MLB Play
Broke even last night, neither Rays or O’s hit for shit for Baltimore got the big bop.
My boy Bassitt, see what he can do.
Oakland +121 @ 12
Bank : -55.52
ZOMG a winner
Not so much a winner, but a bet against a loser. Whenever possible over the next week or so the play is against Baltimore. Their whole team is struggling to hit at the moment, Trumbo and Machado most importantly. We will also be banking on the consistent quality of Nick Tropeano over the human coin flip that is Chris Young.
PLAYS
RAYS -129 @ 16
ANGELS -117 @ 16
BANK : -53.20
MLB Play(s)
I tell you, it’s super easy to figure out your bank when you only lose bets. None of that fancy parlay calculator business needed around here. Just a good ol’ fashioned subtraction button, please and thank you. Side note, the ML for the Rays tonight is about -125, but there run line is like (-1.5 +170). I could be wrong but this appears way out of whack. For comparison, some similar MLs with their run line
PIT (-128) (-1.5 +132)
CWS (-115) (-1.5 +142)
NYY (-119) (-1.5 +138)
KC (-122) (-1.5 +134)
It would seem that Vegas is saying, Tampa may win tonight, in fact they probably will, but there is no way in Hell they are winning by more than a run. I could be misreading things but I think thats right.
Rays -125 @ 16
BANK : -$66
MLB Plays
We lose on Friday when Brian McCann hits one of probably 3 home runs he will hit this year off a lefty. Plenty more action where that came from. All plays @ 18. Good luck out there.
UFC 197
PARLAY @ -116:
Jon Jones -600
Mighty Mouse -400
Danny Roberts -400
Gennady Golovkin -10000 (Boxing)
Individual plays:
Danny Roberts -400
Dominique Steele looked like absolute dogshit yesterday at the weigh-ins and he immediately took off all his clothes to try as best as possible to make the 170 weight (he came in at 171 and made weight). It is usually very hard to come back from dehydration like that at welterweight and higher.
Rafael Natal +245
It’s not that I don’t think he’s an underdog to Whittaker, he is…..Whittaker is one of the better prospects in the UFC today. I just think the math on the line is wrong as Natal is a very dangerous opponent with excellent jiu jitsu. This should be at +150 or somewhere around there.
If you are thinking about taking OSP tonight, make sure you take the “inside distance” and “win in the 1st round” props. The only way he has a chance to win is in the 1st round as Jon could have some early ring rust and OSP tends to gas out after the first round as he throws everything with power (he does has several first round KOs for this reason). I think Jones wins in Round 2 or 3 by ground and pound.
NBA BONUS:
TOR @ IND Under 194
NBA Unders are hitting at a 65% clip so far this postseason.
Miami +2.5
Heat are just a bad matchup for Charlotte.
MLB Play
Just getting my feet wet. We will start a new bank @ 0 and see how we do.
Rays -108 @ 12
Bank : $0
Celtics Playoffs
The Celtics have made it into the East as a 5th seed. I would of preferred 3/6, so they avoid the Cavs in the second round…..but I think they eventually face them anyways as they are the two top teams in the East. Toronto is talented but soft defensively, and get a tough draw in the 1st round vs Indiana. Miami is wildly erratic (as evident by blowing a 26 point lead in the 2nd half to the Celtics in the season finale and only scoring 5 fucking points in the 3rd quarter).
I am taking the Celtics series price at +140 vs the Hawks in the 1st Round. The Hawks have no real home field advantage as I am sure half of their home games will be filled with Celtics fans (especially on the weekend games). The Hawks also have this going against them:
https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/721122472762839040
I am a big believer of the referees being influenced by stuff like this, and add the conspiratory angle that the NBA would want a Boston vs Cleveland 2nd round for the ratings, I think the Celtics have many edges here.
I am also taking a small flyer on Celtics to win the East at +1600, and the Celtics/Warriors final at +3300. The Cavs are the favorite to win the East (-260), but I think the Celtics are the other team to come out, if anyone else does.
UFC BONUS:
Dodson v Gamburyan Fight Goes the Distance +100
Court McGee +140
Evans vs Teixeira Over Rounds 3.5 -140
UFC Croatia
Rothwell +105
Junior Dos Santos should have retired 2 fights ago, and for Rothwell, this is a big fight for him today. He’s on a “last gasp” effort in a long career to gain a shot for a title. He’s has finishes in his last 4 fights.
NBA BONUS:
San Antonio -5.5
Pacquiao vs Bradley 3
Did any of you know that tonight is Manny Pacquiao’s last fight? Me neither.
Should be a boring fight vs Tim Bradley, and I don’t expect anything too crazy between these two. Manny’s lost his punching power (*sneeze sneeze*) and he’s coming off losing all his sponsors because he was caught saying he hates gays in an interview. Tim Bradley’s last 10 out of 11 fights went to a decision, and the last guy he just TKO’d, Brandon Rios, is one of those guys who should have retired 5 fights ago. Both of the previous fights with these two, went to decision.
Bet this yawn fest and pay rent tomorrow:
Pacquiao vs Bradley FIGHT GOES TO DECISION -350
