Election 2016 PredictIt Thoughts
The election season is almost finally over (and thank god). A lot of folks ask me if I vote in elections; I don’t. I prefer to bet on them, that way when the result that I desire actually wins, I also actually benefit from it.
There are quite often some free cinch bets in politics as well; Lou once made money taking the side of a politician who was running up against a dead guy. Free money galore, although you usually are taking chalk so the juice along side that can get pretty steep. But our broken political system is pretty easy to predict these days, free money opportunities are abound.
So there’s this site that is similiar to InTrade, called PredictIt. PredictIt is a real-money political prediction market, a stock market for politics. As Lou has noted, the juice on this site is higher than the beloved InTrade from 2012, but it still gives us some opportunity to win some free money. The idea is you either pick an outcome (either Y/N, or GOP/DNC for example) and buy a “share” from $0.01 to $0.99 based on the market of other bidding punters. If your result comes in, then PredictIt pays out the rest of the share upwards to a dollar. So say you pick Hillary Clinton to win the Presidential Race at $0.75 a share. If she wins the election, you get paid out $1.00 for a $0.25 profit on each share.
Here are my leans for this election:
Massachusetts to Legalize Marijuana at $0.80
This opened at $0.88, then went down to $0.80 when the polling wasn’t looking so good at the end of last year. This is now at $0.94, and rising as lately the polling has been very strong for the initiative (last one I saw in the Globe was 59% for). Populist candidates and referendums are the story of 2016 politics as we saw in Britain and BREXIT. The only people who are spending money against this in MA are the churches (which no one goes to anymore), police chiefs, old white people in office, and rich old white people who hate life like Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands casino. A lot like when Barack Obama told UK voters they could be put “on the back of the queue” for trade if BREXIT were to happen, I think anytime these governors and establishment people come out against a law like this, it just helps the initiative even more, despite them getting outspent 3 to 1. Everyone I know is voting YES on 4, are for a myriad of reasons, especially the social justice angle. That is why decriminalization passed in 2008 here in the state; I actually made a bet on a spread that it would pass by a 52/48 margin. It passed 60/40, only losing 3 counties. I expect the same thing here, as pro pot is now in the positive for most demos that aren’t left leaning young people. Libertarians and even some social conservatives have now come around on the idea, very much like how gay marriage went from a resounding “NO” in 2004 to now being passed in most of the states.
California to Legalize Marijuana at $0.84
Same ideology here for this bet; this is now at $0.94 as well. Of course the land of Cheech and Chong, Snoop Dogg, and Wiz Khalifa was always a favorite to pass this initiative. The only people really against it are CA’s Mormon community, police and authorities, and prison companies. Not exactly a lot you want to side with on any issue. Also, voter turnout for Hillary Clinton is expected to be high (pun intended) for the state, including Latinos and Tech types who often are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal. This is a big boost for legal pot to pass in CA, and ironically, Hillary Clinton (who is against pot) may have pot to thank for to clinch the state and voter turnout as those who tend ot vote for legal weed tend to lean left, even for a historically bad campaign like hers.
What Will Voter Turnout Be for the Presidential Election?
135,000,000 to 139,999,999 – NO at $0.80
125,000,000 to 129,999,999 – YES at $0.18
Percentage (via a sportsbook) Under 58% -115
In case you haven’t heard, this are the two most unliked candidates in the history of the race. Considering Mitt “Fail” Romney ran in 2012, that is saying something. Voter turnout for the last race was around 44% during the 2014 midterms, and even though this election has had so many media orgs promoting it left and right, I still think the overall voting population is going to sit this one home and a) assume Hillary is going to win or b) refuse to vote for her at all. The demos that plan to sit home: black people, low income people, and people under the age of 45, especially millennials and younger white people. Also, on a sad note, certain states have made it very difficult to vote with strict ID laws, understaffing causing long lines, and even voter suppression. This sadly is part of my lean on the under, so when you ship this bet, do yourself a favor and donate to an organization that goes against those efforts.
Ironically, we could hit the most Latinos to ever vote in an “open” election (meaning no incumbents), ever AND also hit 2000’s low of 50.3%. The last 3 elections barely hit 55%, so I like the under at 0.58% as well.
