MLB 4/29
Niese pitched OK yesterday but the Mets could not do anything offensively. Better luck today…
O’s @ Mariners ML +103 @ 24
SF Giants ML +101 @ Arizona @ 24
Joe Saunders isn’t all that terrible, is he? Matt Cain has to turn things around at some point, doesn’t he?
MLB 4/28
All bets hit yesterday so we are up 75 on the week, down 25 since 4/1. Only thing I like at the moment…
Phillies @ NY Mets ML +108 @ 27.
I am tempted to go with the reverse run line business. If you read btw the Vegas lines they have this game going something like 4-3 Philly, where I have it 5-3 NY. Carlos Ruiz back in the lineup.
Saturday
We won our single live wager yesterday as the Padres won 2-1 at home to SF. KC & Cleveland were rained out and that bet is rolling over to today with the same pitching matchup at +146 instead of +145. The KC soccer bet from yesterday is tonight as well. Adding another baseball play tonight with the Fish at home to the Cubs.
Chicago(Wood) @ Miami (Sanabia) +110
I like the thinking on Pat’s Padres bet today, but am not a fan of Stults or most lefties against the Giants. Zito is also an extreme flyballer, so a big park like San Diego’s plays much more to his strength.
MLB 4/27
There are probably 2 or 3 people out there who have been able to make a half-way decent living over the years betting against Barry Zito. I want to be one of them. This combined with my unfounded belief in the 2013 Padres and you have
Giants @ Padres ML +110 @ 26
In addition to this I will take Reds @ Nationals ML -101 @ 23. In both of these games Vegas has the away team as the slightest of faves so let’s root, root, root.
Brewers are swinging the bats fairly well the last week or 2, we will also take Brewers @ Dodgers Over 8 -101 @ 24
Weekend Plays
We won our NFL Draft under, a life first for me, with 12 SEC players taken. Player #12 didn’t go until the 32nd pick so our under 13 was good. It was looking difficult for there to be 14 so while there was a risk of a push, it didn’t seem likely to go over. It also turned out that under two QBs was a very solid play as maybe NFL teams are getting smarter and not taking crappy players at QB high in the draft anymore.
In baseball, I am now sure at this point that my filters are too stringent so I will tinker with the system setup some more. Our lean last night in Cahill won but went from -130 to -135 before start time. Two plays today:
Cleveland +145 @ KC (Kazmir/Santana)
SF @ SD Even (Lincecum/Cashner)
I will be away on Saturday so likely no plays over the weekend, but one in MLS I will post early and that is San Jose +150 away to Chivas.
Debating the under on DC/Columbus even though it is -150.
Blah
Not much happening this week and it’s been busy at work as well. I’ve missed a few bets with the day games and nothing at night has looked any good at all. The one bet I would have made was on the Cubs a few days back when they lost in 13. Still it’s better to not do anything than to do something monetarily harmful, so I’m not going to be bothered too much. I kind of like Cahill for Arizona tonight but need to see lineups and the public numbers before betting.
One play on the NFL Draft tonight
Total SEC Players Picked in 1st Round Under 13 -250 2u
There should be an MLS play somewhere for Saturday.
Soccer Play
Taking Bayern at home today FTW. For anyone who has been paying attention to league soccer, picking against Barca even drawing at the moment should not be considered overly daring, especially considering the opponent. Let’s hope Bayern can pick one up at home. The bet…
Bayern ML +110 @ 24
MLB Play
Shelby Miller is a very young, exciting talent for the St Louis Cardinals. Young, exciting pitchers can be often volatile, either tossing gems or getting bombed. They leave the 7 IP 3 ERs allowed lines to old men like Ryan Dempster or Ted Lilly. That is partly why I am taking the run line in this game, thinking Miller could shut the Nationals down completely. See what happens.
St Louis (-1.5) @ +156 @ Washington @ 22
Sunday
We went 2-1 on our MLS plays last night. The home favorites both won and Chicago got a late winner to beat Columbus 1-0. While it’s a pretty solid rule to never bet on a draw in soccer, I nearly did so on this Columbus Chicago game. The draw was around +225 and Columbus to win was around +210 so I took the +120 that pushed on the tie instead. I will need to revisit draw odds on these MLS games at some point since they are so low scoring. One game over 2.5 out of six last night.
Nothing in MLB again today. Two leans in Miami and Seattle both away, but I am short on time and will pass on both. Justin Grimm is starting for Texas today and while he’s a little old for a prospect, my intuition is telling me he’ll be just fine in the Rangers rotation.
MLB Plays
Cardinals ML -115 @ Phillies @ 22
Indians @ Astros Over 9 -101 @ 22
GM 1 Royals ML +135 @ Red Sox @ 22 (Ervin Santana Game)
Jake Westbrook has a 0.00 ERA but is only 1-1. Kyle Kendrick kinda sucks. The Indians and Astros offenses are both facing batting practice coaches. The Red Sox probably all partied last night.
