NFL Week 6
Miami +8.5
This is down to +8 now. Both Lou and Cousin Sal have this as one of their locks of the week. I even wanted to tease Pittsburgh (and so does everybody in America)….but this is always the type of game where they puke on themselves, especially on the road. Pittsburgh is 2-10 vs the number he last 12 times they have been a 7+ point favorite on the road; and they’ve even lost some of those games, so the ML (+360) is even in play here IMO. And you know the Steelers are going to be partying on South Beach once they land in Miami, could be a hangover effect there. The majority of the public is on Pittsburgh. Miami is atrocious in many areas, but I think they’ll at least be able to throw the ball against a shitty Steeler secondary and keep it close at home.
Kansas City +1
This is now at -1 KC. The Chiefs travel to Oakland after getting the shit kicked out of them in Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago. They are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid is 15-2 in his career coming off the bye week. Oakland maybe without Latavius Murray, and KC gets back Jamaal Charles (he played last week, but was on a pitch count). He’ll actually get some more touches this week, and I think is a DFS punt vs an Oakland defense who has a hard time stopping the pass. Denver lost last night, and that will give them some extra motivation vs an Oakland team also still in the AFC West hunt, but for some reason has struggled at home (actually, it isn’t a mystery: the Oakland Coliseum is a dump).
Saints vs Panthers Over 53
Cam Newton is probably not playing, but I don’t give a shit. I think even Derek Anderson can throw 2-3 TDs vs this shitty New Orleans offense, and the Carolina offense gets Jonathan Stewart back, which should be a boost. Carolina’s secondary has been suspect this year, and the Saints can always score a 30 spot at home, especially coming off a bye where they get guys back healthy like WR Willie Snead.
I also noted on the podcast I liked Washington +3 (-130) at home this week as well vs Philly, BUT their star TE and chain mover Jordan Reed is questionable with a concussion. If he doesn’t play, I’ll stay away as the Washington offense is probably cooked vs a surprisingly good Philly defense.
TEASER (+140):
NE -9
KC +1
SEA -6.5
NHL BONUS:
Chicago Blackhawks +115 ML
MLB BONUS:
Toronto at Cleveland Over 7.5 -105
Thursday Night Football 10.13
Chargers +3.5 (-115)
Good note here from oddssharks’ Jon Campbell:
If you picked all five Thursday Night games correctly this season, taking the underdogs straight up while laying the points with the faves, you’d be up $517.97 on $100 bets rather than $454.55 if you were to simply play the spread. It’s a significant difference.
The San Diego Chargers are 3-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. If you like the Chargers, the payout is +150 on the moneyline rather than the standard -110 if you take the field goal
Lou and I like the Chargers tonight as teams this year who are 2 point to 3.5 point underdogs have covered nearly 60% of the time this year.
I’ll have a look at the ML later and I might put that in a parlay with the Dodgers +140. Nationals’ Manager Dusty Baker has lost his last 9 postseason “must win” games.
NHL Opens Tonight
Totally forgot to ask Lou on the podcast about NHL leans.
Here are mine:
Winnipeg to NOT make the playoffs -115
Florida Panthers Over Points 97.5 -105
Edmonton Oilers Under Season Points 87.5 (-105)
Top goal scorer: Tyler Seguin +1800
For tonight:
Chicago vs St Louis Under 5 (+110)
Miracle Covers Podcast #2: MLB Playoffs, NFL Season Props, and NFL Week 6 Lines
Lou and I are back with another podcast! We discuss the MLB Playoffs, some NFL Season props like Division/Conference winners and the MVP race, and we talk about who we like in next weeks’ games.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miraclecoverscom-mlb-playoffs-and-nfl-week-6
MLB Monday
MLB:
Giants vs Cubs Under 6 (-110)
CFL BONUS:
Montreal vs Saskatchewan Over 52 (-105)
Podcast #2 coming soon; check out this parlay!
