Miracle Covers

When to Use Reverse Run Lines

A reverse (better known as alternate) run line is a bet that the listed underdog will or will not win the game by more than one run.

For example, tonight’s Pirates/Braves line is as follows:

Braves (Jurrjens) -120
Pirates (Morton) +113

The Run Line (or handicap or spread) is:
Braves -1.5 +146
Pirates +1.5 -158

Lastly, the Reverse (or Alternate) Run Line is:
Braves +1.5 -290
Pirates -1.5 +256

The two non-degenerate reasons for using the reverse run line are as follows:

1) Suspected (or known) injury to a starting pitcher

Phil Hughes is the classic and most recent example here. After all of the reports of Hughes’ velocity being down as well as being crushed by the Tigers in his first start, assuming you wanted to bet against Hughes in his next start, you may as well use the reverse run line (assuming the Yankees were still favored with him starting) as you can receive a much larger return. We are assuming here that an injured pitcher is much less likely to keep a game competitive and as such, the likelihood of a one-run game is diminished.

Of course, should you know for certain that said pitcher is injured and starting anyway (Hughes is probbably the closest one can get without legitimate inside knowledge) this is certainly the way to go.

A lesser version of this system would use this to bet against pitchers with inordinately high pitch counts in their previous start(s) again assuming those pitchers were still favored overall. There doesn’t seem to be much sense in laying lots of juice for a team to not lose by 2+ runs and in any case, there’s approximately zero money to be made betting on large favorites in MLB.

2) Overly favorable matchups

At the start of the year, Justin Masterson and Alexei Ogando for Cleveland and Texas respectively were considered good swingmen with established strengths and weaknesses that would likely get exposed as a regular starter. When given a particularly favorable matchup, pitchers such as these can be a good play sometimes as significant underdogs. This can also extend to pitchers back from injury, or recently called up from the minors. There’s little to no reason however, that making a game a play under the normal moneyline should by default extend to taking a game at a reverse run line instead.

Roughly 30% of MLB games are decided by one run so that’s the primary reason to not use these. Of those 30% of games, roughly 40% go to the underdog and 60% break to the favorite. Since there aren’t any of these that offer +1.5 +2xx, most people will be best served by leaving these alone minus the Hughes-like exceptions.

Reverse Run Lines – Baseball Bets

I’m looking to point out that pinnacle only has run lines up for favorites on their primary MLB Bet page.  This was a little trippy fact for me to clue-in on as it highlights how sneaky odds can be.  If you were making a list of People with Exceptional Observational Skills, I would not be among the leaders.  Makes me feel a bit like

Me = the mouse

Pinnacle = scientist

Favorite run line = slightly moldy cheese stuck right in front of me

Alternate run line = better quality cheese placed off to the side behind the paper mache curtains?

This might not be entirely accurate, but it is interesting that not only are the alternate run lines not on the main MLB page, but at this moment, 9 EST, the alternate run lines are still not up yet.  They are in the “Betting to Be Available Soon” section.  Do lines like these require extra work to figure out, or does pinnacle hold off putting them up because they are much shakier business for The House?  This seems like a question for Dr Lou so I’m going to see if we can get him on here to discuss this.  While doing 34 seconds of research on this issue I came across an internet thread “Does anyone know of a reliable book where you can parlay alternate run lines in baseball?”  I like where all of this is headed.

• 20 Units on Baltimore -1.5 +131
• 17 Units On Red Sox -135
• 19 Units on Tampa Bay +150

Only one winner yesterday.  946.97 is where things stand

UPDATED NOTES AND PICKS…As of 2 EST the Alternate Run Lines were up on pinnacle.  I have enough time on my hands to keep up with this over the next few days and try to figure out when these lines usually go up and attempt to get a reason for the delay.  You would think it would be pretty much a set formula once the run lines are established.  And now essentially obligated to insert reverse run line picks tonight, we’ll go with…

• 15 Units on Seattle -1.5 +175
• 12 Units on NY Mets -1.5 +197
• 33 Units on Colorado +1.5 -308
• 9 Units on Tampa Bay -1.5 +249

Baseball Bets

This series of articles is growing decidedly boring.  Something like this is really interesting if the picks end up being 90% right or 95% wrong, all I’m doing is slowly pissing away fake money.  Dullllllllllll.  I’ll try to get more imaginative or scrap this idea, but until then.

• 22 Units on Red Sox -118
• 17 Units on White Sox +142
• 14 Units on Mariners -102

-14.67 Net on my last series of picks bringing my total down to 972.24

Baseball Bets

Net of -6.33 last entry.  Slowly but surely losing money to The House, just the way God intends it.  Let’s go with…

• 20 Units on Mariners -120
• 16 Units on Mets +161
• 14 Units on A’s +137

Net of 986.91.  All games must be completed, if the Rapture happens all bets are off.

