Category: Other Sports
Saturday Night Leans
NCAA:
Kansas St vs TCU Over 59
UFC:
Wagner Silva +400
Boxing:
Hopkins vs Kovalev Going the Distance +250
NBA:
BOS at CHI Over 194
Last Day
Disappointing bubbling the WSOP Millionaire Maker (I finished 50 out of the money, Ace King losing to 98 of diamonds on 36675 board), but sports betting (thank you, Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics) and other degenerate ventures have been very profitable (I bet against the Red Sox just b/c Lackey was on the mound. Then I took that win and tripled it at the roulette table in 10 minutes), including a nice score at the Aria, winning a $125 tournament of over 287 players:
Fruits of a long days work @ariapoker #grind #shipit pic.twitter.com/TROmq19D1L
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) June 3, 2014
I also won a seat to the WPT $565 Deepstack Aria Open, which means I’ll be back here in July. Just in time for football futures (and bankroll leaks).
This is how good the trip has ended: after busting out of the Millionaire Maker on my way through the Bellagio, I find a $100 bill on the ground (which later was put in parlay that hit). Now THAT is a miracle cover!
Here are my picks today:
Mets EVEN
PHI/WSH over
Wonderful time of year
With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!
Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:
Expect more goals in the NHL this year since the rule change to goalie pad sizes. All the games last night went OVER. #goodforthegame
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) October 2, 2013
That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey. Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.
In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS. A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.
In NFL:
Miami -3 (+105) v BAL
Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road. Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds. And we’re gambling….
Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET
Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic). Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.
PHI v NY Giants Over 53
These defenses stink
San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK
Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling! Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.
JAX at St Louis (tie)
I wish I could bet this as a tie. No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.
Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:
Soccer and Hockey weekend Drunken Recap
I don’t remember much of the games b/c I was hammered, but these two videos summarize the drunken wild weekend in Soccer and Hockey:
This was our buddy Putland when Yeovil Town won the Playoff for the Npower League One Final, despite their opponent Brentford being a 2.12 to 1 favourite:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyXOQxiFeqg&feature=player_embedded#t=123s
John Tortorella also has a career in commentary if he ever gets canned:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4R3K-oZ4T10
Betting tip of the week:
Stock market guys often brag about getting 8-10% on some of their investments. Imagine if one came along that had the potential to make 33%? They would be as bullish as *I* am on the Miami Heat to win the title now at 1/3.
Big Norm – Real Man of Genius
I’m thinking about taking Over 6.5 on Saskatchewan simply because of the man in Regina and video below:
Nick’s Over/Unders
I was going to do a “control” pick – kind of like when they have an animal pick games against the expert, or when Bill Simmons picked NFL games against his wife – because my interest in/knowledge of baseball is at an all-time low, and I didn’t know much about it even back when I cared. So I thought it might be interesting to compare my know-nothing/random picks to two guys who actually follow MLB. But then I realized that even staring at a list of team over/unders for 10 minutes and pretending to have any opinion would be way more time and attention than I’m willing to commit to baseball. So in lieu of that, I present my Canadian Football League over/unders!
All lines were made up by me, because no one has posted any CFL over/unders, and I doubt anyone ever will. But Bodoga does have 2012 Grey Cup odds currently posted, and the win totals I made up do roughly follow those odds posted at Bodoga, so they should be pretty fair. And even if they’re not, I don’t know anything about how good or bad any team is, so I’m still shooting blind. I’m assuming that CFL teams play an 18-game regular season schedule (Roger Goodell is SO HARD RIGHT NOW) based on the fact that I looked at Montreal’s schedule this year and counted up 18 regular-season games and 2 exhibitions. As an added handicap, my confidence points only go up to 8, because there are only 8 teams. If I still manage to beat either Pat or Lou, he should be very ashamed.
