Miracle Covers

Sunday

3-0 in baseball and 1-2 in soccer makes for a mediocre Saturday. I really need to remember that the difference between these MLS teams is not as great as other leagues. Seattle cruised while Columbus was fine despite missing a pair of defensive starters. In baseball, Texas cruised to another win behind Mitch Moreland who may be the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment. San Diego beat Washington 2-1 and the Natinals may have more problems against lefties until Jason Werth comes back with Ramos already back on the DL as well. I’ve been look for a spot to fade the Yankees against left handed starters as well, but they also roughed up Buehrle the other night.

As promised, some La Liga nonsense as we are taking Zaragoza and Deportivo at home today at -111 and -143 respectively. These are both being hedged with draw bets just like the Atletico game to cover the primary wager. If I were getting the Pinnacle prices on Newcastle I’d consider taking them at home to Arsenal today, but I’m 50 points off and will pass. This is good news for Spurs as Newcastle tend to get smushed whenever I take them.

Baseball leans this morning are on San Diego, Colorado, Minnesota and Cleveland though there is a good chance of there being no plays because I am again not happy with my lines versus the Pinnacle ones. Not willing to go 10 points worse than Pinnacle on any of these at the moment. Updates later per usual and I’ll sort out my spreadsheets to figure out where we are on soccer for the season.

Soccer Saturday

We got a much needed draw/win with Atletico yesterday in another wonderful cup final. Finals are often tense and dour affairs, but the FA, Euro and now Spanish Cup have been 2.5 for 3 in really entertaining games. One can only hope the Champions League final is equally fun. As I was telling Sean, the final count from yesterday was 3 goals, 14 cautions, two red cards (I forgot about Gabi’s in the 125th), three shots off a post, two really top class saves from Courtois, a goal-line clearance from Juanfran, one manager ejection and the benches cleared twice. Just a wonderful, entertaining game.

Doble oportunidad para el Real Madrid by DaniDV

Baseball split yesterday so we are still scuffling around for May. 7-8 -0.41

Three baseball plays on a busy day today:
Natinals (Zimmerman) @ Padres (Stults) +117
Rays (Hernandez) -110 @ Orioles (Jurrjens)
Tigers (Sanchez) @ Rangers (Grimm) +110

Also three MLS Plays this afternoon and evening

Columbus @ Toronto Over 2.5 +120
Colorado @ San Jose -140
Dallas @ Seattle -105

La Liga nonsense tomorrow.

1999

That’s the last time Atletico has beaten Real Madrid in a match. It doesn’t matter the location or the teamsheets, the Rojiblancos have lost or tied every single time since then. Even when Real put out their second string, Atletico still contrive to lose. They are a European version of the Red Sox pre-2005. The indispensible Sid Lowe explains:

Atlético need the pressure to be transferred. Asked what the difference is between Real and Atlético, the Atlético manager Diego Simeone replied: “400 million euros a year on the budget.” He was right of course and, man for man, there is virtually no comparison. Of the sides who are likely to start on Friday perhaps only Radamel Falcao, Thibault Courtois and Miranda would get into the Real side. Yet there is something else that lingers over this tie: the psychology.

Atlético have not beaten Real this millennium. Their last victory was in 1999 – and that year they went down. Since they came back up to the first division, they have not been able to beat Real once. In that time more than 60 clubs have managed it but not Atlético. It is 25 games now and there is a kind of depressing inevitability about it; they have invented countless different ways, each more absurd than the last, to lose.

They call Atlético El Pupas, the jinxed one, and that has become excuse and millstone wrapped in one. It is an odd nickname for a team who have won two Europa Leagues in the last four years and Simeone has given Atlético a toughness that belies the nickname. But Real have so far proven an insurmountable hurdle. It is hard not to feel like there is a mental block that paralyses them. Less than a month ago, Atlético took a three-minute lead against Real only to concede an own goal and lose 2-1.

All of these kinds of streaks end eventually even though no one thinks they will happen in the moment. We are betting it will happen today. All kinds of hedgeworks for this one as is standard for high odds matches. Also it’s a Cup tie, so extra time doesn’t count for our purposes.

ATL Mardid to win +550
ATL Madrid to draw +325
ATL Madrid +1 goal +105

3:30 ET kickoff I believe.

Baseball would have been 1-1 had we found decent lines yesterday. Verlander had a poor outing as Texas cruised and the Rockies led 6-0 after three before Chacin imploded to lose 8-6. Leans on the Twins, Fish and A’s today but none are particularly inspiring. Not sure yet what the schedule will be like for this weekend.

EDIT:

This is so ugly for baseball tonight:
Twins (Worley) +129 at home to Red Sox (Buchholz)
A’s (Parker) +103 at home to Royals (Shields)

More soccer tomorrow.