Tag: Boxing
Pacquiao vs Bradley 3
Did any of you know that tonight is Manny Pacquiao’s last fight? Me neither.
Should be a boring fight vs Tim Bradley, and I don’t expect anything too crazy between these two. Manny’s lost his punching power (*sneeze sneeze*) and he’s coming off losing all his sponsors because he was caught saying he hates gays in an interview. Tim Bradley’s last 10 out of 11 fights went to a decision, and the last guy he just TKO’d, Brandon Rios, is one of those guys who should have retired 5 fights ago. Both of the previous fights with these two, went to decision.
Bet this yawn fest and pay rent tomorrow:
Pacquiao vs Bradley FIGHT GOES TO DECISION -350
GS Warriors thoughts
As I noted back in November, I took the Warriors at +310 to win 73 games and beat the 95-96 Chicago Bulls best regular season record of 72 wins. As it currently stands, Golden State needs to win 5 out of its last 7 games to pull off this feat. Which leads to lots of fun hedging opportunities.
There are only 4 games I can potentially see them losing:
vs Celtics (which is tonight)
vs Blazers
at Spurs
vs Spurs
The Blazers are a competent team and Lillard is one of the best PGs in the league. But the game is in GSW where they (and San Antonio) are undefeated at home. Which is nuts, considering only 2 teams in NBA history have gone 40-1 at home (the 86 Celtics and the 96 Bulls), never mind undefeated. The line on both GSW and San Antonio going undefeated at home for the rest of the season (regular season and playoffs) is +700, for those wondering.
One hedge I am taking tonight is the Celtics. They have Jae Crowder back, the best coach in the league, and a team which can score against the Warriors. They have lost 4 in a row to the Warriors, but each time doing so by 5 points or less. They covered when (Klay Thompson-less) GSW came to Boston, losing in double overtime. I expect this game to be super competitive and believe the Celtics will cover the 12.5 points (-115). I am also using some of my hedge cash to put the line in a teaser with the over at 222, as well as the +820 money line. This will be a fun game tonight and it’s one of the few times I’ll recommend watching a regular season NBA game all year.
The other two potential losses on the GSW schedule are vs the San Antonio Spurs, who are having an awesome season which has gone under the radar with GSW’s success (which Greg Popovich must love as he subscribes to the Bill Belichick School of Media Attention). The Spurs are 5 games behind GSW for home court throughout the playoffs….so barring a GSW mini losing streak (neither team has lost back-to-back games all year…no team has ever done that in NBA history, and this year *2* may do so!!!!111), there’s no reason for Popovich, known to rest his starters, history or whatever else be damned, to come out “balls out” vs the Warriors in those two games. They already beat the Warriors at home earlier in 2016. But will he actually play his guys to try and beat GSW to thwart history, a la the NY Giants tried to do at home vs the NE Patriots in 2007 in week 17? Time will tell (and we’ll certainly be reading the beat writers in SA to find out on gameday just how he proceeds).
BOXING BONUS: Adrien Broner vs Ashley Theophane Over 8.5 Rounds -320
Cotto vs Canelo Thoughts
Big fight tonight as Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces Puerto Rico’s Miguel Cotto for a unification title fight.
Canelo is coming off of a blistering KO of James Kirkland, and has only lost once (to Floyd Mayweather in a decision). He has power, but is considered more of a technical fighter like his promoter and former champion, Oscar De La Hoya. He is the younger fighter (25), and the favorite at -260.
Cotto is a legend in the sport for putting on some of the most gruesome fights in the sport. He blooded Floyd’s face in a catchweight bout, and is considered to have a great chin. He’s a zombie who just keeps on coming forward. He is 35 and aging and has hinted he is only going to fight a few more times; his next rumored bout would be against the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now, Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. A win tonight for Cotto would make that fight even bigger. Cotto has lost his last two fights via decision, and has changed his corner man to Freddie Roach (who corners Pacquiao). Roach claims Cotto will KO Canelo, but this is also the guy who said Rousey would KO Holly Holm and we all know how that worked out. He is a +200 underdog.
As for my thoughts? I again like the Over Rounds 11.5 tonight at -160. This line started at -200 and has moved down and I believe we are getting great value here. We have one fighter who has a granite chin and another fighter who is more technical than a brawler. Canelo has improved his power, but I don’t think it will be enough to put Cotto down in this fight (although Cotto’s fighting style will certainly give Canelo opportunities to score). The last guy Canelo KO’d, James Kirkland, is a “KO or be KO’d” type of fighter. While Cotto fights wild, he is also smart enough to pace himself AND has a gifted chin (which is why he is loved by boxing fans everywhere; he doesn’t quit).