Before I begin, I should point out that my extensive research process turned up an interesting fact: Last year was the first time ever that every CFL team was under the salary cap. Good to know. Anyway, here goes:
8. Saskatchewan UNDER 6.5
Saskatchewan, besides being hard to type, is the biggest longshot to win the Grey Cup at 9/1. They’re also the most remote team, hailing from some God-forsaken place in the middle of nowhere. They might not even be in a province for all I know. We know about the dangers of a West Coast team travelling East in the NFL, but this should be worse: A North Pole team travelling South. And probably East most of the time, too. Add in the fact that ever since Ottawa folded, Saskatchewan are the only Roughriders left in the league, and I say they go under. This is my Lock Of The Week!
7. Montreal OVER 9.5
I like their city, I like their team name (Alouettes), and their jersey is so heinous that it has to distract the other team. Plus they have a unique homefield advantage in that the visiting team is so worn out from the strip clubs and hookers that they can’t give 100%. Plus their QB was the subject of a good article on Grantland. This is my Shoe-in Of The Week!
6. Hamilton OVER 11
They are the 4/1 favorite to win the Grey Cup, and their name is the Tiger-Cats. Not the Tigers, mind you, the Tiger-Cats. I’m not sure if this is just Canadians being over-specific, or if they’re talking about some bizarre mad science-style housecat/tiger hybrid. I guess the idea behind that would be something that looks mostly like a tiger, but is smaller and capable of being domesticated, so that it doesn’t maul you during your magic act? Anyway, I like the over.
5. BC UNDER 10
Even when it doesn’t stand for Boston College, BC still sucks.
4. Toronto UNDER 8
I’m assuming the Argos have the same problem as the Leafs – ownership knows they don’t need to put together a competitive team because the fan base is so rabid no matter what. Plus I don’t like the fact that they gave away a home game to Buffalo.
3. Calgary OVER 9.5
Calgary is home to Bret “The Hitman” Hart and the biggest rodeo in North America, and that’s good enough for me.
2. Winnipeg OVER 9
Winnipeg’s team is called the Blue Bombers, which was also a nickname for Mega Man back in the 90s. I played a lot of Mega Man video games back then, so I’m taking the over.
1. Edmonton UNDER 7
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll notice that the win totals I made up add up to 70.5, which is 1.5 less than the total wins available. (You’ll also notice that some of your life choices have been highly questionable.) Given that, it seems like I should’ve picked more overs than unders, but let’s face it, I don’t really care. Nor do I care to find out anything real about Edmonton or its team, so here’s something I just made up: The Eskimos’ stadium is large enough to fit the entire population of Edmonton. Sadly, this makes it the smallest stadium in the league, with a capacity of just 3,500. With very little crowd noise, look for Edmonton to suffer at home. Take the under, then sit back and pop the bubbly.
This and Dap
Want to throw some dap Louis’ way. Back about a month and a half ago Louis proclaimed “Stanford cannot tackle.” He went on to say he would take Oregon whenever the two played. His analysis was spot on. Stanford’s inability to tackle (and Andrew Luck being exposed) was probably the difference in last night’s game. The only reason Louis did not end up putting bills on the bills (duck humor) was because his gf Deepa is a Stanford alum. Great pick.
Follow up dap on that game. A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read. In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU. To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there. Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th. I quote…
“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.” Brilliant.
Boxing. I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite? So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog. Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by. This has to have gambling implications.
I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there. But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league. I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league. 3 picks a week. With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3. How ugly are those picks?
Quiet No More
April is traditionally a slow gambling month. Despite the NHL and NBA playoffs kicking off, there’s not usually much action to be found. Thankfully, a couple of items have popped up for this weekend:
Les Habitants
From Puck Prospectus:
December 19th is the line of demarcation for me. That’s when Montreal’s prime mover, defenseman Andrei Markov, returned from a freak injury suffered on opening night. At that point in the season––through 37 games––the Canadiens had gone a poor but rather fortunate 16-18-3 (.473 winning percentage) given the fact that they were 8-3 in extra time. Montreal detractors––which includes essentially everyone writing or talking hockey right now, from the conventional pundits to my sabermetrically savvy colleagues at Puck Prospectus––point to the uninspiring results of those early season Price-led, Markov-less Canadiens when explaining away how fortunate the Habs were to upset the Capitals and why they have no shot against the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. But you’re talking about two completely different teams. Whether conflating those two teams indiscriminately, or conflating them in the name of collecting a larger sample size, you’re bound to get fooled by these Habs, and surprised by the results.
