Over/Under # of Over/Under Picks (.5)
And the winner is under…I simply do not love anything this year. But Ill be around…
March Madness Friday
VCU ML +160
Iona vs UCONN OVER 141.5 -110
Arizona St +5 -110
PARLAY +602: Purdue ML -10000, Gonzaga -15.5, Marquette -10, Iona/UCONN OVER 141.5
March Madness Thursday
Probably will have more during today on the Twitter feed as I’ll be at Encore Sportsbook
Missouri ML +105
Penn St vs Texas A&M UNDER 134.5 -110
West Virginia -2.5 -110
TEASER 4 PT -120: Kansas -22, Alabama -24, Furman +6
MLB Over/Unders
A positive year overall on these in ’22. The Yankees under pick was about as bad as it gets, but the AL Central stuff we played came through. Key to the rationale on the Central bets last year was the idea that the White Sox were being seemingly (some would say substantially) overvalued, especially relative to their division rivals. Heading into ’23, preliminary research overwhelmingly and repeatedly wants to lead us down a somewhat similar path. This time, it is the Dodgers looking vulnerable…Buehler out until very late, Lux the entire season. Do Tyler Anderson and Gonsolin have real chances of repeating LYs results? Signing JD Martinez as a DH? Chris Taylor’s ’22? JASON HEYWARD?? BUT, before we start chucking bets around, below, you can see 2 things on the NL West…the Dodgers Under has big juice, while simultaneously, most of their NL West mates have juice on their Over. In other words, folks seem very hip to this sitch.
It was largely assumed last year the CWS would ultimately control a division loaded with crappy franchises. Like LA this year, Chicago had flaws in ’22, but they were subtle enough to miss, or easily ignored given the accepted weakness of their division. The NL West is not giving us a similar narrative gift this Spring Training. The potential Dodger issues are relatively glaring, and teams like the Padres, Giants and D-backs are seen as capable of exploiting them. Indeed, the Dodgers Under may get action from us, but as a loose rule, its really difficult to like “loud” bets, and this is about as loud as these type of bets get. At any rate, we will see how the next few weeks shake-out. Ideally we will land on some plays that are quietly sitting in a corner with their head down. Here are where things stand…heavy juice noted.
ARIZ : 74.5 (O -150)
ATL : 95.5
BALT : 76.5 (O -150)
BOS : 77.5 (O -140)
CHC : 77.5 (O -140)
CWS : 83.5 (U -160)
CIN : 65.5
CLE : 86.5
COL : 65.5
DET : 69.5
HOU : 96.5
KC : 69.5
LAA : 81.5
LAD : 97.5 (U -145)
MIA : 75.5
MIL : 85.5
MINN : 83.5
NYM : 94.5
NYY : 94.5
OAK : 59.5
PHI : 89.5 (U -140)
PITT : 66.5
SD : 93.5 (O -140)
SEA : 87.5
SFG : 80.5 (O -140)
StL : 88.5
TB : 88.5
TEX : 82.5
TOR : 92.5
WAS : 59.5
Super Bowl LVII Props and Pick
Anytime TD: Hurts -130, Scott +450, Kelce -150, Pacheco +125
First TD: Miles Sanders +850, Goedert +1000, Skyy Moore +3500; Kadarius Toney +1500
Rec Yards: Pacheco OVER 18.5 -114, Goedert OVER 51.5 -114
Receptions: Pacheco OVER 3 +120
Mahomes: Over Pass Att 39.5 -121
Hurts: Rush Attempts OVER 11 -130
First Offensive Play Of Game Is A Pass – Yes +115
Result of First Coaches Challenge – Play Stands +105
The OCHOCINCO SPECIAL: Total Punts Over 6.5 -114
Pick:
Chiefs +1.5
This is a tough game to call; I choose the better QB over the better overall team but this is Philly’s first test in a long time as they’ve had an easy schedule this year. There maybe a “will game’s result be less that 6 points? -120” which I might just take instead. Can see Mahomes winning on a last second drive, also taking last score for KC at FG +420.
UFC BONUS: Alexander Volkanovski +295
NFL Title Game Sunday
Picks I actually play in BOLD
PHI -3 (EVEN)
Second time this year we get a hedge play with an EVEN juice line…very blessed. We had SF +175 to win the NFC before the playoff so we book profit either way. I do think the Eagles win as I just can’t see a 7th round rookie going into Philly amongst those animals in the stands and a pretty good team and getting the W. These teams are fairly well matched with the only obvious advantages at QB and CB, which may prove the difference. Props I have: Christian McCaffrey OVER receptions 4.5 -106, Dallas Goedert OVER receptions -117, Jalen Hurts AT LEAST 2 RUSH TDs +450, and Brock Purdy OVER INTO 0.5 -170.
CIN +2
The Bengals are just the more complete team. And last week showed you can have OL issues, but if your perimeter and HBs are healthy you can dev a scheme, as long as you have a quick accurate gun at QB, to mask that and even success in the running game as Cincy did because the Bills were having such a hard time defending the back end. Props: Joe Mixon OVER receptions 3.5 +127, Total FGs OVER 3.5 +110, Travis Kelce ANYTIME TD -143, and Andy Reid Timeouts Set on Fire 1.5 -420.
