Wednesday
An ugly day in baseball reminded me why I’m treating the Astros and Marlins separately from the other 28 teams, something I had forgotten in the last few weeks with Miami’s over .500 play here in June. The Mariners also lost ugly, abruptly ending whatever winning streak was going on. That said, we had a rare total which was again a winner. 5-0-1 +5u on those and I wish there were more because the sides are now all of +1.04 for the season. Better than losing though and I think all but removing the away teams, which are 6-12 -4.04 will help. I think there is space for these plays when there is a good matchup and very solid plus odds, but the percentage of plays probably needs to be 80-90% on the home sides.
Not many leans today: KC, Tampa and Houston who we are mostly ignoring. Soccer today has Brazil and Uruguay in Confed cup, where I can’t see value on any side. The draw at +400 would be the closest to a play.
EDIT: Uruguay came close to pulling off a draw but ultimately lost as expected 2-1. Marlins won again today and are 9-6 since Stanton came back from the DL. They also went 5-15 to start the season with him playing so this is mostly small sample size, but their lineup isn’t anywhere near as terrible as it was a few months ago with Stanton and Morrison back instead of whatever schmos they were playing everyday instead. Miami’s pitching has been slightly above average and while they probably have too far to go to cover my 64 win proposition, they are looking more Mariners bad than Astros bad. Briefly on the Astros, they’ve allowed 405 runs after yesterday’s disaster, 40 more than the next closest teams and that’s only going to increase after they deal Bud Norris at the All-Star break.
Passing on KC tonight though it’s close. 50/50 proposition after the lineups came out but I’m looking for a line move toward the Royals or a better price to put down some dollars.
Tuesday
Nothing doing yesterday so we’ll try and do better today. Early leans on the resurgent Marlins, KC, Houston and Seattle. Bookmaker lines on a couple of these looked terrible versus Pinnacle so I will check throughout the day to see if there ends up being a play. Also having a look today at Colorado/Boston under 9.5. Will need to see lineups for that one though.
Ended up with three plays, only two of which are mentioned above:
St. Louis (Westbrook) @ Houston (Harrell) +137
Pittsburgh (Locke) @ Seattle (Saunders) +104
Arizona (Cahill) @ Washington (Gonzalez) O7.5 -105
Monday
As mentioned, no plays yesterday and probably nothing again today. Slight lean on the Padres hosting Cliff Lee and the Phillies tonight. Only four games today in MLB and nothing doing in soccer besides the under-20 World Cup. I’ve got the live-betting open for the US-France game currently underway, but nothing so far there either. Turkey is hosting the tournament and it’s quite hot so the pace of the game has been pretty slow. The Qatar World Cup is going to be one ugly, unwatchable affair.
I made an effort to get a post and play up on Wimbledon yesterday, but because Bookmaker blows there was no chance to get any action down. In short, David Ferrer, who is mediocre on grass, ended up in a quarter of the bracket without any of Federer, Nadal, Murray or Djokovic. The plan was to bet on some of the other good players in Ferrer’s quarter to win the tournament, with the intention of hedging and betting large on Djokovic in the semis later. Instead of listing all of the top 30 or so players like Pinnacle, Bookmaker just listed the top eight and then lumped the rest into ‘Field’ +675. :-(
Some updates on totals: MLB June is 9-7-1 +3.10. +7.04 for the season. Soccer is 16-16 +4.71
Sunday
1-0 yesterday in baseball as Seattle won 7-5 and 2-1 in soccer where Mexico and DC both won for the first time in a long while while Dallas was never in the game but managed two late goals to draw 2-2.
No plays and nothing particularly close to one anywhere today. Enjoy your Sunday.
Saturday
2 for 2 on plays yesterday has us back on the plus side for June. I’m away all day today so posting a likely play that I won’t have time to check in and track later.
Oakland (Straily) @ Seattle (Harang) +123
Harang has been sneaky good this season so we’ll see if the trend continues. Leans on KC/White Sox over and Colorado/Washington under but likely a pass on both as is standard for these totals.
In soccer, Mexico +188 vs Japan in Confed Cup
MLS Saturday:
DC United +218 (2u), Draw +227 (1u) vs. San Jose
Dallas +147 vs. Kansas City
Summer Friday
I was so messed up yesterday I forgot what day it was, and it ended 1-1 after Bailey blew his last save opportunity of the season in Detroit. Tampa cruised to a win as predicted, and had the numbers also agreed with me it would have been a much larger play.
Today is going to be ugly with Brewers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Marlins on the short list. Baltimore/Toronto Under 9 is close but still a pass, so apologies to the two of you following my rare but awesome totals plays.