Parlay of the Week: $95 12-Leg Parlay nets $284,905 pic.twitter.com/1gF7ve9BNM
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) October 10, 2016
MLB, NCAA, and a UFC Parlay
MLB:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals Over 7.5 +105
3-1 so far this 2016 playoff.
NCAA
Miss St v Auburn Under 54.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs NC State Under 56
UFC PARLAY:
Albert Tumenov (-240) and Michael Bisping (-250) at +101
NFL Week 5 Leans
OK, onto trying to predict and profit off of some more shitty NFL football this weekend:
Minnesota -7 (+105)
This has now moved to -110. Texans go into Minnesota reeling on defense after losing JJ Watt for the year, and their offense has been inconsistent at best, especially on the road. While Minnesota doesn’t have the best *talent* on defense, it’s still pretty damn good, and they have the best coach “in form” in Mike Zimmer, while being are relatively healthy. I’d rather have 11 good players, in form and healthy, as supposed to 11 Hall of Famers who are banged up…when it comes to a defensive unit. Also, Sam Bradford has played damn good football since getting traded (for what I still think is too many draft picks) to the Vikings, and at +1600 at MVP, it’s actually not a bad play. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence, but it’s definitely in play because the Vikings are probably the #1 seed in the NFC, if we project it out from today. It’s like the Vikings, who lost all pro players at numerous positions, are like the ultimate “Ewing Theory” team. Their only real weakness is the kicker. I should of taken them 10-to-1 to win the NFL when I had the chance in the preseason.
As a last side note: Mike Zimmer vs the spread in the last two years: 28-5. And the Vikings, and their games, are one of the lowest volume bets in all of football.
Buffalo at LA Rams Under 40 (-105)
This projects to be a rock fight. The LA Rams last home game ended 9-6. They have a top 3 defense, and the Bills (coming off a shutout of the Brady-less Pats, 16-0) have a top 10 defense. Both offenses can run the ball, but have a hard time throwing it because, well, it’s the fucking Bills and the fucking Rams. Neither of these teams haven’t thrown the ball since Jim Kelly and Kurt Warner left their respective teams. Additionally, in the Rams’ new stadium at the “old as balls” LA Coliseum, is shaped like a bowl instead of a cascade. This is significant because when it’s hot in LA (who has had a hotter than usual summer and fall), there’s no shade for fans (sounds like a great time!) or players alike. 88 degree weather on 1pm on Sunday will create fatigue, which creates fail. Hopefully it also doesn’t result in defensive and special teams fail touchdowns.
Washington +4 (-115)
The Washington football team goes into Baltimore this week for a darby. Someone wins this game by a field goal. I don’t know who, and I don’t care, because I will probably watch less than 5 minutes of these shitty, flawed teams playing. I’m making bets out of spite; that’s how disgruntled I am with the NFL this year.
TEASER:
PIT -7.5
DAL +2
MIN -7
MLB BONUS:
Red Sox @ Cleveland Over 7 (-120)
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
MLB Playoffs Phase 2
Now that the Wild Card is passed us, here are some of my preliminary thoughts for MLB Series prices and a lean for tomorrow.
Divisional Series prices @LVSuperBook
Red Sox -150
Indians +130Jays EVEN
Rangers -120Dodgers -165
Nats +145Giants +240
Cubs -280— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 6, 2016
Toronto vs Texas Goes to 5 Games +130
This is going to be a really fun series. During last year’s epic ALDS tilt: Toronto fans threw beer at a baby, Jose Batista had the best bat flip after a HR in history, and there were a number of bench clearing moments during in what I think is the best Bottom of the 7th in the history of baseball. This year had the sports fight of the year between Jose Batista and Rougned Odor. This thing has to go 5; the baseball gods dictate it.