Baseball Bets

Won with the Sox on the 16 Unit bet but lost on the other two for a net of -18.44 Units.  Let’s see what is happening tonight…

• 18 Units on D-Backs/Padres under 9.5 -112
• 14 Units on Brewers/Dodgers under 7 -120

All for now, may try to sneak in a few more before first pitches…

Current Unit Count 993.24

Baseball Bets

Realized a while back that the Tag Line on this site is “Winning at Sports.”  Sheen owes us some royalties.  On 11/27/09 (older entries), VT had recommended we change the name of the site to “Losing at Sports” during a cold streak for Louis.  I can’t believe we missed the obvious that we could have changed the site name to “Lousing at Sports.”

Won with SF a few nights ago.  16 Unit bet on -137 kicks us off to 1011.68.  Today we will go…

• 18 Units on Twins +114
• 16 Units on Red Sox -118
• 14 Units on Rangers/Angels under 8.5 -113

Current Unit Count 1011.68

1,000 Unit Baseball

Coming up on a quarter way through the baseball season.  Starting off with 1,000 units.  I can make any baseball bet I come across on pinnacle; run line, over/under, prop…whatever.  Let’s see what happens.  Today we will do…

• 16 units San Fran -137 money line

Vagaries and Variance

As I write this, the White Sox and Royals are in extra innings because KC closer Joakim Soria allowed four runs to Chicago after recording the first two outs easily in the top of the 9th.

The following discussion took place between the befuddled Royals announcers:

Announcer 1: What are the odds in Vegas that this game would still be going?
Announcer 2: There were 2 outs in the inning. I’m still trying to wrap my head around it.

By just taking a quick glance at the Win Probability Graph, I’d argue it was probably off the board. No one would even bother betting on something like this. But with 2,500 games a season, at least a team or two will convert on a 1000/1 chance throughout the season. We shouldn’t be surprised by this because weird and unlikely things happen in baseball all the time, but we are and can’t process such unlikely outcomes.

As anyone who has gambled for a non-trivial length of time can attest, these streaks can last for days or weeks at a time. Here’s a lengthy Royals example from 2000

The Royals began the 2000 season with a respectable 4-3 record, and then things got crazy. In the last game of a four-game set with the Twins, the Royals held a 5-3 lead going into the ninth. This was back in the days when the Royals thought that closers were born, not made, and so they had paid real U.S. legal tender to Ricky Bottalico to be their closer. On this day, naturally, Bottalico blew the two-run lead in the ninth. (The Royals learned their lesson so well that after the season, they made Roberto Hernandez the focal point of the trade return they got for Johnny Damon.)

But then something funny happened. Damon led off the bottom of the ninth with a home run, and the Royals won, 6-5. The next night, the Orioles came to town; the Royals erased a 5-2 lead with three runs in the eighth, and after both teams struggled to score a putaway run, the Royals finally broke through in the bottom of the 12th, when with one out and Joe Randa on first base, backup catcher Brian Johnson went deep.

And then the next night, the Orioles held a 6-0 lead going into the bottom of the seventh, when the Royals broke through for four runs. The score remained 6-4 until the bottom of the ninth, when Gregg Zaun walked, Mark Quinn doubled to put two runners in scoring position…and Rey Sanchez lofted a flyball that snuck inside the fair pole in left field, prompting Denny Mathews to semi-famously exclaim “What is going on?” The Royals had won three straight games on a walk-off homer. In fact, these three games – I’m not making this up – are what brought the phrase “walk-off” into the national baseball lexicon. The term had been around for years – Dennis Eckersley originated it, I believe, calling it “a walk-off piece” when Kirk Gibson hit a particular home run off of him – but after these three games, ESPN.com started using the term to describe what the Royals had done, and the term has been with us ever since.

The next night, after Bottalico blew another save in the ninth, the Royals didn’t end it with a homer. No, with two out and one on in the bottom of the inning, Carlos Beltran ended the game with a lousy single. Four straight walk-off wins, three on a homer, and the Royals were 8-3 and tied for first place. They were the talk of baseball as they headed out on a nine-game road trip.

They lost all nine games.

In Monday’s Championship game, Butler had their worst scoring game since 2004 and the worst 2 point shooting percentage of any team in all of D1 for a game this season (via Ken Pomeroy). It’s unlucky for Butler that this happened with millions of people watching as opposed to away to Cleveland St., and it’s unlucky for it to happen to any one team in particular. With enough games, these vagaries balance themselves out to a degree which is what led Billy Beane to utter his semi-famous quip about the baseball playoffs being a crapshoot. Unlikely things will happen in any given game, and outside of a player or team’s baseline skill level, we’re powerless to do much about it.

This is what’s led me into futures becoming far and away the highest proportion of my gambling action. Assuming you don’t have any inside information, you’re usually looking at extremely small edges also assuming you’re on the right side of the game to begin with. With futures, the odds can be extremely favorable, moreso than any other gambling opportunity available.

The only reason the Red Sox losing four in a row is particularly notable is that it’s happened in the first four games of the season. Just like Butler, with lots of eyes and no where to hide, everything looks worse than it probably is in reality. Even if that reality involves scoring seven runs in five games. Over the next couple of days or weeks, I’ll be looking for opportunities to gamble on players or teams that are under/overperforming to start the season. It’s still a little too early to see any lines move very much, and it’s way too early to start grading our futures bets.

That said, Go Astros?