Two confirmed plays so far:
Reds (Cueto) @ Diamondbacks (Miley) +103
Marlins (Nolasco) +135 @ Giants (Lincecum)
Wednesday
I’ve been sick this week and missed a play and a post yesterday. I was monitoring the Twins line and they went on to win easily but I fell asleep in a drug-induced state around 6:00 and woke up well after all of the games for the night had started. I’m posting a play early today to prevent this from happening again, though it’s a road team and as seen those have not been doing too well for me. Regardless, it’s Red Sox (Lackey) +108 @ Tigers (Alvarez). Nothing stood out on totals but I will have one more look.
I know very little about basketball and the NBA, but no one seems to give the Spurs a chance to win outright this evening and I do not understand why this is the case. +230 is a good price in my very amateur opinion.
Lastly, there’s a bridge jumper play available today in Confed Cup with Spain versus Tahiti. Pinnacle doesn’t even have a line, but the spread is -8 and Bookmaker is showing -17000. I don’t think there’s any sketchy match fixing that could prevent a Spain win in this one. Tahiti’s coach is talking about allowing “15 or 20” but Spain is playing their reserves so we’ll see what happens.
Doubling down on the away games today while I wait to get the rest of my bankroll back once this Spain-Tahiti game ends. Tampa (Moore) -102 @ Yankees (Pettitte). The Yankees lineup today is absolute garbage. Matt Moore doesn’t have a large platoon split, but the Yankees are starting six lefthanders and the righties are Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix and Vernon Wells. Tampa has one lefty in James Loney in their lineup and he’s batting 9th. Admittedly, it’s not like the Joe Girardi has a better lineup he can send out there, but versus lefties this is at least Mariners/White Sox level bad.
The Heat Is On!
I have had a very profitable NBA season, and I haven’t watched many games. Mostly hunches and assumptions on a) how series dynamics go in the NBA from years of watching it and b) assuming it’s half-rigged……. have helped me win money this postseason. Postseason NBA is so much easier to bet on than regular season NBA!
I liked the Heat at -6 (now -7), the ML at -295 (now -310) and the Heat in a teaser (to -2) and the under at 191.5 (to 195.5)…..until I heard THIS news:
As you can see in the screenshot below, two of tonight’s refs (Ken Mauer and Mike Callahan) have been money for under bettors, while the third (the infamous Joey Crawford) can be qualified as neutral.
Considering *this* news….I now LOVE the Heat tonight. Throw in NBA ratings dynamics, the fact that older teams like the Spurs have trouble in these quick turnaround road games (from years of watching the Celtics, I know…much different when we took the Spurs in Game 1 because they have 5+ days of rest, and are 8-0 in the playoffs when this occurs), and the fact that Joey “The Closer” Crawford is refereeing tonight’s game – book the Heat line, ML, and tease that sucker with the under.
P.S.:
For you baseball bettors looking for value, the Cubs are 69-63 for +15.5 units vs. St Louis since 2005……and 6-3 for +9.6 units as a +195 underdog or greater. As with most rivals; you can throw records out the window.
Tuesday
0-1-1 last night as Pittsburgh was tied late on with Cincinnati but ultimately lost and there was a miracle push in extras out in San Francisco after this amazing catch that would otherwise have been a 4-3 home win:
No MLB plays tonight as the games are very much home favorites across the board. I’m seriously considering dropping away teams from consideration entirely since my record in that group has been so poor (4-11 -5.39). In soccer, the Americans are at home versus Honduras tonight in Salt Lake City, but something feels a bit off about this game despite Honduras missing 4-5 starters. Not worth the -200 or more but feel free to make a small play if you’re feeling frisky. I also hear there is some kind of basketball game tonight, but I’m not familiar with this LeBron James fellow everyone seems to be going on about.
I have Wainwright and a bunch of Phillies and Dodgers in Day 2 of the daily fantasy league experiment. Micro stakes for the time being.
More tomorrow I am sure.
Monday
Still slow posting around here. I looked but could not find anything to play yesterday and was too indisposed to post as such. Our Saturday play on the Twins hit as Anibal Sanchez has shoulder issues and is likely headed to the DL. Two plays tonight, a road team which to date I have been terrible on this season, and a total where I’ve done well so far:
Pirates (Liriano) -101 @ Reds(Leake)
Dusty Baker is being friendly and trotting out another awful lineup today for the Reds. I am tempted to go U8 here as well, but the best I can get is -115 and I’m not thrilled about being on the public side. I don’t honestly know how much the public numbers matter on baseball totals, but I’ll be nitty here and just stay with the Pittsburgh play for now.
The total today is in San Francisco hosting San Diego with Volquez and Zito Under 8. Cold and humid weather expected and lots of regulars out for both teams tonight.
Highly unlikely to have any more plays today. I leave you with a video to prove that making fun of sports from different countries is always entertaining.
