Super Bowl LVI
Bengals +4.5
I think this will be a close game in what has been a 2021-2022 NFL playoff full of close games. I also think Cincinnati has the better quarterback and can overcome some of the deficiencies (O-Line, offense red zone efficiency) because the Rams’ one flaw that keeps coming up is how they let teams back in games due to their shake strong armed QB (Stafford) and hteir coach who loves to set timeouts on fire (both of these guys do, its vexing). I also see Joe Mixon having a good game as the Bengals will try to slow that pass rush of the Rams down with runs and screens.
No real opinion on OVER/UNDER it’s about right; I do think the @H will have the majority of the scoring in the game as it will be hot in LA and the stadium isn’t domed so fatigue maybe an issue.
But now to the more important part…the PROPS:
Rams:
Matthew Stafford Longest Play 38.5 OVER -130
Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 9 -108
Cam Akers Carries OVER 15.5 +100
First Punt Distance Johnny Hekker OVER 46.5 -110
Cooper Kupp to have 100+ Receiving Yards , 6+ Receptions and LAR to Win -150
Total Sacks – Leonard Floyd OVER 0.5 +110
Bengals:
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards OVER 60.5 -115
Joe Mixon Receptions OVER 3.5 -156
Joe Mixon MVP +2500
Joe Mixon Touchdowns OVER 1 +100
Samaje Perine Receptions OVER 1.5 -120
Joe Burrow Completions OVER 24.5 -118
Joe Burrow MVP +255
Tee Higgins More Yards than Odell Beckham Jr -130
Who will Record the First Interception in the Game – Jessie Bates +750
CIN Total FG OVER 1.5 -208
Evan McPherson Kicking Points OVER 7.5 -149
Random Props:
Opening kickoff to be touchback – YES +108
Will there be a safety – YES +800
Lowest Scoring Quarter – 1st Quarter +210
Bengals First play – PASS +110
First TD Scorer: Joe Mixon +800, Cam Akers +800
Will either kicker hit the upright or crossbar on a missed field goal or extra point attempt? – YES +375
NFL Championship Sunday
Bengals +7.5*
UNDER 54.5
Around 60-65% of the money is on KC at most books (some do have CIN at around 55%). Once line got to 7.5, I had to jump in and it’s now back at 7. I just feel like this will be a close and tight game, and in a year of big upsets and spreads being covered, and Kansas City’s ability to keep teams in games, I feel Cincy has a chance to keep it close and even potentially snip one here. For props, I like: Evan McPherson points OVER 7 -130, Frank Clark OVER 0.5 sacks -105, Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards OVER 28.5 -115, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards OVER 62.5 -110, First TD: C.J. Uzomah +1400 and Bryon Pringle +1400.
49ers +3.5*
OVER 45.5*
Doubling down on the 49ers +1200 NFC bet in what should be a home game for them. I am more certain of points however as both teams have a tendency to make, and give up, big plays (and hilarious fails). The 49ers actually lead the NFL in DPI, and the referees for this game are the nittiest refs in the NFL, so I also like penalties accepted OVER 11.5 -110. For other props, I like: Cam Akers TD Over 0.5 +105, Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards OVER 39.5 -115, Robbie Gould Points OVER 6.5 -130, First Score Method – FG +150, Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards OVER 50 -110, Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards OVER 28.5 -115, Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards UNDER 104.5 -110.
DFS:
BOS at DAL OVER 5.5 -110
NFL Divisional Sunday
Rams +3*
OVER 48
I hate taking Stafford in a playoff game over Tom Brady, but the Rams are a bad matchup for the Bucs. Brady also loses his all star left tackle Tristan Wirfs which should be a benefit to Aaron Donald and Von Miller pass rush. Cooper Kupp has averaged 9 completions, 104 yards, and 1.5 TDs in his last two meetings with Tampa; I am taking Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 8.5 EVEN, as well as Matt Gay OVER Kicking points 6.5 -120, and Tyler Higbee Anytime TD +250.
Bills +2.5*
OVER 54.5
Now at Bills +1. The Bills have been on fire, and should plan to keep moving the ball vs an average at best KC defense. KC comes into the game somewhat banged up; I can see the Bills getting a lead like last year but holding on for dear life at the end. The key for them” Devin Singletary. If he can get 100+ yards on the ground, along with Allen’s usual 50, that should be a key for success in helping keep Mahomes off the field. For props, I am taking Devin Singletary OVER rushing yards 62.5 -115 and First TD Scorer +800, Josh Allen OVER rushing yards 54.5 -120 and First TD Scorer +700, Patrick Mahomes INT OVER 0.5 -125, Jerick McKinnon OVER Receptions 4 +141, and Kelce Anytime TD EVEN.
