Buzzed and Fiesty
This is my big bet for the year. And the other ones are big (thats what she said) because I am stuck.
Dolphins -3.5 -110 @ 80
Bears +9 +100
Panthers -4 -105
Under Jets/Pats 47 -103
NFL Week 16
Carolina -4
Newton is playing today, they are at home, still in the NFC South fail title hunt, and most importantly, I get to keep betting against Johnny Manziel!
Oakland +7 (-120)
Way too many points vs Buffalo, who have a great defense but Kyle Orton as QB. Both of Oakland’s wins have come at home. As Miracle Covers contributor and Bills fan Nick told me last night…..if you bet the Bills getting a TD in any situation, you deserve to lose your money. They’ll probably win the game by a FG, 16-13, if i had to guess an exacta.
Atlanta +6 (-105)
This game will be decided by a FG; historically these two teams have always played close games, no matter the record. Also for an inside track to the NFC South title…so expect a playoff style, grind it out game. Julio Jones is also active for the Dirty Birds.
IND vs DAL Under 55
A lot of point for a pretty important game for both teams, and their horses (Hilton for IND, Murray for DAL) are banged up and may not play. As a side note, our boy Cousin Sal gave me a shout out in this week’s prop bets column!
Seattle -8
It’s Ryan Lindley (who in his last start vs Seattle, lost 58-0. He’s also never thrown a TD pass in his career in 151 straight passing attempts) vs Russell Wilson. I pick Russell Wilson.
TEASER:
Seattle -8 and NE -11
As Bill Simmons mentioned in his last column, ” If you lose, you do so to either Geno Smith or Ryan Lindley (vs Brady and Wilson). Acceptable odds.” You can also throw any 3rd team of your choice; ideas for that third team? DET -9, KC +3, CAR -4.
Shitty Bowl Game Saturday
As mentioned, I’m going to pick every bowl game this season here and have plays on 65-75% The first game seems designed to have as a small an audience as possible, the New Orleans Bowl which kicks off at 10:00 am local time. It has the added benefit of being completely unbettable. I’ll be at brunch, thank you. Picking UL Lafayette because I have to pick someone. In fact, I won’t be watching any of these games if at all possible, since betting and watching are mutually exclusive activities. The remaining picks for today:
UTEP + 10 vs. Utah St.
Utah vs. Colorado St. +2.5
Western Michigan -2 vs. Air Force
South Alabama vs. Bowling Green +2.5
In NHL our strong week continued as all three leans were good. The Devils even won in a shootout, which is more rare than seeing a rainbow and a unicorn on the same day. Philly, Nashville and Carolina makeup the shortlist for tonight.
UPDATE: All of the previous teams mentioned for NHL make the list for tonight:
Philadelphia +150 @ Toronto
Rangers @ Carolina +130
Nashville +115 @ Minnesota
I don’t understand the Nashville line at all with Rinne in net tonight. Also forgot to check who was playing NFL today as Washington was on my shortlist for this weekend. Also some NBA because I’m an idiot, Indiana +3, to win +130 @ Denver
Friday
Panthers were a winner in a shootout last night to keep our excellent week going. It doesn’t look like there will be any plays this evening with New Jersey, Islanders and Winnipeg being the options from 5 games this evening. Amateur tackle football plays starting tomorrow with any other requisite NHL action.
Thursday
A much needed 2-0 day for us yesterday as both Boston and Dallas were winners. We are close to breakeven on the season. Single play tonight: Florida +122 @ Philadelphia. Fun fact, the Flyers have won 11 games this season and I think we’ve been against them in 9 of them.
Slight lean on Jacksonville tonight though over the past two years that’s been about as useless as shorting the stock market.
Good luck this evening.
Wednesday
0-2 for a -2.3 night as both our plays lost in shootouts, Washington epically so in the longest shootout in NHL history. I was highly disappointed the goalies were not required to shoot like in soccer.
One confirmed and one likely play tonight:
Boston +130 @ Minnesota
Waiting a bit on Dallas +150 @ Vancouver. Will update later as it’s a 10:00 east coast start.
UPDATE: Playing Dallas we’ll see if it’s 145 or 150
UPDATE 2: Dallas +145
Tuesday
1-1 yesterday as both teams had a one-goal advantage after 2 periods last night, good for a 70/30 or so edge. NHL teams are 83% in total to win when leading after 2. Both teams ended up in shootouts with the expected 1-1 outcome for a small win. Ultimately disappointing as we were potentially on for a +3u evening. Two more games for us this evening:
Washington -130 @ Florida
Boston +130 @ Nashville
We are a disappointing 24-31 -0.74 on the season to date. Some of our other standings:
NBA: 9-9-1 -0.6
NFL 15-12 +5.85
Lastly I’m planning on participating heavily in amateur football bowl season. I’ve come around to the fact that while I have zero interest in watching any college football, it can still be profitable nonetheless. We’ll see if this holds true over the next few weeks.
Monday
Both our NFL and NBA plays were easy winners yesterday. Hope some of you were following. I’ll get a season total posted on all sports soon. Plays on two of the three hockey games tonight featuring some of the same teams we have been enjoying and dreading the past 7-10 days:
New Jersey +170 @ Islanders
Ottawa @ Buffalo +130
No opinion on the Saints/Bears game tonight other than that most os you probably have better ways to be spending your time.
NFL Week 15
TB +3
Riding the Tampa train again; came close last week and we had a chance for miracle chopportunity at the end of the game as a drive petered out at the 10 yard line. No Cam Newton today; Derek Anderson beat the Bucs in Week 2 but they were a different team then and Tampa has been 60% ATS since their mauling in Atlanta.
CIN +1.5 (EVEN)
This started at +1 (-110). I don’t understand why it’s moving in the other direction, unless a bunch of fish are betting on Johnny Football. In their first meeting, AJ Green wasn’t playing and winds were at 15-20 mph in Cincinnati (which can be no jokes, especially for a QB like Dalton who has very little arm strength). This is also somewhat a hedge as I have taken both Baltimore (+450) and the Browns (+1200) to win the division.
TEASER: ATL +3 and OVER 55
This will be a close, entertaining, high score game with fail thrown in. Could be the game of the week. Means something to both teams.
TEASER (+450):
BAL -14, NE -10, KC -10, DET -8, CIN/CLE Under 44
Also a prop bet, which Darts hipped me onto the last time these two teams played: Over Total FG 3.5 (-110) in the SF at SEA game. These two teams kicked 6 FGs in their last meeting.
NOTES:
For those thinking about Miami, both Hightower and Chandler Jones are playing today.
Most bet NFL games:
1. Packers-Bills
2. Patriots-Dolphins
3. Cowboys-Eagles
Two most bet games are also the most lopsided: NE 77%, GB 75%.— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 14, 2014
Teams that will go Over their Season Win Total with a victory today:
Patriots
Packers
Eagles
Colts
Ravens
Steelers
Chargers
Texans
Vikings— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 14, 2014
NFL Sunday
Unlike Pat, I’m probably taking a single game and the line has since moved. Green Bay @ Buffalo +4 -115. Other leans this morning are Tampa, Kansas City, Washington and Miami. I will happily take Miami if it hits 10 but otherwise this and the other games are probably a pass. Will post any updates.
UPDATE: Bills easily covered the 4. Leans went 2-2. NBA because I’m an idiot Spurs -4
