And it was a Miracle Cover
I sucked at gambling yesterday, but ended up 2-1 thanks to the kinds of plays that this site was named after. Not only did I screw up and check the prior day’s lineups for Mets/Diamondbacks, both managers sent out all of their available reserves to start after Friday’s game ended after midnight with a day game to follow. Unsurprisingly, two offenses filled with backups left many potential runs on the board. This continued into extras tied 2-2 where Arizona got a run but should have had 2-3 more. Arizona got one run in the 13th and 14th innings, but were foiled by solo home runs by the Mets two worst hitters in the bottom half of each inning to win the over.
Detroit and Toronto was never close as Verlander found his groove and the Tigers won 11-0. Mujica blew a save for the Cardinals to get us the winning day. Nothing in soccer thankfully as there would have been only losers there.
I am not seeing anything in baseball today but will have a look again this afternoon.
EDIT: Found one! Houston (Harrell) @ Texas (Tepesch) OVER 9.5
Happy 4th
Short on time so I’ll get straight to the plays. Nothing to report from yesterday.
Detroit (Verlander) @ Toronto (Rodgers) +117
St. Louis (Wainwright) @ LA Angels (Blanton) +120
Arizona(Kennedy) @ Mets(Gee) OVER 8
Passing on MLS again today Dallas -250 is closest to a play.
Wednesday
2-1 in baseball last night as we saw how (somewhat) meaningless these line moves can be, or in other words that the game is played “on the field.” Mets were a winner after a close game was broken open in the 7th after a lengthy rain delay. I got +115 but the line moved back up to where it started around +126-130 in the hour before game time. Alternately, the other play last night on Oswalt and Colorado only dropped the entire day, which should be a good thing and closed around +125. The +141 didn’t matter as the Dodgers led the whole way and won 9-0. In totals, the under 8.5 just got there with the White Sox winning 5-3. It looked like an easy win until the 7th when Jason Hammel turned back into a pumpkin. He’s not been able to repeat last season at all as has an ERA around 5.00 again, meaning he’s the same pitcher he’s been his entire career. Related, after Roy Oswalt’s poor start with Colorado, it’s possible he’s finished being an effective major league starter. He stunk last year with the Rangers too, and it’s a little more than just pitching in hitters parks.
Lastly, Homer Bailey no-hit the Giants last night and it’s not the most surprising result. The Giants have been swinging the bats horribly of late and their pitching isn’t very good either. The bats will come around as they have 4-5 average to above hitters, but the rest are close to replacement level. This isn’t new to the Giants, but without an A pitching staff they are basically the same team as the Phillies, somewhere around or just below .500. The Phils aren’t making the playoffs this season and I don’t expect the Giants to either.
In baseball today I’m waiting on the Baltimore & White Sox total to go up but otherwise I didn’t see much to work with. On sides it’s probably Josh Johnson & Toronto or nothing.
In tennis, Del Potro was excellent this morning winning in straight sets. I’d like to get into tennis betting some more but will probably keep the volume and size very small going forward.
MLS, as previously mentioned, sucks for playing through all these international games. Most teams are missing 3-4 players out of their usual 18 and it’s harder than usual to sort out what’s what. I have a few leans but will probably pass on everything.
Updates later per usual.
UPDATE: I really want to take San Jose – Chicago draw but cannot bring myself to do it. Chicago will probably win 1-0. Nothing in baseball and I will post more about the Reds tomorrow. Happy 4th.
Tuesday
Nothing to report again yesterday, but there’s definitely some action today. Two confirmed plays so far:
Arizona (Corbin) @ Mets (Hefner) +115
LA Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Colorado (Oswalt) +141
Game-time decision on the White Sox-Baltimore under 8.5. It’s close but may end up being worth a play. In the other game of note today, Miami heads to Atlanta for a series with the Bravos. The Marlins won again last night at home to the Padres 4-0. They are playing like a legitimate baseball team and the +215 tonight is probably too high based on current form alone. This is a case of no one paying attention that a bad team is playing well, just like how the Giants lines haven’t moved much in the other direction despite their pitching being awful and the offense not doing much either. They are below .500 for the first time in a while.
The Natinals just got Bryce Harper back off the DL and won last night and are 6 or so games back of Atlanta in the NL East. While I don’t think they quite get there, I’ll be taking them in a future to win the East if I can find one.
In non-baseball, one bet I’m taking in Wimbledon for small, small dollars is Del Potro against Ferrer tomorrow, +135. MLS has an almost full slate Wednesday and Thursday so look for that tomorrow as well.
UPDATE: Baltimore/White Sox Under 8.5 -110
Canada Day
Known better as July 1 here, it’s a day where most Americans grumble about not being European and having 4-8 weeks of vacation in so many words. Seriously, how is it July already? No plays today on a usual abbreviated Monday. San Francisco would be a play but I am trying my best to kick out most of the away teams that pop up on my filters list as those have been losers in total. Home teams with the same criteria are winners and my totals are rare but awesome as previously mentioned.
