UFC 211
Maia vs Masvidal Over Rounds 1.5 -240
Yair Rodriguez EVEN
Parlay +240:
Antigulov-425
Jedrzeczyk -180
Rodriguez EVEN
Canelo vs Chavez Jr, Kentucky Derby 2017
It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.
BOXING:
Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.
KENTUCKY DERBY
Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1
NHL BONUS:
PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)
Joshua vs Klitschko
Joshua vs Klitschko
Over Rounds 8.5 -115
In what is the most anticipated heavyweight bout in quite some time, the UK’s Anthony Joshua (-250) has a chance to go from wonder prospect to the baddest man on the planet vs veteran Wladimir Klitschko (+200) today at Wembley Stadium. Klitschko, coming off a decision loss to Tyson “I love cocaine” Fury, has always been known to be a prudent fighter. Joshua is a KO artist, but he’s never faced anyone with the defensive boxing of Klitschko. Klitschko often has a stigma of putting on bad fights because of his methodical approach, and his ability to hold guys and not allow them to find their jabbing range. I foresee this one going past 9 rounds, and maybe even the distance, as Joshua has yet to fight a boxer of Klitschko’s chin and pedigree. I fancy Joshua however in a decision (+500), as Klitschko is literally on the Back 9 at 17 and is on his way out…..but his iron chin and guile should see him through to the judge’s scorecards.
NHL:
Senators vs Rangers Over 5 (+105)
NHL Monday
Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105)
PARLAY: Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105) and BOS v OTT Under 5 (-125) at +200
UFC and NHL Saturday
NHL:
Bruins at Ottawa Over 5 +120
First off, NHL playoff unders are so far 1-9-2 O/U….and I think that will be the play for most of this series. But, considering the dynamic of Ottawa needing a win and the Bruins having injuries in the defense pairings, this should be a more open game today as Ottawa will be desperate to score goals even in Guy Boucher’s nitty neutral zone system.
UFC on FOX Kansas City:
Parlay @ +298: Souza -240, Johnson -699, Collier +120
Roy Nelson +125
Also, as a side note: if you do take the longshot Reis tonight in the title match, make sure to bet the “win by submission” prop. He is a jiu-jitsu maven and no one in the world is going to beat Mighty Mouse Johnson in a decision since he is the fastest fighters in the UFC. A shock win here will come via sub for Reis, and you’ll get more odds on that as supposed to the straight up +450.
EPL BONUS:
Stoke v Hull Over 2.5 +110
NHL Playoffs
Series Bet:
Nashville +145
I am taking this based on this alone:
i really wanted nashville to win already… but now i've never wanted something more pic.twitter.com/KI6zFaWb3f
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) April 11, 2017
Game Bet for today:
Bruins @ Ottawa Under 5 (-105)
UFC 210
Brooks vs Oliveira Goes the Distance – Yes @ -105
Daniel Cormier wins by decision +525
Anthony Johnson wins by decision +775
Parlay +395: Kamaru Usman-285, Myles Jury -450, Pearl Gonzalez +200
Lou’s MLB Over/Unders
My results on these have declined over the past few years. Who knew that spending markedly less time on something could result in inferior results?
10 Braves Over 74.5
9 Cubs under 96.5
8 Rangers Over 85.5
7 Yankees Under 82.5
6 Tigers Under 82.5
5 Mariners Under 85.5
4 Rockies Under 80.5
3 Reds Under 69.5
2 Nationals Over 90.5
1 Phillies Under 72.5
Homer pick to start but a lot of Unders this year. NL is woefully unbalanced so it’s hard to identify a pure .500 team. If there’s true separation by June, we could really see things diverge in the 2nd half of the season. Reds and Phillies should be the two worst teams along with San Diego and I have no idea how the Rockies total is at 80.5. In the AL, the Yankees need several things to go right to hit their over. I think the Tigers and Mariners are sending out the two oldest lineups in baseball without the rotation to really cover as backup.
Division Winner Guesses:
AL East – Boston
AL Central – Cleveland
AL West – Houston
NL East – Washington
NL Central – Chicago
NL West – San Francisco
