NHL Playoff Futures and UFC 262
Lou is bullish on Avs winning cup (+450), SC Final (+175) and winning West (EVEN), and I have Washinton to win Stanley Cup +2000 before the year, but for me:
Winnipeg +600 to win North
Montreal +650 to win North
Colorado to win West EVEN
Series:
Montreal +255
Lightning -160
Bruins vs Capitals goes 7 Games +230
UFC BONUS:
Viviane Araujo +115
Tony Ferguson +145
MLB Over/Unders
Lets dig right in…
Nationals (Under 51.5%) +103
Players like Soto, Trea, Robles give the false impression that Washington is generating young talent assembly line style, but this is an old organization. It would seem quite possible this team is a fairly substantial seller @ the Trade Deadline. Mr Scherzer happens to be reaching the end of his long-term deal, the temptation to sell will be real if team is floundering. The farm system is quite poor, and this segues to another issue for this year, lack of fresh capable reinforcements to call on. Kieboom has shown nothing to indicate he is legit…Side Note on Kieboom, he got Lasik surg over Off Season, how awkward has that conversation have to be for a coach to recommend a pro athlete get eye surgery. “No, no, we are not saying you are bad, no, no, not at all…how many fingers am I holding up?” SPs ERAs were awful last year so team went out and got middle-aged name Jon Lester. If Josh Bell is mediocre (quite possible), or if Robles does not reproduce his 2019, this ‘sounds pretty good on paper’ lineup will struggle. Super, super tough division. And speaking of that super tough division…
Phillies (Over 50.5%) +104
2 bets so far and 2 plus monies…moderately terrifying. Anywhoots, this pick is primarily based on some positive regression, some quality signings, and Dave Dombrowski. “The team’s defense was a serious handicap in 2020. The Phillies allowed a .344 batting average on balls in play, the worst since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders” There are few guarantees in sports gambling, but I would bet my life that this # will lower substantially this year. And more encouraging is that these issues were not really based on SP stuff…”PHI starters last season ranked 10th in the majors in ERA (4.08) and 14th in WHIP (1.29) — and they were the best in the NL East” Bullpen issues are real and destructive, but they are also light-years easier to correct than rotation stuff. The team brings in Bradley, Kintzler, and Alvarado and I believe they are going to move Velasquez there full-time as well. Dave Dombrowski is not working in his mid-60s so he can watch a team undergo a 4 year rebuild.
Astros (Under 54.5%) +108
Another plus money bet…”Maybe the biggest surprise of the Astros’ offseason was that they didn’t acquire a starting pitcher.” That is a quote from The Athletic BEFORE Whitley out for season and Valdez injury. Now you say to me, buddy, they signed Odorizzi. That is true enough, but the double-edge sword on that is the organization is now apparently close to maxing out payroll with Correa entering a contract year…(No pricey reinforcements on the way). Michael Brantley has a pretty impressive injury history obviously. If he misses time this OF unit does not inspire confidence. And because everything is a circle…
Tigers (Over 42.5%) -105
AJ Hinch certainly does not come off looking like a saint from Monitor-gate, Bang-gate, DontRipMyShirt-gate…but he does not come out of it looking awful either. It gets revealed that twice he took a bat to one of those monitors…he probably should have done more…What Would Bill Belichick do…it was dirty, it was scuzzy, but it showed that Hinch 1) Didnt care for violating the rules 2) Took pro-active action to display his displeasure 3) Eventually said “fuck it. We are being paid to win ballgames.” Numerous beat reporters have noted a positive joo joo in the clubhouse with Hinch around. This club has a lot of quality young talent. I think they make positive strides this year, going something like 74-88, and get consistently better next couple years.
More March Madness Hedging Monday
Parlay +375: Houston ML -350* and Arkansas +245 ML
*Disclosure: I actually do like Oregon St +8 here if it was straight up, but Houston winning dims my still alive bracket hopes. I might actually find a way to middle Oregon St during the game, via live line, if they fall early and we get an even bigger number because I think it will be a close game.
