18-6 (.543 winning percentage), their lackluster performance camouflaged by the wins and points accumulated in October and November. Keeping in mind that a .561 winning percentage is average––given the additional points given for overtime losses––you’re talking about a below average team over the course of more than half the regular season, regardless of their pedigree as defending Stanley Cup champions, regardless of their marquee exposure, regardless of their big name superstars. Perception is about as far from reality as you can get – With both teams.

The series is currently tied at 2-2 and you can get the same price on Montreal to win the series, roughly +300, as was available four games ago. I’ve also got small action on Montreal wo win the East and the Stanley Cup at +900 and +2200 respectively.

La Liga

It’s the second to last week of the season and once again time to involve the favorite team of Miracle Covers: Athletico Madrid.
Opponents Sporting Gijon are -150 at home tomorrow.

Since mid-March, two teams have been playing their La Liga matches as though the tournament were a sporting version of Asterix’s Roman Legion: an entertaining way to know new cities, make some friends and get food for free. Atletico are one of them.

Atletico’s week passed by placidly, talking about their upcoming Europa League final, with happy statements from players and coach (Quique Sanchez even said: “We work to bring happiness to the people”, and I can’t even think of a politically correct pun here). They even managed to beat Valladolid on Wednesday, in an almost unintended way, taking advantage of Clemente’s team wasteful first half and subsequent hara-kiri after Atletico scored first.

Sporting aren’t totally free of trouble yet, but they will be after playing Atletico’s B side on Saturday.

Lastly, the Round Rock Express have a new pitcher.