Will a 3rd Party win a State? at $0.35
I have no idea who Evan McMullin is, but all of the prediction sites give him a better than 30% chance to win his home state of Utah. Libertarian Gary Johnson is a former Governor of New Mexico and is always live to hit that state, he’s also polled well in Alaska and will probably get 4-5% of the vote. In an election where voters are looking for alternative, 3rd party voting will probably see it’s biggest boost since Ralph Nader in 2000 and Ross Perot in 1996.
Overall POTUS Prediciton:
Clinton (-550)
If you wanted to bet on Hillary, the chance to do so at a good price was when she was struggling with Bernie earlier in the year. I think she got down to -140 at one point. Although Bill Simmons has her in a parlay with the Pats to win the AFC East, so that could be a curse of course.
Trump may cover the spread and make it a sweat into Wednesday, but I think Hillary on the low end get 288 electoral votes (I think it will be on the lower end, but I am just rooting for a fun sweat), and her ceiling is around 313 to 319 (depending on if McMullin wins Utah).
Random side props:
Winner of these states in the presidential contest:
FL: Trump
NV: Hillary
NC: Trump
OH: Trump
IA: Trump
CO: Hillary
NH: Hillary
VA: Hillary
PA: Hillary
AZ: Trump
GA: Trump
UT: McMullin
Final Electoral College Score
Clinton: 288
Trump: 243
Other: McMullin 6
Percentage (round to nearest 0.1%) of the national popular vote won by:
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 2%
Winner of the Senate race in each of these states (OK to name party only not candidate):
NH: Republican
NV: Republican
IN: Democrat
MO: Democrat
FL: Republican
NC: Republican
WI: Democrat
PA: Democrat
CO: Democrat
Control of the Senate (includes independents who caucus with and will vote for leadership of that party):
Democratic: 50
Republican: 50
Week 9 NFL
Indy at Green Bay Under 54 (-110)
This started at 53 and is rising. I just think these two teams will fail enough where it won’t be the fantasy football tout fest this O/U makes it out to be. Green Bay’s defense is allowing 20.3 ppg at home. The referee, Tony Corrente, is also favorable to the under: the under has a 77-55 record under his stripes. Usually means he keeps the flag in the pocket, and that helps defenses.
San Diego -4 (-110)
This started at -5.5. The Chargers’ games have been the most exciting all year…..with the only one being an ass whuppin’ they gave to Jacksonville at home in Week 2. They have been great against the number as well. Tennessee is coming off a long week and travels into hot San Diego coming off a win vs the Jaguars. All Marcus Mariota does is take huge dumps on the road; with an average road QB Rating of 63.3. The Titans losing these types of games are why Lou and I refuse to bet on who will win on their crappy division.
TEASER +260:
Kansas City -7.5
Green Bay -7.5
Denver +1
Minnesota -6
UFC BONUS:
Tony Ferguson +120
Parlay @ +250: Alexa Grasso (-550), Marco Polo Reyes (-175), Erik Perez (-210), Enrique Barzola (-550)
NFL Week 8
We have been hot here on the site the last 2 weeks, going perfect again in Week 7! Let’s keep the momentum going and get hot again like Blake Bortles’ completion percentage as he’s trailing by 21 in the 4th quarter.
New Orleans vs Seattle Over 47 (-115)
This is now at 48.5 and climbing, especially now that today it’s been revealed that Seattle SS Kam Chancellor is out again. Seattle gave up big passing plays at home 2 weeks ago to Julio Jones due to miscommunication on the sideline thanks to Chancellor’s backup, causing Richard Sherman to lose his shit on the sideline. Yes, Seattle only scored 6 points last week in a 6-6 tie in Arizona (funny story: I feel asleep during the game Sunday and woke up in a semi-drunken stupor at 2am to see the score and I thought the game was still going on until I saw the “F/OT” next to the score. Embarrassing). But that was a “rock fight” division game that involved two teams (with crappy kickers) who know each other pretty well. The Saints are an out-of-division opponent who has a crappy defense but a fantastic offense, especially at home, and anytime an under is below 50 when they play in the Superdome, you should take it. This should be an up and down game, and super fun to watch.
