Month: October 2014
Friday
1-1 for a push or microscopic loss last night as Buffalo lost 3-2 and St. Louis won 2-0. Single play tonight Toronto -115 @ Columbus
And in a stunning upset, I may wager on amateur tackle football tomorrow
Thursday
No plays for us yesterday but we have a couple of home teams going tonight. 1/2 unit plays on these unlike the visitors.
Boston @ Buffalo +195
Anaheim @ St. Louis -105
Philly is a notable pass away to Tampa tonight.
Game 7
and I’ve got nothing…No bets, no leans. There is probably some value on the Giants at +125 to +130 but this is a game to pass on. Devils got smushed last night 8-3 after being up 1-0 after 8 seconds and 3-1 halfway into the 2nd. Undone by a near own goal in the first and some nitty and/or dumb penalties to the top powerplay team in the league. Nothing doing on either game tonight, but a full slate again Thursday
Tuesday
A poor 0-0 yesterday as Washington and Edmonton won covered easily, with both teams playing arguably their best games of the season. I will be re-working some of my modeling this next week to try and keep this from happening again. Single play tonight and it’s a longshot, New Jersey +170 @ Pittsburgh. New Jersey is challenging the coinflip theory of shootouts, having lost their last 10 billion in a row, so they’ll likely need to win outright versus our usual strategy of forcing overtime and hope the result goes our way.
The under (7) looks good to me tonight in baseball but I am passing and not playing.
Game 6
I like the Royals tonight -142 vs the Giants. Peavy is a great NL pitcher, but he just shits the bed in AL parks (and he has a 7.34 postseason ERA). I also love betting teams, down 3-2, in Game 6s. Especially teams with fight like the Royals.
Also, thanks to Lou for the Bills and Washington plays (I luckily got the Washington Colt McCoys at +10……part of a hedge for my season under 7.5 wins bet…which could be in jeopardy after their two games as they play the Vikings and the Bucs).
Another early NFL lean: KC -10 vs the Jets at -115. Get it now before the juice/line goes up. Chiefs are 6-1 vs the spread this year, are a great home team, and Mike Vick is starting at QB for the Jets. Watch the “highlights” of him playing vs the Chargers and Bills, throwing balls into the dirt like it was a god damned cricket match. Add a rift between the GM and the (lame duck) head coach over the Jets’ QB situation, and its easy money, IMO.
Monday
A winning Sunday for us yesterday as all plays were easy winners. NFL numbers have improved to merely below average here at the halfway point and we are an expected 5-5 in hockey plays. Two games of note this evening. In NFL, Washington is interesting at +10 but is currently at 9 or 9.5 and will likely end up being a pass. I will think about it if it hits 10 again though. In hockey, only two games and I’m considering Edmonton at home to Montreal. All of the numbers point to the smart play being on Edmonton, I just would like a better price. It is up to 124 at Pinnacle but I really don’t know what I’m going to do with it. 9:30 start time so we will wait and see. Full Tuesday NHL schedule tomorrow.
UPDATE: I was very close but am going to ultimately pass on Edmonton
Sunday
Really enjoying the Sunday morning Falcons-Lions affair, though the Lions are clearly jetlagged. We need more late night west coast games too, preferably involving the Raiders.
One confirmed play so far as I am working through the numbers like an underpaid analyst here on a Sunday morning. Updates as we go along and there will hopefully be a west coast hockey game tonight. Also a sincere apology from me for missing the over of the year in the Stars/Islanders game which finished 7-5, smushing the over by 6 goals. I don’t normally bet totals in NHL and so didn’t even think about this until after the game had started Neither team plays very much defense and both will at least be in the top 5 in goals scored at the end of the year. Dallas doesn’t have enough quality top 4 defensemen, but the Islanders just have too many forwards that simply don’t work hard enough without the puck. Islanders need an faceoff guy as well.
Buffalo +3 -115 @ Jets
Colts @ Steelers +3.5 -105
UPDATE: Sharks +135 @ Anaheim
Week 8 NFL
ATL +3 (late to this one but I woke up at 9am and saw that “Holy shit, DET has their #1 and 3 WR, and all of their TEs out! They essentially signed the TE they traveled with just b/c he had a passport!”)
BAL/CIN under 45
GB +1 (EVEN)
OAK v CLE Under 43.5 (EVEN)
CAR +6
TEASER (+175):
BUF +3
GB +1
BAL/CIN Under 45
And in the spirit of miracle covers, here’s how Lou got screwed over for some of the runs in his under lats night:
How the Giants scored: Walk, wild pitch, steal, fielder's choice.
How the Royals scored: single, FC, steal, infield single, infield single.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 26, 2014
Saturday
I still can’t find a freaking hockey game that is suitable enough to my liking. Rangers away to Montreal are really close, but I am still going to pass. Boston @ Toronto is another not terrible option I’m also choosing against. Should be something NFL or otherwise tomorrow.
UPDATE: Giants/Royals UNDER 7 -125
NCAA Saturday
LSU ML +135
Kent St +6.5
Teaser (@+275):
MSU -17
Texas Tech vs TCU Over 72
Central Florida -7
PROS: Maryland +11, Kent St +6.5, Washington St +3, Texas St +3.5 JOES: Miss St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Memphis, Alabama, Marshall, Ohio St
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) October 25, 2014
Also some UFC bonus plays:
William “Patolino” Macario +135
Jose “Scarface” Aldo vs Chad “Money” Mendes – Total Rounds Over 4.5 at +110
