MLB Over/Unders
Lets dig right in…
Nationals (Under 51.5%) +103
Players like Soto, Trea, Robles give the false impression that Washington is generating young talent assembly line style, but this is an old organization. It would seem quite possible this team is a fairly substantial seller @ the Trade Deadline. Mr Scherzer happens to be reaching the end of his long-term deal, the temptation to sell will be real if team is floundering. The farm system is quite poor, and this segues to another issue for this year, lack of fresh capable reinforcements to call on. Kieboom has shown nothing to indicate he is legit…Side Note on Kieboom, he got Lasik surg over Off Season, how awkward has that conversation have to be for a coach to recommend a pro athlete get eye surgery. “No, no, we are not saying you are bad, no, no, not at all…how many fingers am I holding up?” SPs ERAs were awful last year so team went out and got middle-aged name Jon Lester. If Josh Bell is mediocre (quite possible), or if Robles does not reproduce his 2019, this ‘sounds pretty good on paper’ lineup will struggle. Super, super tough division. And speaking of that super tough division…
Phillies (Over 50.5%) +104
2 bets so far and 2 plus monies…moderately terrifying. Anywhoots, this pick is primarily based on some positive regression, some quality signings, and Dave Dombrowski. “The team’s defense was a serious handicap in 2020. The Phillies allowed a .344 batting average on balls in play, the worst since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders” There are few guarantees in sports gambling, but I would bet my life that this # will lower substantially this year. And more encouraging is that these issues were not really based on SP stuff…”PHI starters last season ranked 10th in the majors in ERA (4.08) and 14th in WHIP (1.29) — and they were the best in the NL East” Bullpen issues are real and destructive, but they are also light-years easier to correct than rotation stuff. The team brings in Bradley, Kintzler, and Alvarado and I believe they are going to move Velasquez there full-time as well. Dave Dombrowski is not working in his mid-60s so he can watch a team undergo a 4 year rebuild.
Astros (Under 54.5%) +108
Another plus money bet…”Maybe the biggest surprise of the Astros’ offseason was that they didn’t acquire a starting pitcher.” That is a quote from The Athletic BEFORE Whitley out for season and Valdez injury. Now you say to me, buddy, they signed Odorizzi. That is true enough, but the double-edge sword on that is the organization is now apparently close to maxing out payroll with Correa entering a contract year…(No pricey reinforcements on the way). Michael Brantley has a pretty impressive injury history obviously. If he misses time this OF unit does not inspire confidence. And because everything is a circle…
Tigers (Over 42.5%) -105
AJ Hinch certainly does not come off looking like a saint from Monitor-gate, Bang-gate, DontRipMyShirt-gate…but he does not come out of it looking awful either. It gets revealed that twice he took a bat to one of those monitors…he probably should have done more…What Would Bill Belichick do…it was dirty, it was scuzzy, but it showed that Hinch 1) Didnt care for violating the rules 2) Took pro-active action to display his displeasure 3) Eventually said “fuck it. We are being paid to win ballgames.” Numerous beat reporters have noted a positive joo joo in the clubhouse with Hinch around. This club has a lot of quality young talent. I think they make positive strides this year, going something like 74-88, and get consistently better next couple years.