I expect Canelo to use his youth in terms of cardio to “box and score” around the ring and make Cotto work to get into the brawling style close quarter exchanges he wants. I expect Canelo to win in a competitive split decision. The fight is in Vegas, so the crowd (and judges) will be on Canelo’s side. Canelo to win by decision is at +110 for those interested.
NCAA BONUS:
ND vs BC Under 43
Mayweather vs Berto
Quick sure bets for Mayweather vs Berto on Saturday Night:
Over Rounds 11.5 – 240
Fight goes the Distance – 205
Floyd picked this fight so he could run around Berto for 12 rounds and get a quick decision to match Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. Berto has a good chin, and in his last loss got knocked down twice and was able to finish the fight, losing in a decision. Floyd has immaculate cardio, an underrated chin, and precision defensive boxing that allows him to manage how the fight goes. The only worry is that Berto “goes for it” and opens his chin to a counter……but Floyd’s power is his really his only weakness (which is why he fights the way he does; smart really).
The last two guys Mayweather KO’d were Ricky “Fatton” Hatton (who probably killed himself to make weight, hence why he ran out of gas by the 8th round) and Victor Ortiz (who Floyd sucker punched…”legally”). Berto is too tough for that stuff and I foresee these guys holding onto each other for 12 rounds like they are on prom night. Mayweather “Overs” have hit 5 fights in a row.
Mayweather is +170 to win by KO, if you are curious and want to hedge.
Boring fights make for boring decisions…..but padding one’s bankroll is exciting enough!
BONUS: Swansea FC +170
Manny vs Floyd
Wow, it feels like I should or written this article 5 years ago…..oh right, I should have because then this over hyped fight might actually be good. It would of probably only cost $79 instead of the $99 it does now.
Both guys are way past their primes now, but there are caveats to both. Floyd has lost his power punch (insert Pat Darts’ style highly inappropriate DV joke here); the last two fighters he’s KO’d were Victor Ortiz (who? oh yeah, that guy) and Ricky “Fatton” Hatton. He’s still the best technical fighter of the modern era, maybe ever, and can take a punch as well. Add the fact he is part of one of the greatest boxing family dynasties in the Mayweathers (all crazy as him). He is one of the best ever. But 7 out of his last 9 his fights have ended in a decision, including 5 in a row. I know this because I’ve bet every single one of them.
BUT…..Floyd hasn’t really had a rival during his time though, and that has been a scratch against his career. Enter Manny Pacquiao. A more entertaining fighter, a champion of the Philippines, he burst onto the scene KO’ing people left and right in highly entertaining bouts. He was on a tear going into this potential fight in 2007, before it got derailed by ego and money and Floyd being somewhat of a pussy. Floyd wanted him to do a blood test and Manny got offended…..but years of PED allegations have stuck with Manny especially since NSAC testing standards increased right along the decrease in Pacquiao’s punching power.
These guys were the two best fighters in the world in 2007, and decided to choose ego over the sport. The only winner was the UFC, who has grown six-fold since then.
He still out throws every guy he fights at a 2-to-1 pace…..but it just doesn’t “get there” as much as it used to. His undefeated record was gone with a stunning decision loss to Tim Bradley. Then, he got KO’d in a bout recently against Juan Manuel Marquez (who also got caught using PEDs later on; great integrity in this sport!). Manny’s invincibility has been fading, but not his resolve. He has come back strong winning his last few fights, including a 12 round clinic he put on vs Brandon Rios (we took the over rounds; a bet we made here at Miracle Covers!).
Manny is a better athlete, but Floyd has the better chin and footwork. The fighters essentially cancel each other out, which is why I’m recommending the Fight ending in Decision at -310 and over rounds 11.5 at -265 (this is a great line on a site I found; it was like finding gold in your backyard). The decision line actually started at -365….which means money is coming in on the KO/TKO/Under rounds. I don’t understand why because I think this is free money.
The second line the prudent bettor should be taking is the Pacquiao KO line at +1000. At the books this is at +480…but only b/c that action is coming in heavy on Manny; the volume of bets are on Manny’s side (+180), but the big money is on Floyd (-210). Betting Manny to win in a decision is risky because I don’t trust the judges in Vegas as the MGM is where he lost that controversial decision to Tim Bradley. Plus, if he wants to cement his legacy as being better than Floyd: then I think he has to KO Floyd.
If a surprise happens, it will be either a) a Mayweather decision that he didn’t deserve (this is at -110; my other recommendation), or Manny actually knocking him the fuck out and shocking the world.
I am betting that this will be one of the most boring fights ever and it probably will be because if we know one thing about boxing…..someone watching will always leave disappointed.
Kentucky Derby BONUS:
American Pharoah 17/2