After Markov’s return, the Canadiens finished the final 45 games of the regular season with a fine 23-15-9 (.589 winning percentage) run – as hot as any Eastern Conference team over that stretch of games, other than––of course––Washington. Even more impressively, with Markov in the lineup and Halak in goal, Montreal transformed from a team scoring 2.47 GF/game (30th in NHL) and allowing 2.88 GA/game (18th in NHL) with -0.41 GD/game (25th in NHL) to a team scoring 2.91 GF/game (8th in NHL) and allowing 2.48 GA/game (4th in NHL) with a 0.42 GD/game (5th in NHL). Sure, the team that beat the Capitals may have been the “16th overall seed”––lucky to get in the playoffs over the Rangers with a mere 88 points––but don’t get fooled: it was the 5th best team in the league upsetting the best team in the league with the help of an outstanding performance in goal.
But December 19th is not just for the Canadiens; it provides an illuminating starting point for looking at the Penguins as well. Through 36 games, Pittsburgh was a scalding 25-10-1 (.708 winning percentage), fourth in the NHL at +25 GVT, a hair’s breadth behind Washington’s league-leading +30 GVT. Yet over the next 46 games, the Pens went a tepid 22-18-6 (.543 winning percentage), their lackluster performance camouflaged by the wins and points accumulated in October and November. Keeping in mind that a .561 winning percentage is average––given the additional points given for overtime losses––you’re talking about a below average team over the course of more than half the regular season, regardless of their pedigree as defending Stanley Cup champions, regardless of their marquee exposure, regardless of their big name superstars. Perception is about as far from reality as you can get – With both teams.
The series is currently tied at 2-2 and you can get the same price on Montreal to win the series, roughly +300, as was available four games ago. I’ve also got small action on Montreal wo win the East and the Stanley Cup at +900 and +2200 respectively.
La Liga
It’s the second to last week of the season and once again time to involve the favorite team of Miracle Covers: Athletico Madrid.
Opponents Sporting Gijon are -150 at home tomorrow.
Since mid-March, two teams have been playing their La Liga matches as though the tournament were a sporting version of Asterix’s Roman Legion: an entertaining way to know new cities, make some friends and get food for free. Atletico are one of them.
Atletico’s week passed by placidly, talking about their upcoming Europa League final, with happy statements from players and coach (Quique Sanchez even said: “We work to bring happiness to the people”, and I can’t even think of a politically correct pun here). They even managed to beat Valladolid on Wednesday, in an almost unintended way, taking advantage of Clemente’s team wasteful first half and subsequent hara-kiri after Atletico scored first.
Sporting aren’t totally free of trouble yet, but they will be after playing Atletico’s B side on Saturday.
Lastly, the Round Rock Express have a new pitcher.
Marathon Monday – A Bettor’s Guide to the Action
Marathon Monday is less than two weeks away. Essentially everyone who reads this site knows that I have a substantial amount of money riding on my performance this year. I have given Bones and DaGow 13:1 odds that I will break the four hour mark this year, at 50 and 20 bucks respectively. Intense stuff. In addition to that I have a couple of 50 dollar straight up bets out there based on beating four hours and a pub crawl bet with a girl whose also running. With all that in mind, here is the odds breakdown.
WILL PAT D BREAK FOUR HOURS:
Yes : -200
No : +200
For anyone not fluent in gamblese, -200 means that the odds are 1:2 that something will happen, you bet two dollars to win one. +200 means the odds are 2:1, you bet one dollar to win two. The reason I am making myself a favorite is because I just have so much damn money bet on myself. If I was running this for fun it would probably be just as likely that I would be drinking booze halfway through the race. With that in mind…
Will Pat D Run the Entire Marathon
Yes : -500
No : +500
I have entered the Boston Marathon twice, finishing it once (4 hrs, 30 mins) and dropping out after 17 miles the second time. Again, this line would be a lot different if I didn’t have a boatload on the line.
Over/Under Water or Sports Drinks During Race : 11.5
I honestly have never kept track of this in the past but I am guessing this sounds about right. As a guide, the absolute minimum I could see on drinks would be like 8 or 9.