Arkansas +8
I need Baylor to win to have any chance of winning my first NCAA bracket since 2010, and even bigger payout than my first in 2003, beating 178 players (Thank you, Carmelo, McNamara, Warrick, and Syracuse). The other equation is Michigan: if both make it to the Final Four and Final Two, then more hedging will be to come! I do think Baylor wins; Arkansas has a habit of lulls offensively in games so I am not taking ML straight up (I’ll wait for Final Four to do that…hopefully) instead putting that in parlay and putting most my hedge money on the number.
March Madness Hedge Sunday
Florida State +2
Parlay @ +140: Gonzaga -1000 and FSU ML +120
Teaser: UCLA +6.5 and USC -2
NCAA Saturday
Loyola Chicago -7 (-105)
Villanova vs Baylor OVER 142.5
UFC BONUS:
Thomas Almeida +250
FRANCIS NGANNOU wins by KO, TKO, DQ +100
March Madness Sunday
Villanova -5.5
Florida vs Oral Roberts OVER 147
Syracuse vs W.Virginia UNDER 147
TEASER 4pt +125:
Oregon St +6.5
Loyola Chicago +7.5
Houston vs Rutgers OVER 132
NCAA March Madness Saturday
Georgetown +5.5
St.Bonaventure ML +115
Iona + 16.5
Virginia -7
Maryland +140
NC Greensboro vs Florida State OVER 144 -115
NCAA March Madness Friday
NCAA March Madness is back! The main games this year start on a Friday, which is weird….but glad to back to be gambling on teams I have mostly no idea about.
Purdue vs North Texas Over 125.5 -105
Winthrop +6.5
Loyola Chicago -5.5
Morehead State ML +600
PARLAY @ +124:
Ohio State ML -1695
Baylor ML -4545
Purdue vs North Texas Over 125.5
Houston ML -3448
Illinois ML -3448
NIT Special:
Buffalo @ Colorado State UNDER 153 -110
MLB Over/Unders
Vegas continues to proactively nip potential payout issues early by doing season O/Us based on Win %. Hopefully everything continues to go smoothly, I am posting these now and will revisit in a week or 2 to view movement and make picks. I’d imagine the numbers will stay pretty straight forward with most adjustments being made on juice. As there are plenty of lines with a half percentage base, such as 49.5%, it would seem these lines are not getting rounded at all. If you have the over @ 55% and it comes in at 54.8%, you can kick rocks.
ARI : 45.5% (O -138) ~ 73.5
ATL : 56.5% ~ 91.5
BAL : 39.5% ~ 64
BOS : 50.5% (U -150) ~ 82
CHC : 48.5% (U -130) ~ 78.5
CWS : 55% ~ 89
CIN : 49.5% ~ 80
CLE : 49% (O -145) ~ 79.5
COL : 40% ~ 65
DET : 42.5% ~ 69
HOU : 54.5% ~ 88
KC : 46.5% ~ 75.5
LAA : 51.5% ~ 83.5
LAD : 62% (O -154) ~ 100.5
MIA : 45% (U -129) ~ 73
MIL : 51% ~ 82.5
MIN : 54.5% (O -138) ~ 88.5
NYM : 56% (O -131) ~ 90.5
NYY : 59% ~ 95.5
OAK : 52% (O -137) ~ 84
PHI : 50.5% ~ 82
PIT : 36.5% (U -126) ~ 59
SD : 59% ~ 95.5
SEA : 45% ~ 73
SFG : 46% (U -135) ~ 74.5
StL : 53% ~ 86
TB : 52% (O -140) ~ 84
TEX : 42.5% (U -144) ~ 69
TOR : 54% ~ 87.5
WAS : 51.5% ~ 83.5
Quick Gambling Life Post/Question
Some day, someone with eons of time and a super computer needs to to compile the historical data on games like this. Games where the instant you hear the line 85-90% of the betting universe will pick the same side, and importantly, its the only game on in that sport. A game where a healthy team playing at home (doesnt mean as much at the moment I know) that has a better record, is playing a team in poor form; a game that is the only one in town and has a spread that will likely encourage action on the favorite. I went to 4-5 different gambling sites and, of course, all of them have essentially the same 2-1 Everton predicted victory, and of course, cover. Bottom-line question: If this game happens mid-day on Saturday vs solo on a Monday afternoon/evening, is there a marked difference in outcome in relation to spread? Is Southampton, historically, more likely to draw or win (cover) this match-up at this lonely time slot?