Minnesota Vikings -4 (-100)
The Vikings are coming off a lackluster performance in Philly last week. Head Coach Mike Zimmer after the game used the “s” word: SOFT. Whenever a locker room hears that from a head coach in the media, it usually makes the team pretty motivated and pissed the next week. They go into Chicago to play the lowly Bears, who get Jay Cutler back after missing a few weeks with a thumb injury. That might actually make them WORSE. He’s one hit on that throwing thumb away from us again seeing the “Matt Barkley Experience”, which is like if you combined QB play with the sophistication of a snuff film. I expect the Vikings to kick the shit out of this team, even if starting RB Jerick McKinnon doesn’t play.
Cleveland Browns ML +125
Yep, you read that right. Cleveland hosts the “almost as shitty” 2-5 Jets this weekend, who will be without C Nick Mangold, CB Buster Skrine, and QB Geno Smith (actually, that might be a good thing for the Jets). Cleveland hasn’t won a game all year, and we might not know who their QB will be until Sunday, but out of the rest of their schedule, this is probably one of the very few games they’ll have a chance to win. Hell, even 6th QB Kevin Hogan kept the game close last week vs Cincy and almost covered the +11. Add the good vibes of the Cavs hoisting a banner, and the Indians in the World Series, and the Browns might finally get that elusive win this week vs the Jets’ Ryan Fitzpatrick’s salty “they never believed in me” offense. The Browns are +325 to go 0-16 as of now, if you are wondering.
Keep eye on this space as I will add some political props via PredictIt, that I am on, as the fail election comes closer.
TEASER (+140):
NE -5.5
OAK +1
DEN -6
NFL Week 7
Not many big leans this week after a perfect Week 6.
Oakland +1 (-115)
Oakland is coming off a loss against Kansas City at home last week, and travels to Jacksonville to face the lowly Jaguars, who are coming off an inspiring 17-16 win at Chicago. Oakland offensively has averaged more points on the road at home, and considering what a shit hole the Oakland Coliseum is, I don’t blame them for playing more inspired football on the road. The Jaguars should be better with the talent they have in a division that is up for grabs in the AFC South. Lou and I have always said that this is because of their crappy coaching. After last week’s “win” vs Chicago, Head Coach Gus Bradley in his post game speech said that wins over (shitty) teams like Chicago is how you “establish your legacy”. He didn’t even swear, instead saying “that’s how you man the ‘f’ up, men!”. Methinks the lads are rolling their eyes if the HC thinks that wins over shitty teams are how you establish your “legacy”. Gimme the Raiders and the points, here.
New Orleans at Kansas City Under 50.5 (-110)
The Saints high powered offense at home, doesn’t travel so well on the road (minus John Kuhn blowing up in San Diego a few weeks back), especially in grass at one of the toughest places in all of football to play, Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs’ defense also is coming on as of late, and is helped in the Time of Possession department thanks to their (IMO) 3rd best running game (behind Dallas and Buffalo). I expect the Chiefs to run the ball, chew up clock to keep it away from Drew Brees as they make their run towards the AFC West title. I would take the -6.5 (now -6), but I’m gonna tease it instead as the Saints defense also happens to play a little bit better on the road, probably because they aren’t hungover eating delicious food on Bourbon Street the night before (KC does have legendary BBQ, however).
Miami +3 (-130)
This should be a close division style game, and Miami is helped by the fact RB Stud Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy is hurt with a hamstring and will miss this exciting match up. And by “exciting”, I mean, “exciting as much as watching a cat yawn”. The ML could also be a play here too for us as it would be a partial hedge vs our Miami under season bet (7).
