MLB Over/Under
Time once again for MLB Over/Unders. Two years ago in predicting a Dodgers’ season under I made this observation…”if Kershaw goes down for a significant stretch this number is instantly unattainable.” Of course, Kershaw missed a chunk of the season and the Dodgers cruised to an over. Increasingly, I am trying to distance myself from statements that sound nice but are not concrete truth. Here we go…
Texas Rangers (Under 77)
If things break right, the Rangers have a chance to be pretty awful this year. Where to start…top pitching prospect Ragans OFS with TJ surg, “could be bad news for a system that isn’t exactly flush with depth.” “Batting Gallo second in the team’s lineup is a ‘very real possibility,'” sounds like a potential disaster. The only SP worth a damn is Cole Hamels, who “continues to struggle with his diminished velocity as age has caught up to him in a hurry.” They signed Big Sexy. You think Elvis is going to repeat ’17 numbers?
Cincinnati Reds (73.5 Over)
Underrated lineup. Votto’s numbers LY are pretty stunning. Price has whispered about moving Hamilton out of leadoff which shows fantastic awareness. The young kid Winker would seem an exciting possibility. Suarez locked up, Barnhart very competent. And they seem to finally be addressing the bullpen. Important signing David Hernandez should help pave way for stud Iglesias.
Los Angeles Dodgers (97 Under)
The cocktail of SPs beneath Kershaw is an unsettling mixture of the elderly, the injury-prone, and the overrated. Alex Wood will likely still be very good this year, but tough to see him being that good. Rich Hill is 38. Ryu hasn’t thrown 150 innings since 2014. Has Maeda ever pitched into the 6th? Chris Taylor will be hard-pressed to reach 80% of his stats. Bellinger looked not only human but bad in the playoffs (29 strikeouts in 64 postseason at-bats.) The image of him consistently swinging over the top of curveballs in Gm 7 may become familiar this year.
San Diego Padres (71.5 Over)
In their trade with the Phillies, SD acquired Freddy Galvis who will “bat near the bottom of a sneaky-decent Padres lineup.” Padres have very good depth in the outfield. In years past, Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero would probably have been cringe-inducing starters, but now are perfectly respectable bench options. No Jered Weaver lunacy this year.
Houston Astros (97.5 Over)
Last year we hit with the Cubs Under. The combination of a high O/U # and too may ?s was our justification. I simply do not see that happening in Houston. 97.5 is a borderline terrifying number, but this team is stacked. McHugh and Peacock are waiting in the wings if any pitcher gets injured or struggles. The plethora of possible early alternatives to cover for the injured Gurriel is a sign of a fully capable farm system.
Tampa Bay Rays (73.5 Under)
This number has plummeted over the last few weeks. Not admitting it but this organization seems to be in early stages of rebuild. Longoria, Odorizzi, Souza, Boxberger, Cobb all gone. When they DFA’d Dickerson I nearly lost sanity for about 45 minutes. They’ll likely have either Kiermaier or Duffy hit 3rd, with neither a good option. Jose De Leon AND Honeywell OFS. Could be a long year.
Los Angeles Angels (83.5 Over)
Two exciting quotes from the folks at RotoWorld for Angels fans. “Going to have an excellent defense across the board” and “vastly improved Angel offense” I am not a massive Justin Upton fan but he had a very solid ’17 and “should be poised for a big 2018 hitting directly behind Mike Trout.” Similar story with Kinsler, who should be a “massive upgrade over what the Angels were able to get at second base in 2017.”
Seattle Mariners (81.5 Under)
When are you going to fall off the cliff Nelson Cruz? Ben Gamel “saying he tailed off in the second-half of the campaign is an understatement.” Cano “relatively disappointing .765 OPS with 6 HRs and 37 RBI in 71 gms post AS game.” Taylor Motter, “owns just a .195/.265/.320 triple-slash across 338 major league at-bats.” David Phelps was expected to be a key member of the bullpen, TJ’d. Say what you will about sentimentality and jersey sales and whatever, not the greatest sign they could afford a 25-man spot on Ichiro.
