NCAA Football Totals
I’m debating betting college football this season and am currently dabbling in building some college football models and backtesting a couple of data sets against my spiffy excel sheet with lots of tabs. Before any of you ask, I’m not actually going to watch any of these games, but I’m guessing line moves and something similar to what I have for baseball will work for college football. That said, my knowledge is approximately zero on any of these teams, so this would be strictly a math and line movement model and thus weaker than what I have for baseball. I say approximately zero knowledge because I did read a bunch of team previews last week and felt inspired enough to make the season bets below. I won a medium sized bet on Stanford a couple of years ago, but they are the only team I’ve watched (other than their opponents) in maybe three years. I’ll be happy if these turn a small profit.
Top Teams, Small Dollars
Alabama Over 11 -110
Oregon Over 10.5 -150
Worse Teams, Medium Dollars
Auburn Under 7 -150
Cincinnati Over 8.5 -135
Kansas Under 4 -130
Thursday
Sloppy gambling yesterday as the Cubs were nowhere near winning but the Yankees won easily in a game we passed on. I took the Cubs under for the picks contest which was a winner and obviously a much better play. Will try and do better today. Two leans on totals, Over 7.5 in Oakland and Under 8 in Detroit. On sides Toronto and San Diego are the only options. Updates per usual if I decide to play any of these.
UPDATE: One play tonight: Boston (Peavy) @ Toronto (Buehrle) +109
Wednesday
Squeaked out a winner yesterday in the 5-hour affair that was Pirates-Cardinals extra innings. First Starling Marte dropped a routine fly ball up 3-2 in the 9th that led to extra innings, then Mike Matheny failing to understand his batting order and what double switches are meant to accomplish, ended up with no batters remaining and Seth Maness batting cleanup behind Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig. In the 11th with runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, Matheny allowed Maness to swing and the Pirates turned a 6-9-3 double play with five infielders playing in to get out of the inning. In the 13th, Matt Carpenter doubled with two outs and the Pirates promptly walked both Beltran and Craig to bring up Maness again who struck out. Despite the mismanagement, the Cardinals scraped together a run in the 14th to win 4-3.
I thought today was going to be rather slow, but there is a play already in the day games:
Reds (Arroyo) @ Cubs (Rusin) +116
I am busy at work today but will update with any plays before the night games at 7.
UPDATE: Cubs lost 5-0. Obviously should have taken the under as I did in the picks contest. Nothing doing tonight, Yankees are closest but I’d need a slightly better price.
Tuesday
1-1 again yesterday, this time for a micro loss. Sox were a relatively easy winner but our over was never close. Andrew Albers for the Twins has opened his MLB career 2-0 with 17.1 innings pitched and a 0.00 ERA. Only six hits allowed in the two games and one walk. You can read about him here. One play for ya’ll today:
Pittsburgh (Morton) @ St. Louis (Wainwright) Under 7.5 -120
Monday
1-1 yesterday for a miniscule profit. Two more plays today:
Cleveland (Salazar) @ Minnesota (Albers) Over 8 -110
Detroit (Fister) @ White Sox (Sale) +106
Sunday
1-1 across a two sports yesterday as soccer has hit a downswing while baseball plays keep doing well. No totals again today and no plays so far either, though SF, Colorado and Toronto are the options today in that order.
Updates when available but this may be an empty day.
UPDATE: Baltimore (Norris) @ San Francisco (Cain) -111
Pittsburgh (Locke) @ Colorado (Bettis) +125
Saturday
2-2 yesterday though not without some drama as the Yankees and Rivera blew a save in the 9th on a Miguel Cabrera home run but ended up winning in 10. Seattle-Milwaukee over did end up as a play but I did not get it posted here other than for the picks contest being out & about last night. Yankees-Tigers Over 8.5 for the contest today and while it’s very close I will pass on it for a play and there are no other totals of note.
One play however in MLB:
Pittsburgh (Burnett) @ Colorado (Nicasio) +125
Also one MLS play today:
Seattle (Dempsey) @ Toronto (No one good) Even and +0.5 -104
Friday
Good job passing on some plays yesterday as they both the Cardinals and the Mets over turned out to be losers. Our picks contest play won however, and is up to 5 in a row for the 4th time this season. Have yet to make 6 though, so take the under on Mariners/Brewers if you’re subscribing to the pattern. The Over 7.5 is a close play there but needs lineups that haven’t been released. Two actual plays today though:
Phillies (Lannan) @ Natinals (Haren) Over 7.5 -115
Tigers (Porcello) @ Yankees (Nova) -101
Any late updates to be posted per usual.
Thursday
Light schedule today in MLB. 2-2 yesterday which was close to the expected outcome with three one-run games and a bullpen blowup by the Padres turning a close game into a rout. Not much available today. Cubs/Phillies over 9 is close and I have it in the picks contest but not as a play. Rockies/Mets Over 7.5 is another close one but the lineups for both sides are too poor despite every other variable showing as an over. The only actual play if it happens today will be the Cardinals hosting the Dodgers. Carlos Martinez is called up to make the start today against Ryu after Shelby Miller had to leave in the first inning and Jake Westbrook was shelled in a long relief outing yesterday.
6-5 +1.04 for August, 57-47-1 +14.69 season
Wednesday
2-1 last night as the White Sox and Baltimore were low scoring winners, but Houston lost 15-10 after scoring seven through four. With the Astros pitching, no lead is ever safe. The Yankees-White Sox series is turning out to be a perfect storm of gambling as not only is the public line heavy on the Yankees, Chicago currently has four lefties in their rotation and the Yankees are somewhere in the bottom 4-5 teams against left handed pitching. Taking Chicago again today along with three other games. No totals today but there should be enough action with this group:
Yankees (Sabathia) @ White Sox (Santiago) -110
Baltimore (Gonzalez) @ San Diego (Stults) +110
Detroit (Fister) @ Cleveland (Salazar) EVEN
Tampa (Archer) @ Arizona (Delgado) +111
