Thursday
Nothing doing yesterday but our leaner on the Islanders lost 2-1. Getting plays in early tonight:
NHL: Florida +138 @ Toronto. Adventurous folks can try Montreal +175 @ Boston but I will not be joining you.
NBA: To be confirmed, but likely Cleveland +6 @ the Knicks who I continue to fade.
Wednesday
Mixed day again yesterday for us as Boston was covering at 6.5 for about 30 seconds getting blown out in New York, but Nashville was a winner making hard work out of what should have been a straightforward win. Our leaners in Minnesota and Indiana both won so good for you if you played them.
Nothing doing in the NBA tonight as the Josh Smith reunion was cancelled in Atlanta due to snow/ice/cold/incompetence. Hockey is outdoors again at Yankee Stadium and I am passing but would take the Islanders if forced.
Soccer
The most interesting game of the day is Tottenham at home to Man City. The power of Gambling Christ compels me to bet Tottenham based solely on their odds. At 3 to 1 to win at home, I have to make a small bet, and at essentially even money on a draw or better, the play has to be made. They are simply playing too well, I have to almost ignore Man City’s great form. Logic would dictate that if you are going to bet Tott you may as well bet the over because Man City will likely get theirs. I will pass on this play but I think it is a decent one. Let’s take a peak at other lines…I am surprised at how decent a favorite Sunderland is but I will pass. What intrigues me is West Ham getting 2 goals with a healthy Andy Carroll and Villa.
Tott ML +309 @ 9
Tott + .5 -101 @ 14
West Ham +2 +107 @ 14
Aston Villa ML +152 @ 14
YTD : -34.05
***UPDATE*** As Louis is a bookie/Villa fan we are nixing the Villa bet. It will not be counted YTD
Tuesday
0-0 yesterday and while that’s not terrible, in fact it’s downright breakeven, we can do better.
NHL Nashville +120 @ Winnipeg. Minnesota +180 is an option for those who want to gambooooool, but I am 100% passing.
NBA Celtics +6.5 @ Knicks. Indiana -10 is close at the Lakers but probably a pass. We will see. 10:30 tip there.
Monday
Nothing doing in NBA or NHL. I am dropping college hoops for the rest of the season as I can’t keep up with the number of games without a tool to keep me from running things manually. Also a correction from yesterday, despite jotting down half a unit I played a full 1u on Florida yesterday and was rewarded with a shootout win. Phoenix was a loser in overtime so a slight win or loss depending on how you played it. I despise the shootout in the NHL on sporting grounds, but it’s wonderful for gambling purposes.
See ya’ll tomorrow.
Back from Hiatus
Unannounced and unplanned. We missed a lot of winners as best I can tell. Getting back started with hockey this afternoon/evening:
Florida +140 @ Detroit 1/2u
Phoenix +125 @ Vancouver
Plays 1/26
Any plays today @ 13.
Utah +14 -101 @ Arizona.
The thinking on this one. It seems the key in terms of simply achieving competitiveness against Arizona is to rebound, rebound, rebound. And that is one thing Utah can do. If you read the scouting reports it sounds like the ideal team to face Arizona would have 2 college versions of Ben Wallace, there simply to defend, rebound, and perhaps more importantly, kick out to a group of wing players that can all shoot. Utah has parts of this equation down, hopefully close enough for a cover.
California +7 -105 @ UCLA
Outside of Arizona I think Cal may be the best team in the Pac-12. And this line doesn’t quite reflect that. If this were 4.5 or 5, Sobe green tea it, but it isn’t, probably because so much public money flies in for UCLA regardless. I see this as a close game that Cal could very well sneak away with in the last minute.
YTD : -33.92
UFC on FOX 10
Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens vs Darren Elkins Under Rounds 1.5 @ +155
Sergio “The Phenom” Pettis wins by Inside Distance +185
Darren “The Detroit Superstar” Cruckshank vs Mike “The Wolverine” Rio Fight Goes Distance +190
Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga to win +200
Benson “Smooth” Henderson -300
I also think Pat Darts got drunk in the Mr.Met costume:
Plays 1/25
I will likely be adding on to this as the evening wears on.
St Johns +3.5 -112 @ Butler @ 13
YTD : -45.53
Plays 1/24
I say plays but I only have one at the moment, possibly more as the evening progresses.
Capitals/Devils Under 5 -106 @ 13
The Devils (for the most part) do not score or yield a ton of goals. Ovechkin is the only Capital at the moment worth a damn offensively. In other news, I am happy to report that the 6 goal over/under line is an actual thing, there were two the other night. This corresponds with what seems like a slight uptick in goals recently. I am a bit behind but I have been tracking lines for the last month or so and there has been a heavy barrage in what I will call BTOs or Big Time Overs. Those are overs that crush the line. On the days of 1/18, 1/19, and 1/21 ( I was hungover as balls on 1/20) there were 11 BTOs by my standards* and only 2 BTUs (ha! BTUs). One wonders if it has anything to do with this quote…
” The league is screaming for goals and all of a sudden, I don’t know how you can kick it and try to stop at the same time,” Sabres interim head coach Ted Nolan said.
That quote happened after a game where someone had a goal disallowed for kicking it into the net. The only thing we are concerned with is that it seems the NHL, like it has often in the past, is making a concerted effort to increase scoring. Something to think of moving forward maybe.
* Big Time Whatevers are when the final score differs from the line by 1.5 goals or more. As when the line is 5.5 and the final score ends up being either 4-3 (BTO) or 3-0 (BTU).
YTD : -57.79
***UPDATE***
I am not going to touch it but the Thunder/Celts game has moved 3 points in roughly .3 seconds since Durant has been ruled out. This should honestly be a measure of MVP credibility, how much does the line plummet when you are unexpectedly yanked from a lineup hours before a game. It’d be great if for some players like 2014 JR Smith where the line moves backwards.