TEASER: CIN +2 and PHI/SF OVER 45 +110
DFS:
NHL BONUS: BOS ML +113
NFL Divisional Sunday
0-2 yesterday, 3-4 so far this playoffs. Back on the wagon, actual bets in BOLD:
Buffalo -5.5
Hardest game to pick this weekend; I’d lean more on Bengals if they weren’t missing 3 OLs. I am taking CIN 1H +3.5 as I do think Burrow, and Josh Allen’s penchant for INTs, keep it close. For props, going Josh Allen Rushing Yards OVER 50.5 -114 and James Cook First TD +1600.
SF -3.5
Pounding and doubling down on San Fran. Also taking OVER 46 as the model I use has this game at 51.5 and it probably should be 48. Taking Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -103, Ezekiel Elliott Carries OVER 10.5 -115, and Mike McCarthy Timeouts Set on Fire OVER 1.5 -420 (kidding but…if this is an actual bet I’d take it).
NFL Divisional Saturday
Anything I bet is in BOLD; 3-2 so far this playoffs
Kansas City -9.5 -110
Trevor’s Lawrence’s turnover-itis comes back to bite him in the ass because he isn’t playing a team called the “Chargers”. I also like Travis Kelce First to Score +500, Jerick McKinnon OVER receptions +112, and receiving yards OVER 36.5 -126, and Trevor Lawrence At least 2 INT +300.
NY Giants +8
How about Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones last week! The most impressive performance and playcalling of the weekend, even better than the 49ers’ second half (which was also pretty good). It seems like the majority of the time in the modern era when teams’ play for a 3rd time, it’s usually a close ballgame. I see the Eagles winning but the Giants’ keeping it close; if the Giants had 1 or more WRs I would like their chances better as they did have a lot of drops last week. Maybe Kenny Golladay (if he’s even active) has a J.D. Drew moment and has the game of his life despite the fact he is the worst FA signing in NY sports history. We get to bet Daniel Jones rushing yards OVER again 48.5 -108; surprised it took the books this long to have this over 40 yards as Daniel Jones is 12-5-1 vs the rushing yards OVER this year. I also like total FG OVER 3.5 +130.
NHL Bonus: EDM at VAN UNDER 7 -104
NFL Wild Card Sunday + Monday
2-0 so far thanks to the Chargers doing Chargery things. Bets placed in BOLD
Buffalo -13.5 (-115)
Miami limped into the playoffs thanks to Buffalo beating a milquetoast Patriots team. They will have a rookie starter who is more of a runner if anything vs a pretty fast Bills front 7. Bills should have an easy time here and will probably get a nice bump as Damar Hamlin maybe at today’s game.
Minnesota -3 +100
Most people went into the playoffs thinking, “Man, I can’t wait to bet against this overrated Vikings team and Kirk Cousins!”. Too bad their first game is against the Giants, who they beat 24-21 back in November in OT despite blowing a 4th quarter lead. The Giants had a good year but mostly took advantage of a weak schedule as well as Daniel Jones finally having a professional coach in Brian Daboll…but this VIkings team has more talent than this Giants team overall… I’d wait until next week for the annual Vikings’ bed shitting. This might be the last time of year I get to bet the Daniel Jones Rushing OVER prop (40.5 -118); it was 11-5-1 during the year.
Baltimore +8.5 -112
The backend of a “back-to-back” game as these teams played in the same place last week. I think Baltimore coaching, guile, the Lamar Jackson drama, and the division aspect of this matchup will keep things close despite backup QBs… however Baltimore’s failure in offense will hurt them in the 4th quarter, where Joe Burrow shines so I do like Bengals to win the game. For props, I like Total Field Goals OVER 3.5 +135 as we have two pretty awesome kickers in this game.
Tampa Bay +2.5 -107
I am actually taking the Tampa Bay ML on this game at +125. Dallas has more talent than this average Tampa team. They SHOULD win… but we all know what is going to happen. They will grab an early lead when this Tampa offense has their usual crappy start and then as we go into the late 3rd and 4th quarter, Dallas will start nitting it up on offense while Mike McCarthy is going to waste timeouts challenging a 2 yard catch on 2nd down while staring at the scoreboard as he ponders what type of nachos he is going to have later. Brady gets the ball back with 2 min and we all know the rest as that is how Tampa has stolen many games this year. For props, I like: Mike Evans ANYTIME TD +200; Dak Prescott OVER INT 0.5 -167; Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards OVER 45.5 -114 and OVER receptions 4.5 +100.
TEASER 6.5 +125: BUF -13.5, CIN -8, TB +2.5
NFL Wild Card Saturday
Play the fun game every year where we try to go undefeated vs the spread. Any thing I actually bet will be in BOLD
San Francisco -9.5 (-110)
Taking the 49ers….like everyone else which scares me. But they are the most balanced team going into the playoffs, the rookie QB has come in and played better than Jimmy G and even Lance, and they play a Seattle team who limped into the playoffs thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ annual Lambeau bed shitting. For props, taking Christian McCaffrey receptions OVER 4.5 +100, and Geno Smith INT OVER 0.5 -164. I am also taking 49ers to win the NFC at +175, as I figure they should make it at least to the NFC title game again providing a hedge opportunity.
Jacksonville +2.5
This is the toughest game to bet all weekend. Both young QBs in Herbert and Lawrence in their first playoff starts. Taking Jacksonville because these teams are close in talent but I think the Chargers coach is a moron and they will probably do Chargery things. I do like Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 -114.
