February 2
Sean’s props were a small loser overall yesterday. The biggest upset was Ryan’s longest punt of 61 though he did have lots of opportunities especially in the first half. Pat and I both thought the total was a few points too high but didn’t play it or really come close and it would have lost regardless.
Hockey on Saturday was a exercise in frustration as Dallas won and the Kings lost in pretty standard games, but Edmonton led 2-0 after 2 periods and managed to lose 4-2, conceding three goals in 8 minutes in the 3rd. The shittiest hockey teams are incapable of playing a full game at a high level, but league-wide the winning percentage for teams that lead after two periods is something in the 80-85% range so I’m confident the +170 was good value even with the loss.
I’m debating Calgary tonight at home to Winnipeg who is starting their backup that may be better than their starter in Hutchinson tonight. -110 for both sides is readily available. The aforementioned Oilers are away to San Jose but haven’t named their starter as yet because why bother.
Super Bowl
Today is the big day! Here are my plays
Props:
Russell Wilson and Tom Brady to win MVP 13/4
Danny Amendola Over Yards 20.5 and Catches 2.5
John Ryan under longest gross punt 54.5
Tom Brady 1st play: pass completion -145
DJIA goes down day after EVEN
Tim Wright first TD 15/1
Edleman first TD 6/1
Field Goal/safety frst score +135
Bovada doesnt offer it, but Tim Wright Over catches 0.5 good value
Thoughts on the game:
I like Over (started at 49…now at 47). I think there will be big plays by both teams and it will be a close game. I like the Pats 27-26.
January 31
Winner-winner last night with our under. Three confirmed plays this evening:
Dallas +115 @ Winnipeg
Los Angeles +120 @ Boston
Edmonton +170 @ Calgary
Chicago is an option in the late game but I will likely pass
January 30
1-1 yesterday for a 1/2u loss. Nashville lost in a shootout and the Sharks won easily. Buffalo was not a favorite as I stated yesterday and lost 3-2. Single play tonight and it’s an UNDER, Chicago-Anaheim UNDER 5.5 -120
No NBA games I’m finding to lose small amounts of money on. Good luck tonight.
January 29
Penguins were no good yesterday in a 4-0 loss while Brooklyn covered. Two options tonight in a full slate are Nashville and San Jose. I’m going to wait on line moves before posting any plays. San Jose should end as a small favorite and in less likely while Nashville is up to 155-160 in some places. I’ll prefer that price to the 135 open if at all possible.
In mildly interesting news, Buffalo is a -185 favorite away to Edmonton this evening.
UPDATE: Nashville +155 @ St. Louis
UPDATE 2: The Nashville-St. Louis game is nuts. Anaheim @ San Jose -110 for 1/2u
January 28
I continued to prove why I should stick to hockey yesterday as Minnesota was a 2-1 winner as was Anaheim who won 4-0. An apology is owed as I spent the snow day drinking and didn’t get Anaheim up and posted before gametime or at all. The other two leaners were one goal losers. Basketball lost by a half point and Nishikori was a straight-up loser.
Two hockey options this evening and neither has started yet! First, Pittsburgh +105 @ Washington is a go for 1/2u and in the late game, the Kings are an option. L.A. will likely be a pass but I’ll update if that changes. 46-48-1 +8.04 for the season to date
NBA because I’m an idiot: Brooklyn +14
January 27
Digging out from a snow day here in the northeast. Milwaukee was a giant loser yesterday and Nishikori is still to play this evening. Wawrinka may be nursing an injury hence the play on Kei though it would be a coinflip anyway given recent form. Nishikori is up to -140 at some books.
Hockey is back though the betting options look a bit sparse. I took 1/2u on Minnesota last night at the open at -130 and that turned out to be a good idea as the Wild re up to -155 or -160 away to Edmonton tonight. Florida, Colorado and Anaheim make up the rest of the options for this evening, none of which are confirmed. Updates in a few hours per usual.
Lastly, our college hoops play tonight is Northern Illinois +9.5
January 26
Preparing to get snowed in…
UW-Milwaukee +13 -105
Also some tennis for tomorrow:
Nishikori -122 vs Wawrinka
NBA Sunday
Celtics/Golden State Over 213 (9-1 with Celtics Overs this season)
Also will put that in a teaser with Houston -8 at the Lakers.
Thanks Anthony Johnson, who shipped me a +220 dog yesterday in UFC, for allowing me to speculate wildly on NBA.
