The Worst Day of the Year
It’s about 100 degrees outside and there are zero major sporting events going on. 0-2 in minor plays yesterday and I’m debating whether to count them on my record for the season. I really, really want to take New England away to Colorado in MLS tonight, but I have a variable that is showing on my spreadsheet which is a big giant negative so I have to pass. There’s no baseball tomorrow either for anyone wondering because a few years ago some teams started bitching and moaning that they only got three days off while other teams got four, so now everyone starts again on Friday and the World Series ends in November. NFL win totals and futures are generally up everywhere, but I’ll leave that to Pat to cover as I haven’t read or looked at anything as I’ve been building all of these baseball and soccer models since January. And by models I mean spreadsheets because that’s how I roll.
All-Star Tuesday
A couple of small plays today to tide us over the All-Star break.
American League (Scherzer) @ National League (Harvey) OVER 8 -105
Costa Rica @ USA Over 2.5 EVEN
Some stats on the baseball season to date:
Total 42-37-1 +9.55u
April 9-7 +4.06
May 12-13 -0.12
June 11-10-1 +2.1
July 10-7 +3.51
Away Sides which I’ve all but eliminated going forward are 6-12 -4.04. Unless fading a particular lineup or starter, these won’t be used.
Home Sides are even for the year 25-25, but good for +2.59
Totals as ya’ll are aware are most of the profit to date, 11-0-1 +11u as these have all been at minus or even odds.
Soccer to date is 20-21 +5.68u. I leave you with a funny Luis Suarez commercial
All-Star Monday
We missed a loss yesterday with the line move I was bitching about causing a pass on the play entirely. Cole Hamels was much better and the game finished 4-3 in extras after a Papelbon blown save. I’m getting a play down today with the pitchers and lineup out for the All-Star game tomorrow OVER 8. There are rumors that Scherzer is nursing an injury and won’t be going full speed. This is normally countered by starting pitchers throwing much faster than normal since they are only going one inning. Regardless, I’ll go over here for half a unit since it’s a fake game.
I’m debating hedging some of my futures out, but the amounts are relatively small, so it’s not really worth doing. I may change my mind at some point.
Sunday
1-2 in soccer yesterday as we were foiled by a Portland goal late in stoppage time to ruin a 1-1 draw and send the home fans happy. Montreal got shelled 4-0 as they did not park the minivan correctly and Salt Lake proved they are the deepest team in the league, missing five starters but winning away 3-0.
No sides in baseball, but our under came in easily.
No plays to report today. Happy Bastille Day.
EDIT: One play to add: White Sox (Quintana) @ Phillies (Hamels) O7.5 -110
EDIT2: Bookmaker just cancelled my play and moved the line to 8 and -110. Fuck them.
Saturday
Winning on totals and losing on sides again yesterday as has been the case all month. Due for a pretty decent downswing here eventually. One total today:
Boston (Lester) @ Oakland (Griffin) UNDER 8 EVEN
No sides as of now but a small chance of getting either Atlanta (Minor)or Seattle(Felix) both with excellent pitchers going today.
MLS is ugly this week. Lots of players out all over the place between injuries, suspensions and the awful competition that is the Gold Cup. Three plays however:
Montreal @ New York UNDER 2.5 +111
Salt Lake PK and +0.5 +120 @ Dallas
Los Angeles @ Portland DRAW +249
Friday
1-1 yesterday as Edwin Jackson was great for the Cubs but the Eraser wasn’t so great for the Mariners and their much-improved offense as we lost the coinflip late. Taking the Cubs again today with the following:
Cardinals (Kelly) @ Cubs (Villanueva) +104
Nothing else is anywhere close at the moment so I expect this will be it for the day.
Both unders I considered came in yesterday and I would have played the Cubs Cardinals under had I been available yesterday afternoon. I’m going to start tracking these leans daily and playing them at micro stakes. Would like to get these totals where the volume is approaching or somewhat exceeding the sides. The Bookmaker issue is that they practically all have -110 or more juice making these dicey long-term. That said, as I was telling Pat last weekend, there is a non-zero chance I am onto something here.
Kansas City @ Cleveland UNDER 8.5 -110
Minnesota @ Yankees UNDER 8 EVEN or UNDER 8.5 -125
One more that is a lean even under this system is dicey is Texas @ Detroit UNDER 9.5 -120
More tomorrow.
Thursday
Day games did not defeat me today, at least not yet. Nothing yesterday though I probably should have taken the overs I talked about because they were both winners. Some more close ones I will get to below. Two plays though today to confirm:
Boston (Dempster) @ Seattle (Ramirez) +115
St. Louis (Westbrook) @ Cubs (Jackson) +116
Phillies and Padres are on the shortlist to review later. I would like to play Toronto & Cleveland Under 8.5 but only have the option at -120, so that’s a pass. Cubs/Cardinals is also a potential under 8.5 but we will wait on lineups and wind conditions for that one.
Wednesday
Day games got the better of me today, where Miami’s line moved just to where it should be for a play and they lead Atlanta early 4-1. Nothing yesterday to report. HOU/STL Over 7.5 or 8 and BOS/SEA Over 8 are close today though my public numbers are showing a significant percentage on the BOS/SEA over. The public numbers aren’t much of an indicator on MLB totals because there’s just not enough action and most end up with less than 60% on either side. That said, if your only gambling rule was to avoid the public at all costs you’d probably be in the 80th percentile on that alone. Seattle has a much improved offense with their recent callups and I have been looking to take their over action because of this, so we will see.
Nothing doing in Gold Cup action either. With the ‘B’ lineups for the US & Mexico and no other top ranked teams participating, it’s a pretty blah tournament and I haven’t watched more than a few minutes. Martinique, the island not the stripper, earned a 0-0 draw with Canada the other day and were the better team throughout. Belize, who is US beat 6-1 last night, is openly soliciting donations to pay for their trip. I passed on the -2000 on the US in that one.
Updates later per usual if anything develops.
Tuesday
Two losers yesterday though both games were close. Miami ultimately lost in 14 and their bullpen held the Braves hitless for 7 straight innings before conceding 6 in the top of the 14th. The White Sox were tied through seven but lost 4-2.
Only option today is Milwaukee and the line is 9-10 points off of Pinnacle, so no play for me. Nothing on totals either.
Monday
One winner and one loser yesterday as Mendoza got chased in the 2nd and Kansas City were never in the game after that. Chivas parked the minivan as expected in Montreal and managed a 1-1 draw, covering our 2.5 and 3 under.
No soccer bets on the Gold Cup which started yesterday as I can’t find any public betting numbers to go off of. As learned earlier, it’s flying blind without having this at minimum. I also can’t claim to be an expert on the Hatian national team.
Two plays so far in baseball today:
Atlanta (Minor) @ Miami (Slowey) +145
Cubs (Garza) @ White Sox (Santiago) -105
Totals and any updates later this afternoon/evening.