Will Pat D Beat the Random Girl Mentioned Above Who You Have Never Met (Updated)
Yes : Even Money (Updated Line)
No : Even Money (Updated Line)
You know you want to bet on this, you know you are tempted to throw five dollars on or against a girl you have never met. As a guide, she is in her mid-20s in good condition. I am almost 100% positive she has never run a marathon before, and I currently have an email out to her asking what time she expects to run the race in. I may update the line accordingly when a response gets back, but this is the line at this moment.
UPDATE
Originally, this line was me -250, and the girl +250. However, I received this email response back from her when I asked about time…
I’m shooting for 3:40, but will probably be more like 3:45ish. What about u?????
CRIPES! This girl means business. First of all, she has her expected time nailed down to a five minute window, and on top of that she pops out with FIVE IN YOUR FACE QUESTION MARKS right back in my grill asking me what time I expected. I was even tempted to make her a slight favorite at this point but I do hold one slight advantage over her and that’s that I have run the race before. But goodness.
SECOND UPDATE
Follow up e-mail from Corinne
I ran in 2007 in 4:16
Oh Billy!
Will the Sox Game Still be Going On as I pass Fenway
Yes : Even Money
No : Even Money
Opening pitch at the game is scheduled for 11:05 AM. I will hit the starting line somewhere around 10:35 AM. You do your own math. Note : If I drop out, “No” wins.
Will I Ejaculate From Now Until the Marathon
Yes : +500
No : -500
You will notice that for all these lines I have excluded juice from the action.
That’s about all I got for plays at the moment. If any other good ones pop into people’s minds feel free to make additions.
Boat Race 2010 – Will a Boat Sink?
The 156th Oxford-Cambridge boat race takes place tomorrow in London. Oxford are favored at roughly -250, but picking the winner isn’t the most interesting play.
Pinnacle has a line (below) for “Will a Boat Sink?” currently at -1650. I know most of you don’t enjoy betting large favorites, but a boat has only sunk 5 times in 156 races and none in the past 30 years. The flip side is that the odds opened at 33-1 and have been cut almost in half thanks to poor weather being forecast and mildly heavy betting on the sinking side. 
I think I’ve written about this before, but rowing was THE sport, similar to NFL in the United States now, in the 19th century, but it’s popularity waned as gambling scandals and fixing became more and more common. There is much to read here (rowinghistory.net) but these two stories stood out:
Another tactic used by the unscrupulous backers was to try to influence the betting odds. Faking an illness just prior to a race is one way to boost the odds and make for a bigger pay-out after the unexpected victory, but there were other ways as well. Cleaver wrote in The History Of Rowing about a race between the Australians, Harry Searle and Julius Woolf, on the Parramatta River in 1866.
Woolf had been defeated by Stansbury a fortnight earlier, so he was not much in favor with the betting public, and it looked as if Searle’s backers would have to be content with the bare prize-money. John Spencer [Searle’s manager] refrained from betting at all before the start of the race, and instructed Searle to hang back and “feel” Woolf in the early stages, and, as soon as he was sure of his man, to shake his head from side to side, but not to go to the front until he got a signal from Spencer, who was in a boat following the race.
The race had barely started when Searle’s head was seen to wobble violently. This caused loud laughter among those who had never seen Searle race before. Meanwhile, his commissioners were snapping up every bet offered, with Woolf still leading and going great guns. Suddenly Spencer waved a red handkerchief and in a hundred yards Searle was a length ahead, and the issue beyond doubt.
The Town of Barrie [Canada] was holding its second annual regatta on Kempenfeldt Bay and had invited an American, James H. Riley, to row against Hanlan. The champion [Hanlan] had agreed, against his better judgement. He was not in good condition after his recent trip across the Atlantic, and halfway through the course Hanlan had to stop. Riley was stunned and refused to cross the finish line. He had obviously placed bets on Hanlan and would lose his money if he won the race. The judges were flabbergasted by the whole affair, ruled the race a draw and ordered a re-row. Hanlan declined, preferring to forfeit the prize money.
