Tuesday
More winning yesterday for those who were following along. Carolina won by four in a game I thought had a very good chance of ending in a tie or least least going to OT last night and our hockey play was a winner as Calgary won in a shootout despite conceding an equalizer with six seconds remaining in Winnipeg. No plays in the NHL tonight despite some promising early numbers.
One total in college hoops in a contender for whitest game of the season so far:
North Dakota/Wisconsin UNDER 140
One fake play that will probably lose:
Rhode Island +23
NFL Plays
For the record, these were my Week 11 picks. As we shall I am developing a hard-on for 2nd half bets. For anyone who has not experienced this you should do yourself a favor and sit in a Vegas casino as these lines are posted. You will never see crazy line fluctuations in your life like these. A line will start as a pick ’em and move to someone being a 3 point favorite in a minute…
Ravens +3 +113 @ 14
Raiders +10 +100 @ 14
Browns/Bengals Under 40 -110 @ 16
Ravens/Bears Under 40.5 -105 @ 14
Redskins +5 -108 @ 14
Redskins ML +120 @ 14
Browns -.5 -110 @ 15
Steelers ML +121 @ 14
4:00
San Diego @ Miami Over 44.5 -110 @ 17
Packers @ NY Giants ML -177 @ 66
Late Game
First score of game Non-TD +153 @ 22 (Obv)
MNF
Panthers -3 -110 @ 22
If you have been playing my action you are up somewhere like +125 Units for the month. Just saying. And yes, thats a bullshit thing to say when posting picks 2 days late
Monday
Fun day yesterday with lots of winners, hope some of you were able to follow along. Only the late, late play on Minnesota and teaser were losers thanks to the Falcons getting back to their heritage and losing horribly at home for no real reason at all. I doubled up on the Miami play and long time readers know that the Chargers are my 2nd favorite team to bet against (Dallas being #1) so that was an added bonus.
One NFL game tonight and Carolina is the side to be on. The line unfortunately won’t be moving off of 3, so I will most likely pass, but the game opened at 1 and anything up to 2.5 would be good value. Not a guarantee by any stretch, but at the very least there is no compelling reason to take New England.
There should be at least one and maybe even two hockey games tonight. I’ll update later in the evening. Season totals below…
Tracking plays in NCAA hoops are down to 0-2-2 -2.2
NCAA Hoops Totals are 2-0 +2.0 Those are real plays, albeit not for a whole lot relative to the other sports.
NCAA Football: 7-8 -1.37
NFL Teasers 1-3 -2.6
NHL 8-7 +4.01
NFL: 10-5 +5.31
EDIT: Calgary is the only hockey play tonight Flames +135
Sunday Funday
Two winners yesterday as Miss St. and the basketball under both easily covered and a push again on the tracking basketball play.
Lots of NFL plays today:
Miami +2.5 (Adding onto Miami +1 from yesterday)
Buffalo +2.5
Pittsburgh +3
Bookmaker garbage teaser: ATL +8.5, Buffalo +8.5, Denver -1.5
College Hoops:
Stony Brook +12.5
Michigan/Iowa State Under 148
NHL:
Columbus +145 @ Ottawa
UPDATE: NFL Minnesota +13
Saturday
Just waking up and there are games starting already. This must be what it feels like to live on the west coast.
College football: Probably no plays for me today. I am tempted by Louisville & Miss. St but don’t like the Bookmaker lines per usual.
EDIT: Taking Miss. St. +24 -112
College hoops: Florida Atlantic was a close loser yesterday losing by 33. One more fake play today, St. Joseph’s +4
BONUS: A real play! OSU/Marquette Under 144
NHL: Edmonton will be a play depending on where the public number ends up. 10:00 East coast time to I’ll update or not later tonight.
NFL: There will be plays tomorrow, and I’ve already got some action down on Miami+1 and Miami EVEN as that’s definitely the best play of the week.
Weekend Picks
NFL:
Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)
Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)
Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)
Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)
I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins. But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.
UFC:
Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250
Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:
NCAA Plays
As always, I will likely to be adding to these throughout the day. Our Indiana over pick is in dire straits. They are going to beat Illinois to finish the season, which gives them 5, but to hit 6 they are going to have to beat either Wisconsin (slim) or Ohio St (none). I know there is nothing they like better at a school like Wisconsin then to cover the spread, I know IU is missing their best running back, I know the defense couldn’t tackle a 2nd grade math assignment. Let’s call this going down with the ship.
Indiana +27 -112 @ 19
In other plays, Florida St, at some point this season has to not cover a spread. They have been demolishing it consistently. You could almost see the point in the Miami game where they hit it and everyone on the Seminole sideline who knows whats up leaned back and smiled.
Syracuse +37.5 -109 @ 17
What is more embarrassing, letting someone borrow your computer and seeing a horrific stream of porn search queries or a series of search queries headed by “akron umass preview?” As I said, likely more picks to follow.
Friday
We bet and/or didn’t bet on a bunch of pushes and coin flips yesterday. Indy Miracle Covered or Miracle Pushed depending on your line. I ended up passing but my comments make me look smart so I’ll try not to get injured patting myself on the back. William and Mary pushed on +17, scoring only a single point in the last four minutes. Columbus lost to Boston in overtime and Tulsa covered losing by 11.
More nothingness in hockey tonight, and there’s nothing particularly close either with the public numbers just not lining up with what I like to see. One tracking play in hoops and it’s Florida Atlantic +31 at Duke. We’re 0-0-1 to start the season but unlike the NHL, we don’t get any loser points. I’m hoping for a push again tonight.
Amateur football and other things tomorrow.
Thursday
I’m still under the weather, so pardon more than the usual lack of cohesion…
NFL tonight is Colts @ Titans. Everyone is on Indy by a 4.5:1 ratio, but the line has moved around quite a bit this week between TEN +1 and TEN +3. It’s currently at 2.5. If I can find 3 I’ll take Tennessee, but if not I will pass. I could be convinced to take the Titans in a smaller play and/or in any picks contests should they be available.
NHL has one game that is on the fence that I’m going to play and that’s Columbus +155 @ Boston. I would prefer the total to be 5.5 instead of 5, but that’s never going to happen with Boston’s league best defense, but I will let the 13% public betting number and reverse line move take priority here. Plus we haven’t had a play in nearly a week.
“Amateur” College Football, I would take Tulsa tonight at 14 but not 13.5 or 13. Not going to stick around withing on the line to move on that.
Lastly, College Basketball, I don’t know how to bet these but I will track my plays here as best I can. One to start with tonight, William & Mary +17
Good luck out there.
Wednesday
Not much doing for me the past week. Kudos to Pat for running the liveblog for an impressive 24 hours. I will attempt to get in on betting basketball at some point. My current spreadsheet model is pretty garbage and I’m having a hard time getting old point spread data imported, so anything for now is going to be testing more than anything else.
In housekeeping, NFL and NCAA turned out to be mediocre after winners all around on Thursday and our NHL play was a loser as well. There were no hockey plays on Monday or Tuesday, and none again today despite all the teams being in action.
NFL 7-4 +1.91
NFL Teasers 1-2 -1.2
NCAA 6-8 -2.37
NHL 7-6 +3.56
