CFL Friday
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4 -110
TEASER: CAL -6 + WPG +4
Again, thanks to buffaloholdem on the leans!
Here’s a great way to go into the weekend: LFL highlights!
https://twitter.com/ochocinco/status/764121647188217856
EPL BONUS:
Swansea v Burnley Under 2 (+110)
Olympics Soccer Sunday Breakfast: Over Easy
True to form:
I think the play in the Men Soccer tournament will be : over goals. The defense is atrocious
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) August 5, 2016
I am taking a ton of overs in the soccer matches today. A few reasons why the overs could be a theme this soccer tournament:
a) Most of these squads are U23 (each team has 3 exceptions, usually pro players who are older). They don’t play often and are usually very unorganized.
b) Mismatches. The Olympics soccer pool is a bit more diverse than the pro tournaments, with teams like Fiji and South Africa getting in. This usually creates some really lopsided scores, like South Korea hanging up 8 goals, 7 in the second half, on that Fiji team. In case your wondering, Fiji/MExico’s O/U today is 7, with the Over having -185 juice. That’s the highest juice I have ever seen for an over in a soccer match.
c) Brazil. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil was all about goals in the group stages. The stadiums are in diverse weather areas so and while Brazil is technically in its fall/winter season, since it is near the wequator some areas maintain really damp and hot conditions. This leads to fatigue, which opens up play.
Here are the plays for today:
Japan/Colombia Over 3 (+105)
Sweden/Nigeria Over 3 (EVEN)
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (-140)
Brazil/Iraq Over 3 (EVEN)
4 team parlay @ +400:
Mexico -10000
Brazil -500
Japan/Colombia Over 3
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (EVEN)
Olympic Bonus:
Dana Vollmer Olympics 100m Butterfly Women – Winner +2000
UFC 200
UFC 200 is here…what a wacky week for MMA, especially considering Jon Jones got popped for PEDs and the DC fight is now him vs Anderson Silva.
Here are some of my UFC 200 Leans:
Thiago Santos +215
He’s won 4 in a row, and it a late replacement for his opponent Mousasi, who said “he preferred a bigger name”, so could be taking him lightly here.
T.J. Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao Goes the Distance -200
They have fought before, and that one went the distance back in 2013. This is an important fight for both guys as TJ is coming off a loss and Assuncao is coming off an injury. Both have really good movement and striking defense so I think it will be a solid 3 round war on the feet.
Kelvin Gastelum -115
Johnny Hendricks missed weight AGAIN, will forfeit 20% of his purse, and on the scales looked like how I feel with I have pocket Kings and an Ace hits the flop. This will probably be his last fight at 170. Kelvin is a solid wrestler and a blackbelt jiujitsu maven from 10th planet, and I see him winning by either submission or decision.
Frankie Edgar -130, Edgar by 5 Round decision +215, and Fight Goes the Distance -135
The Brazilian fighters have had a tough go of it in the USADA era, and some have speculated that is due to the fact they can’t take those special supplements anymore. Aldo is coming off a 13 second KO to COnor McGregor and while he beat Edgar in the first fight, I think Frankie has been on such a hot streak and wants the fight in MSG so bad vs Conor for the 145 belt that he pulls out a decision.
Other thoughts: I do like Tate at -260, but not going to take it as I would want that price a little lower before firing. If you are thinking about taking the underdog Nunes, take the first round prop at +600, as Nunes is the kind of fighter who comes out guns a blazing, but then her cardio fades after the adrenaline dump comes about……..Brock Lesnar at +175 is tempting, even if he hasn’t fought in over 4 years. But he looked to be in “beach body” shape at the weigh ins, so cardio is a concern and you don’t want you leave your head dangling for super striker Mark Hunt……make sure you watch the Cat Zingano vs Julianna Pena fight, it will be awesome but it’s also completely unbettable. You are better off taking the Cleveland Gladiators +14.5 in Arena Football tonight.
Parlay at +325:
Kelvin Gastelum-115, Daniel Cormier -400, Jim Miller -275, Cain Velasquez -300
Cymru Am Byth
Wales Pick (+170)
Under 2 (EVEN)
First of all, I am not drunk at 9am in regards to typing the title of this post; that language is Welsh, and it stands for “Long Live Wales”. This guy should get an Emmy for pronouncing this Welsh city name below:
I think today’s Wales v Portugal game will be a rock fight. Portugal hasn’t scored a goal in regular time this whole tourney, and Wales will be missing one of their key offensive players in Aaron Ramsey due to suspension. Portugal has a habit of eventually choking in these things, and I could see Bale scoring and Wales taking home a 1-0 victory (Bale to score and Wales to win is at +400). The draw at +220 is also not a bad play.