11-10-1, +2.1 for July. 32-30-1, +6.04 for the season. In other season long MLB plays, I have Cleveland at +1000 to win the AL Central and they are currently tied with Detroit at the halfway point. Also have Oakland to win the AL West at +455 and the are half a game behind the Rangers. Lastly I have the Marlins Over 63 and they are off pace at 29-51 but have gone from around a zero percent chance to around 35-40% of covering that with their strongly improved play in June. These will all pay out roughly the same and one in three hitting will be roughly a push and two or three will make me more than just life winner.
In Over/Unders I might actually break .500 this year. My bottom 5 are all on pace, and the top 5 all have a chance as well, proving that “Confidence” scoring is really just a way to make you hate yourself instead.
Fantasy Update at some point this week.
Sunday
We don’t do anywhere near a good enough job actually documenting miracle covers when they happen, so I’m going to do so here. Had San Jose to win at “home” (the game was played at Stanford’s football stadium) and they were down a man and a goal after 90 minutes and somehow managed to end up with 3 points.
Our other play yesterday should have been a winner but was not as Toronto did everything but score and lost 1-0. So a 1-1 day but still on the plus side.
Nothing in baseball today. Oakland is the closest as Milone is ace-like at home.
Saturday
1-1 on baseball yesterday for a break even day. Boston led most of the way and Houston was tied with a chance to win but ultimately lost 4-2. Seattle, Oakland, Tampa and Minnesota are the shortlist today. First game of this bunch is at 4:00 EDT.
Two soccer plays in MLS today:
Salt Lake @ Toronto Draw +235
Los Angeles @ San Jose +173
Friday
Baseball screwed me over yesterday with their insistence on day games. I tend to get to gambling mid-day or later, depending on work, so these early start times are just opportunities lost. Yankees were up against a lefty in Derek Holland yesterday and again lost. Looking at the lineups it definitely would have been a play, though that’s easier to say after the result is in.
Tracking Boston, Tampa and Houston today and treating Houston like a professional team for better or worse. Updates in a few hours with any plays.
Have a Happy Friday.
UPDATE:
Two plays:
Toronto (Johnson) @ Boston (Webster) -109
Angels (Williams) @ Houston (Norris) +122
Thursday
Baseball is celebrating the end of school and taking a half day today, so there are fewer games to review than usual. Likely no plays per the numbers on any sides today. I’ll be keeping an eye on Texas at the Yankees to see if New York sends out another putrid lineup like they did last week against Matt Moore and Tampa. The line is already around -130 so that’s going to be difficult. Another potential play is in Kansas City where I loved the overnight over 8.5, though my craptastic book has already moved that to 9. Lastly, Arizona and Washington are showing at 6.5 on the total with Corbin and Strasburg going tonight. Strasburg’s lines are usually inflated because while he’s an excellent pitcher, he has trouble going deep into games. Washington has a good bullpen so it’s mitigated somewhat, but 6.5 is tough to bet under.
Confed Cup is the same as yesterday, no value on Spain-Italy but something to keep in mind is how terrible Buffon has looked in goal. Could be a sign for some over plays against different opponents if their defense remains this leaky. This game will tell us about the Italy defense because they are pretty punchless up front without Balotelli.
Updates later if anything pops up.
Wednesday
An ugly day in baseball reminded me why I’m treating the Astros and Marlins separately from the other 28 teams, something I had forgotten in the last few weeks with Miami’s over .500 play here in June. The Mariners also lost ugly, abruptly ending whatever winning streak was going on. That said, we had a rare total which was again a winner. 5-0-1 +5u on those and I wish there were more because the sides are now all of +1.04 for the season. Better than losing though and I think all but removing the away teams, which are 6-12 -4.04 will help. I think there is space for these plays when there is a good matchup and very solid plus odds, but the percentage of plays probably needs to be 80-90% on the home sides.
Not many leans today: KC, Tampa and Houston who we are mostly ignoring. Soccer today has Brazil and Uruguay in Confed cup, where I can’t see value on any side. The draw at +400 would be the closest to a play.
EDIT: Uruguay came close to pulling off a draw but ultimately lost as expected 2-1. Marlins won again today and are 9-6 since Stanton came back from the DL. They also went 5-15 to start the season with him playing so this is mostly small sample size, but their lineup isn’t anywhere near as terrible as it was a few months ago with Stanton and Morrison back instead of whatever schmos they were playing everyday instead. Miami’s pitching has been slightly above average and while they probably have too far to go to cover my 64 win proposition, they are looking more Mariners bad than Astros bad. Briefly on the Astros, they’ve allowed 405 runs after yesterday’s disaster, 40 more than the next closest teams and that’s only going to increase after they deal Bud Norris at the All-Star break.
Passing on KC tonight though it’s close. 50/50 proposition after the lineups came out but I’m looking for a line move toward the Royals or a better price to put down some dollars.