TEASER (+160):
WAS +1
OAK +1
KC -6.5
CFL BONUS:
Toronto +17 (-115)
EDM @ CGY Under 57.5 (-110)
NFL Week 6
Miami +8.5
This is down to +8 now. Both Lou and Cousin Sal have this as one of their locks of the week. I even wanted to tease Pittsburgh (and so does everybody in America)….but this is always the type of game where they puke on themselves, especially on the road. Pittsburgh is 2-10 vs the number he last 12 times they have been a 7+ point favorite on the road; and they’ve even lost some of those games, so the ML (+360) is even in play here IMO. And you know the Steelers are going to be partying on South Beach once they land in Miami, could be a hangover effect there. The majority of the public is on Pittsburgh. Miami is atrocious in many areas, but I think they’ll at least be able to throw the ball against a shitty Steeler secondary and keep it close at home.
Kansas City +1
This is now at -1 KC. The Chiefs travel to Oakland after getting the shit kicked out of them in Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago. They are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid is 15-2 in his career coming off the bye week. Oakland maybe without Latavius Murray, and KC gets back Jamaal Charles (he played last week, but was on a pitch count). He’ll actually get some more touches this week, and I think is a DFS punt vs an Oakland defense who has a hard time stopping the pass. Denver lost last night, and that will give them some extra motivation vs an Oakland team also still in the AFC West hunt, but for some reason has struggled at home (actually, it isn’t a mystery: the Oakland Coliseum is a dump).
Saints vs Panthers Over 53
Cam Newton is probably not playing, but I don’t give a shit. I think even Derek Anderson can throw 2-3 TDs vs this shitty New Orleans offense, and the Carolina offense gets Jonathan Stewart back, which should be a boost. Carolina’s secondary has been suspect this year, and the Saints can always score a 30 spot at home, especially coming off a bye where they get guys back healthy like WR Willie Snead.
I also noted on the podcast I liked Washington +3 (-130) at home this week as well vs Philly, BUT their star TE and chain mover Jordan Reed is questionable with a concussion. If he doesn’t play, I’ll stay away as the Washington offense is probably cooked vs a surprisingly good Philly defense.
TEASER (+140):
NE -9
KC +1
SEA -6.5
NHL BONUS:
Chicago Blackhawks +115 ML
MLB BONUS:
Toronto at Cleveland Over 7.5 -105
Thursday Night Football 10.13
Chargers +3.5 (-115)
Good note here from oddssharks’ Jon Campbell:
If you picked all five Thursday Night games correctly this season, taking the underdogs straight up while laying the points with the faves, you’d be up $517.97 on $100 bets rather than $454.55 if you were to simply play the spread. It’s a significant difference.
The San Diego Chargers are 3-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. If you like the Chargers, the payout is +150 on the moneyline rather than the standard -110 if you take the field goal
Lou and I like the Chargers tonight as teams this year who are 2 point to 3.5 point underdogs have covered nearly 60% of the time this year.
I’ll have a look at the ML later and I might put that in a parlay with the Dodgers +140. Nationals’ Manager Dusty Baker has lost his last 9 postseason “must win” games.
NHL Opens Tonight
Totally forgot to ask Lou on the podcast about NHL leans.
Here are mine:
Winnipeg to NOT make the playoffs -115
Florida Panthers Over Points 97.5 -105
Edmonton Oilers Under Season Points 87.5 (-105)
Top goal scorer: Tyler Seguin +1800
For tonight:
Chicago vs St Louis Under 5 (+110)
Miracle Covers Podcast #2: MLB Playoffs, NFL Season Props, and NFL Week 6 Lines
Lou and I are back with another podcast! We discuss the MLB Playoffs, some NFL Season props like Division/Conference winners and the MVP race, and we talk about who we like in next weeks’ games.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miraclecoverscom-mlb-playoffs-and-nfl-week-6
MLB Monday
MLB:
Giants vs Cubs Under 6 (-110)
CFL BONUS:
Montreal vs Saskatchewan Over 52 (-105)
Podcast #2 coming soon; check out this parlay!
Parlay of the Week: $95 12-Leg Parlay nets $284,905 pic.twitter.com/1gF7ve9BNM
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) October 10, 2016
MLB, NCAA, and a UFC Parlay
MLB:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals Over 7.5 +105
3-1 so far this 2016 playoff.
NCAA
Miss St v Auburn Under 54.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs NC State Under 56
UFC PARLAY:
Albert Tumenov (-240) and Michael Bisping (-250) at +101