UFC 200 leans coming later in the week.
If you need something to fire you up for the week, watch this pep talk given by the coach of the New England Liberty of the LFL league (I didn’t know that NE had a lingerie football team!). He’s pissed his team is getting his ass kicked 70-7 in the 4th.
I need this guy as a life coach:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuP9PfkmzVU
CFL BONUS:
Redblacks PK -105
Cold as Ice-land
Iceland +1 (+120)
I think Iceland keep it close today; France has had issues in these games as they still haven’t found their formation or side yet. They are the more talented side, I expect Iceland to pack it in like a freezer. They’ve gotten this far with the less possession of any team in the field (35%), so they are comfortable there, and I think they can maybe nip a goal off of a French mistake via a counter or a throw in.
Also leaning Wales (+300) and the draw (+200) vs Portugal next week. They won’t have Aaron Ramsey, which sucks for them (I agree with Taylor Twellman; the UEFA needs to make the card system more lax with the extra game this year)….but Portugal hasn’t even won a game in regular time this Euro!
Updated look at #Euro2016 moneyline results: pic.twitter.com/9VHoW4wZM2
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) July 3, 2016
Here are some gambling stats so far for the Euro; we still have Germany alive to win it all (+450) after yesterday’s comical penalty kick extravaganza vs Italy.
Simone Zaza’s penalty almost turned into a dance party! (via @R9Rai) https://t.co/yYkfj9MEX9 https://t.co/UZhi2TMFVd
— SB Nation (@SBNation) July 3, 2016
A Line of Interest
I am not touching the game, but an interesting line tonight from baseball.
Texas Rangers (+177) vs NYY (-193)
I understand Tanaka is a better pitcher than Nick Martinez. I understand the Yankees are playing at home. What I do NOT understand is how this line is so high. America doesn’t understand either…
| 06/29/16 | Make Pick | 963 | Texas | 8½o-115 | 1.5(-120) | 170 | o 9.0 (-120) | 3256 | 49% | 63% | 41% | |
| 7:05PM | 964 | New York Yankees | -200/+170 | -1.5(100) | -195 | u 9.0 (100) | 51% | 37% | 59% |
The 63% refers to people betting the Rangers ML. And I dont want to hear, “people are betting value.” Garbage, people are not bright. A line of interest indeed.
***UPDATE***
Now THAT is a bad beat for America. Vegas knows! The fix is in!
CFL and Euro 2016 Leans
Posting my Euro 2016 leans for Saturday as I won’t be able to do them tomorrow as I will be at Foxwoods for the $400 PPC Multiflight NLHE tournament.
Wales -105
Wales drew Northern Ireland, so this will be a contested darby of sorts but N.Ireland is the lowest ranked team in the tournament and only scored 2 goals vs a Ukrainian side with a swiss cheese defense. They will pack it in and make it tough on the Dragons, but I expect Wales to pull it out (that’s what she said) in the end. I also like the 1-0 exacta, with Bale scoring the goal (I am kicking myself at not taking him as Golden Goal scorer at 18-to-1. It’s basically down to him and Spain’s Morata).
Croatia +165 and Over 2 (-105)
Croatia is not the most fit, but man have they looked impressive in the final third even with their bench guys. Just a well run, clinical operation and a dark horse pick to win it all, especially if Modric can get back to being somewhat fit. Their opponent, Portugal, has more individual talent, but in each of their games they have gone asleep at the wheel defensively, as well as commit dumb turnovers and fouls in their own end. I am surprised the Over is only at 2 with low juice; I’d say it should be 2.5 with higher juice so we are getting value here. This should be a fun, open game.
CFL:
Winnipeg -2 (-110)
First of all, h/t to buffaloholdem over at Twitter for his CFL thoughts. It’s become quite a place to find lots of value. Who knew 3 down football was so profitable!
https://twitter.com/buffaloholdem/status/745966812509118465
There’s DFS CFL now as well (and yes, rouges *do* count) so he’s a good source if you need any tips before places down your bets.
Here’s another nugget of CFL wisdom for the year:
#CFL teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 414-355 ATS (53.8%) since 2005. (h/t @Bet_Labs)
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) June 22, 2016
NBA Finals Game 7
Warriors -5
Apparently, the Warriors’ Steph Curry’s wife, Ayesha Curry, also agreed with my reasoning on why I took the Cavs in Game 6: the NBA is Riggtastic!