Atlanta Braves (75 Over)
Honestly just putting this in to fill out the numbers. But, they do have a young, fun team.
New York Mets (81 Over)
I am contractually obligated to take this over.
March Madness Sunday
Butler ML +165
Marshall +550
UNC/Texas A&M Over 151 (-115)
TEASER (+180):
UMBC +10, Xavier -5.5, Clemson +2
NCAA St Paddys Saturday
Buffalo vs Kentucky Under 155 (-105)
Loyola-Chicago +5 (-105)
Kansas -4.5 (-115)
Rhode Island +9.5 (-110)
Parlay +189:
Kansas (1) -220 Michigan (3) -165 Michigan State (3) -420
Friday March Madness
TCU/Syracuse Under 136
Xavier -19
Murray State +10 (-105)
TEASER: UNC -20 and Over 163 (EVEN)
Parlay +163
Michigan State (3) -1299 Cincinnati (2) -1493 Auburn (4) -500 Xavier (1) -19 (-110)
March Madness Thursday
Loyola-Chicago +1.5 and in TEASER with Over 133
Kentucky -5.5 (-105)
San Diego St +160
Oklahoma/Rhode Island Over 157
Parlay +108
Kansas (1) -1400 Tennessee -1000 Gonzaga (4) -1100 Kentucky (5) -235 Texas Tech (3) -750
UFC 222
Ortega vs Edgar – Fight Goes the Distance – Yes @ -220
Alexander Hernandez +300
PARLAY: +207:
O’Malley -135
Dodson -155
Cyborg -1400
Super Bowl 52 Props and Picks
First, the Props:
Time to sing Nation Anthem Under 2 minutes
This is 6-6 in the last 12 Super Bowls…..Piunk is sick so she may try to hurry through this one
Tom Brady Over Completions 26 (-115)
He’s only missed this once the last 4 years – last week, where Jacksonville possessed the ball 65% of the game. He still went 25/37 so it’s not like he wasn’t close. Also as Cousin Sal said, “The Patriots running game is essentially pick plays and screens to small white guys”.
Over Total Turnovers +2.5 (+145)
Ajayi has lost a fumble this playoff…so has Blount as well as in last year’s Super Bowl. Foles is due for an INT, and Brady has thrown an INT in the last 3 Super Bowls. Add the Philly Special Team returners being in their 1st Super Bowl……there could be an abundance of turnovers in this one.
Burkhead Anytime TD score +175
If he plays, he’s been the Pats goalline guy for score TDs. I wish I could get a Branden Bolden line.
Patriots score on first drive of game – Yes (EVEN)
They haven’t done it in the last 9 Super Bowls they were in. It’s due!
Foles MVP +300, Brady MVP -110
Take the QBs, and hedge.
Amendola Over Receptions 4.5 (-115), Anytime TD scorer (+150), MVP +4400
Danny “Playoff” Amedola has a TD in the last 4 Patriots’ playoff games…he’s replaced Edleman in the “slot white guy role” and really no one can guard that once Tom/McDaniels/Danny figures it out.
Philly First team to call a TO -115
Doug Peterson was the second worst this year in wasting TOs (after Atlanta’s Dan Quinn…which they tried theri best to one up each other in setting TOs on fire in a playoff game)….money in the bank here and a 2nd Half TO may sneaky cost him the game.
Nick Foles Most Running Yards than Tom Brady -115
Seems like stealing….the Eagles actually call RPOs where Foles has the option to run!
Patriots Score on the first drive (EVEN)
They haven’t done so in the last 6 Super Bowls…they are due!
Patriots first play is a pass (-115)
The Pats have opened their games with a pass in every Belichick Super Bowl
Justin Timberlake covers a Prince Song during Halftime show (-170)
They are in Minny..he has to, right? This now is in the -300s….and the bet has shifted from “if” to “what song” (my guess is “Let’s Go Crazy”).
And the pick:
NE -4.5
Over 48
I think Belichick know’s Schwartz’s defense enough and they handle Nick Foles’ RPO game on 2 weeks rest to take care of business. Pats 30, Eagles 20.