Chicago Cubs -260
Thanks to SF winning the NL WIld Card play-in last night, we now start hedging our SF Giants to win the NL at +650 (now at +300). The Giants have slightly better pitching than the Cubs, the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing (+240; +115 to win the NL). I think the Cubs take this in 4 because Bumgarner, the best pitcher in the series, is slated to pitch only one game (unless it goes 5) and the Giants lineup stinks. This price settles in around -260 online, while -280 live as the Cub money pours in from Chicago fans who love to chase history while making a profit. Home field, a decent bullpen/manager, and a great lineup should see the Cubs through to the NLCS #reversejinx
And a lean for tomorrow:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
It’s Scherzer vs Kershaw, but both lineups are pretty good, the bullpens pretty “meh”, and I am more betting that Clayton Kershaw pukes all over himself in a playoff game again.
MLB 2016 Postseason early leans
Tor vs BAL Under 8.5 (-115)
NYM vs SF Under 6 (-115)
SF Giants to win NL +650
And for those of you curious (and you know who you are), a Red Sox vs Cubs WOrld Series parlay is +600. I put a fiver down for shits and giggles, but the only reason I didn’t seriously take it is because one team has a shoddy closer and the other has a shoddy history.
NFL Week 4
Put up a big ole donut last week; glad I got it out of the way! There are usually 1-2 weeks a year where one’s bets get cleaned out like losing chips on a roulette table. But I am confident that we can get back on track this week.
It really has been “bizarro year” so far. NFL teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 7-3 ATS this season, Rookie QBs have a W-L of 6-1 and are 7-0 ATS, and if you bet the ML underdog on every game so far this year, you’d be up 10.5 units!!!1111 Usually, if that ratio is at around -10% to -20%, that means it’s a good year for underdogs…nevermind an ROI of +70% or more!
Cleveland +9 (-120)
The Browns are in Washington this week and this line has cratered to around -7 or -7.5. WR Tyrelle Pryor’s play for the Browns has been one of the few bright spots for the team. They lost last week’s game in OT thanks to 3 missed FGs due to a backup kicker; the regular starter got hurt on Friday during a WARM UP. How in the hell does one injure himself in a warm up? This being said, Cody Parker played well last week and the Washington Football Team is flaky in terms of consistent performance during games, never mind week to week. I don’t know how one could be a fan of either of these teams without having a heart attack.
New York Jets +3 (-130)
The juice is high here, but lots to like about the Jets this week, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 6 INTs last week (we have some candidates for now what a 6 INT game is now called: I like the “The Dirty Fitz”, but reader, Bills fan, and fellow contributor Nick also said that the “Fitz 6” is also the more stronger choice). Upside? The Jets offense and Fitz can’t play any worse than that. Russell Wilson is questionable with a knee sprain and didn’t finish the game last week; I drafted him in the 3rd round in one of my leagues and I’ve benched the guy for 2 straight games. Thomas Rawls is out with injury at RB, so the Seahawks had to sign 1st Round bust C.J. Spiller off the street (I also had to pick him up in the same league; I hate running bad in fantasy). The OL has been terrible for Seattle and the Jets have a top 3 defensive line. The game is at 1pm, and West Coast teams due tend to struggle with that (I should of listened to Cousin Sal last week RE: BUF v ARI). I expect a low scoring game, and might throw the Jets in a teaser with the under (40) on a cold, and maybe rainy, day in New Jersey.
Tampa Bay -3.5 (-115)
Trevor Siemian has looked OK so far as QB for the Broncos, leading his team off to a 3-0 start. The under I have at 9 is in jeopardy, but at some point you’d have to think a market correction occurs with this team. While he has good command of the offense, he’s also wildly inconsistent with his accuracy at times; the Bengals last week dropped several interceptions. Denver’s defense has not been as good against the run as they were last year. The Broncos are getting 88% of the money on the road here against a Tampa team that has shown it can throw the ball down the field and keep games close despite lack of depth at RB and in the secondary.
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Over 49 (-110)
This game is in London; the poor UK fans. That being said, the fail from both of these teams should provide short fields and easy scores for both teams. The over has hit 70% of the time in the London games…this could be due to the teams in the game, but also the fact I think the long flight and trip creates dead legs which cuts into the cardio of the defenders as the game goes along.
TEASER (+140):
IND/JAX Over 49
HOU -5
ARI -7
CFL BONUS:
Ottawa Redblacks +5.5 (-110)