Although, I do see Game 7 being on the “up and up” tonight….and if anything, the Warriors will be the ones getting the calls and home cooking, especially thanks to Steve Kerr pulling a Phil Jackson, “Here’s this blank check, I am going to criticize the officials in the post game presser” move to sway them. A few other reasons I like the Warriors: granted they have had some injury issues, but they have been the best and most consistent team all year and need to win tonight to place themselves in NBA history as one of the greatest all time teams. There is pressure on them, but also Cleveland, since that town hasn’t had a sports team win a title since World War II. I expect Curry and Thompson to play balls out tonight, and the Cavs to not shoot as well as they have the last two games over expectation, especially due to the one week turnaround of flying back and forth to Oakland. That can take a lot from a road team. I think LeBron will have to score 40+ for the Cavs to have a shot tonight; he’s been excellent these last two games but at some point the rubber you’d think hits the road. The Bogut injury for the Warriors is the one “bear” case I have against them (you want big men in the middle of the paint to clog LeBron’s heavy drives; Kendrick Perkins was so key to this when he was with the Celtics vs LeBron’s Cavs from 2008-2011). Andre Iguodala is their best defender for LeBron and is banged up, but is expected to play tonight.
The Warriors are at home and home teams are 15-3 in NBA Finals’ Game 7s. So we got that in our favor as well. Well that, and Cleveland choking in a big spot, because that is what LeBron does and that is what that city does (minus UFC Heavywieght Champ Stipe Miocic).
EURO BONUS:
Swiss vs France Under 2
The Swiss just need a result today to get in. I expect France to play their bench and this to be a milquetoast game, probably ending 1-0.
NBA Finals Game 6
Cavs -2
I think the Cavs pull it out at home tonight and force a Game 7 (which I also think they lose). First, I always like taking Game 6 teams when they are at home and down 3-2 and need a win to force a Game 7 (hockey is the exception; that sports is just different). Although it would be classic Cleveland to lose a title on their home floor, you know the NBA is going to pull out all of the stops, referee wise, to try and make a Game 7 possible. Also, I can see Irving/LeBron hitting 21 on the blackjack table again and shooting the ball well one more time before variance, and the back-and-forth road trip from Cleveland to Oakland, catches up to them.
EURO BONUS:
WALES ML +550 and DRAW v ENG +285
These are both hedges as I have England, Wales as the group order. If Wales get a result today that probably gets flipped so we can take the middle.
Northern Ireland/Ukraine Under 2.5 (-110)
EURO 2016 Preview
Winner:
Germany +450
Germany’s talent is the best across the board, and they are relatively fit. They are coming off the World Cup win in Brazil and this tournament is a start of the last generation of players from that team like Mueller, Neuer, etc.
Belgium +900
Belgium was the #1 ranked team in FIFA at one point, and they also have a ton of young and up and coming talent that will be a force. There only weakness to me is at the wingbacks position. They are strong every where else and at +900 for a top 5 team in the world, it’s good value IMO.
Single bets:
Wales Points Over 3.5 (-105)
Wales was impressive in the qualifying round, and Bale was the second best player during those games (behind Poland’s Lewandowski). They also drew a good group and have winnable games versus Russia and Slovakia.
Group B Prop – 1. England 2. Wales +350
I think they both get out of their group in this order. This could be England’s year (+800 to win it all)to finally make a push with all of the exciting young talent they have. Their manager Roy Hodgson, who is known as conservative, is playing a 4-3-3…even he knows he has good talent this year. Also good news for England: the group stage does not have penalty shootouts.
Group E Winner: Belgium -105
Their group: Italy (who is in a turnover year), Ireland (I love the lads, but they have looked like shit in the friendlies leading up to EURO2016. Roy Keane wanted to kill the players after losing in a friendly to Belarus.), and Sweden (who is the wild card in this group; it all depends if Zlatan can turn on the throwback beast mode).
Group C Prop: 1. Germany 2. Poland +135
Germany to Reach the Final +175
My final four: Germany, England, Belgium, and Poland.
Top Goalscorer – Robert Lewandowski +1400
Poland was the best “in form” team during its qualifiers. Lewandowski averaged a goal a game during those prelims (the only other player to do so was Bale).
Lou’s plays:
Adding these as Lou just had a kid and hasn’t had time to post. I’m also taking on of his leans on Italy as well:
Italy to NOT make it out of the Group Stage +400
Austria 40-1 to win it all