NFL Championship Sunday
Again, these are my picks, with my actual plays in BOLD
Jaguars +8
I think the Jags keep it close today, especially with Brady’s hand injury and the fact the Patriots offense can be streaky, especially late in the game once they get the adjustments down, which is why I like Jags +0.5 (-105) in the 1st quarter. But as the game wanes, I think Jags mistakes by their aggressive (and sometime undisciplined) defense combined by a healthy Gronk finally getting his production, the Pats eventually take this one down as they have been the best second half team all year. One prop I like: Dion Lewis Over receiving yards 30.5 at -125. I also think with the nice weather and the defensive schemes involved, points will be scored today so I really like the over 45.5 (-110).
Vikings -3.5 (+115)
I just can’t take Nick Foles two weeks in a row. BTW, they might as well call this the Torture Bowl with these two fan bases being the most tortured in all of sports. The Vikings injuries coming into the game are a concern, but you know Nick FOles is gonna make a mistake or 5 to keep them in it. I will also say, the NFL is worried about the Super Bowl being in Minny due to the lack of hotels (which means they would probably prefer the Vikings to be in the game) and the fact it will be cold as shit so the “experience” will most likely suck…..so the fix may be in for a Pats/Vikes Super Bowl.
TEASER (+125):
NE -7.5
NE/JAX Over 45.5
Vikings -3
UFC 220 and Bellator 192 Picks
UFC 220:
Barroso +125
Bellator 192:
Quinton Jackson vs Chael Sonnen Will the fight go the distance? Yes @ +165
Parlay:
+102
Daniel Cormier-335
Enrique Barzola-250
Aaron Pico-900
NFL thoughts will be later
NFL Divisional Round 2017
1-3 last week ugh….so many coolers. But I got 3 out of the 4 winners right….so we are grouping well. Trust the process!!!!
Here are my picks this week, with my actual bets in BOLD
Philadelphia +3
I think this will be a close, 23-20 or 27-24 type of game. Philly has Nick Foles but Atlanta is notorious for keeping teams hanging around, especially on the road when they settle for FGs. Atlanta should win, but I don’t trust Dan Quinn enough to bet on him two weeks in a row.
New England -14
Did you know that since 2011, the Pats (5 divisional games, 300 minutes of football), have not trailed for a SINGLE minute in the divisional round, and have been only tied for around 13 minutes? That is nuts! I think the ESPN article questioning the Brady/Belichick/Karft relationship rallies the team this week, and Belichick (who knows where the bodies are buried) stomps on a Titans team who is young and aggressive but also lacking in the LB and CB depth needed to keep up with the Pats’ passing attack. I can also see Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, who is back for this game, having good days catching the ball out of the backfield. It’s also going to be windy af this Saturday night in Foxboro, and that may affect Marcus Mariota’s passing accuracy. which isn’t great as it is.
Pittsburgh -7.5 (+105)
Wait, I get to bet against Blake Bortles in a playoff game *with* plus juice? Sign me up! I can’t take Blake Bortles in a playoff game, who *ran* for more yards than throwing last week…..even with the Jags top 3 defense. Just don’t do it….it’s a trap! I also think JuJu Smith-Schuster, whowasn’t really a part of the Steelers’ offense in their early season loss to the Jags, has a big game (along with LeVeon Bell) to offset the Antonio Brown injury. I predicted Pats vs Steelers in the AFC title game before the year, and I will stay pat on that.
Saints +4 (-EVEN)
The Vikings are notorious for choking in the playoffs, and the Saints are one of the more well rounded teams in football. I feel as if this line should be +2, not +4. Brees vs Keenum….I have to take Brees, even if the Vikes won Week 1. But yet again, the Saints team then, is different now (especially with the emergence of Kamara, and the Saints defense getting better each week).
TEASER +120:
Pats -14
Steelers -7.5
Eagles +3
Free money prop of the week:
Will a QB catch a pass in the Divisional Round? No @ -5000
Will there be an fake punt attempt in the Divisional Round? – No @ -300
