Miracle Covers

MLB Over/Under

Time once again for MLB Over/Unders.  Two years ago in predicting a Dodgers’ season under I made this observation…”if Kershaw goes down for a significant stretch this number is instantly unattainable.”  Of course, Kershaw missed a chunk of the season and the Dodgers cruised to an over.  Increasingly, I am trying to distance myself from statements that sound nice but are not concrete truth.  Here we go…

Texas Rangers (Under 77)

If things break right, the Rangers have a chance to be pretty awful this year.  Where to start…top pitching prospect Ragans OFS with TJ surg, “could be bad news for a system that isn’t exactly flush with depth.”  “Batting Gallo second in the team’s lineup is a ‘very real possibility,'” sounds like a potential disaster.  The only SP worth a damn is Cole Hamels, who “continues to struggle with his diminished velocity as age has caught up to him in a hurry.”  They signed Big Sexy. You think Elvis is going to repeat ’17 numbers?

Cincinnati Reds (73.5 Over)

Underrated lineup.  Votto’s numbers LY are pretty stunning.  Price has whispered about moving Hamilton out of leadoff which shows fantastic awareness.  The young kid Winker would seem an exciting possibility.  Suarez locked up, Barnhart very competent.  And they seem to finally be addressing the bullpen.  Important signing David Hernandez should help pave way for stud Iglesias.

Los Angeles Dodgers (97 Under)

The cocktail of SPs beneath Kershaw is an unsettling mixture of the elderly, the injury-prone, and the overrated.  Alex Wood will likely still be very good this year, but tough to see him being that good.  Rich Hill is 38.  Ryu hasn’t thrown 150 innings since 2014.  Has Maeda ever pitched into the 6th?  Chris Taylor will be hard-pressed to reach 80% of his stats.  Bellinger looked not only human but bad in the playoffs (29 strikeouts in 64 postseason at-bats.) The image of him consistently swinging over the top of curveballs in Gm 7 may become familiar this year.

San Diego Padres (71.5 Over)

In their trade with the Phillies, SD acquired Freddy Galvis who will “bat near the bottom of a sneaky-decent Padres lineup.”  Padres have very good depth in the outfield.  In years past, Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero would probably have been cringe-inducing starters, but now are perfectly respectable bench options. No Jered Weaver lunacy this year.

Houston Astros (97.5 Over)

Last year we hit with the Cubs Under.  The combination of a high O/U # and too may ?s was our justification.  I simply do not see that happening in Houston.  97.5 is a borderline terrifying number, but this team is stacked.  McHugh and Peacock are waiting in the wings if any pitcher gets injured or struggles.  The plethora of possible early alternatives to cover for the injured Gurriel is a sign of a fully capable farm system.

Tampa Bay Rays (73.5 Under)

This number has plummeted over the last few weeks.  Not admitting it but this organization seems to be in early stages of rebuild.  Longoria, Odorizzi, Souza, Boxberger, Cobb all gone.  When they DFA’d Dickerson I nearly lost sanity for about 45 minutes.  They’ll likely have either Kiermaier or Duffy hit 3rd, with neither a good option.  Jose De Leon AND Honeywell OFS.  Could be a long year.

Los Angeles Angels (83.5 Over)

Two exciting quotes from the folks at RotoWorld for Angels fans.  “Going to have an excellent defense across the board” and “vastly improved Angel offense”  I am not a massive Justin Upton fan but he had a very solid ’17 and “should be poised for a big 2018 hitting directly behind Mike Trout.” Similar story with Kinsler, who should be a “massive upgrade over what the Angels were able to get at second base in 2017.”

Seattle Mariners (81.5 Under)

When are you going to fall off the cliff Nelson Cruz?  Ben Gamel “saying he tailed off in the second-half of the campaign is an understatement.” Cano “relatively disappointing .765 OPS with 6 HRs and 37 RBI in 71 gms post AS game.” Taylor Motter, “owns just a .195/.265/.320 triple-slash across 338 major league at-bats.” David Phelps was expected to be a key member of the bullpen, TJ’d.  Say what you will about sentimentality and jersey sales and whatever, not the greatest sign they could afford a 25-man spot on Ichiro.

Atlanta Braves (75 Over)

Honestly just putting this in to fill out the numbers.  But, they do have a young, fun team.

New York Mets (81 Over)

I am contractually obligated to take this over.