TEASER: Bills +1 & Rams v Bucs OVER 48 -115
NHL BONUS: NJ Devils ML +115
NFL Divisional Saturday
My plays = *
Titans -4
OVER 47.5 (-115)*
This was a tough one to pick; hell all of these games this weekend are tough to pick. I do think there will be points in this game; these teams have good offenses, especially with TEN getting Derrick Henry back. I am also taking as a prop Titans TE Anthony Firkser OVER 19.5 as I think TEN tries to establish the play action game early as CIN will probably have 8 guys in the box to stop the run.
SF +6*
UNDER 47
Going to be a cold one in Lambeau today… I actually think this favors the 49ers as passing gets harder on stiff grass and the Green Bay run defense isn’t great to begin with. I hate betting Jimmy G vs Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game, but it’s not like Aaron Rodgers has this amazing playoff record; he’s 7-8 since winning the Super Bowl in 2010 and 0-3 vs the 49ers. I can see Green Bay winning on a late drive FG quite honestly after a Jimmy G or Kyle Shanahan administrative fuckup. I am taking the Packers 23, 49ers 20 exacta at +20000 and OVER FG 1.5 for San Francisco at -105.
TEASER: TEN at CIN OVER 47.5 + SF at GB UNDER 47 + BUF +1.5 @ +150
DFS for the weekend:
UFC 270 BONUS:
Cyril Gane wins by points +250
Michel Pereira -270
NFL Wild Card Sunday + Monday
Any line a *, I am betting.
Tampa Bay -7.5* -105
OVER 47
Despite their injuries and the hilariousness of Antonio Brown’s “peace out” exit, Tampa is a bad matchup for the Eagles just due to both the Eagles players, and Eagles’ coaching, inexperience in this road game for them. Brady loses RB Leonard Fournette, but the Bucs get back LB LeVontae David today, which will be key for shutting down the mesh attack of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. We like the Eagles as a young team, and they for sure have a chance to win the division next year if they beef up some key areas of need (RB, OL, WR, and LB), they are just a year early. I also like Gronkowski to be the First TD Scorer +550 and Scott Miller Anytime TD +500. #snowleopard
SF +3.5* -110
OVER 51* -105
Started at -4.5, now at SF -3. Lou and I actually like the 49ers as our longshot conference winner pick at +1200. We feel there is value there if we combine the fact they’ll be dogs in all 3 of their matchups, the MLs combining to a total of +750 to +850. SF is getting healthy at the right time, especially on offense (Mitchell, Samuel, Kittle). Their secondary blows, and their special teams is…not special. But a healthy 49ers offense with the brilliant Kyle Shanahan scheme will always be a huge threat. Dallas’ offense came in limping into the end of the season, and their defense is overrated (despite stars like Diggs and Parsons) because of all the crap teams they played, especially in their division. If Joe Judge is in your division; you should have a top 5 scoring defense. But they’ve also given up 31 points to the crappy Broncos. I can see this game going from 7-3 in the 2nd quarter going to 27-27 by the end of the game, because of both of these teams’ ability to score, and give up, big plays. There will also be a huge SF crowd and this will feel like a neutral site game. The variable is the QBs; both have been as inconsistent as the CDC’s policies on COVID-19. Also like this game going into OT +850.
Kansas City -12.5
OVER 46
The Steelers shouldn’t even be here. The Chiefs may let them hang around for a little, but they should win an easy game against this crappy team that I somehow hit the OVER with despite a fat aging QB and a banged up secondary. I like Tyreek Hill UNDER 68.5 receiving yards -120 because he was hobbling around all last game, and if KC gets up big early, they will rest him for next week. I also like Harrison Butker Kicking Points OVER 8.5 -115.
Arizona +4*
UNDER 50* -120
Now at Arizona +3. Let’s be clear: we do not like Arizona. They limped into the playoffs just as bad as the Rams did; but Arizona plays better on the road (IRL and ATS), they get WR Nuk Hopkins back, and in this 3rd division game, you can just see it being a rock fight. Plus, it’s stupidly being played on Monday Night, so just for that, we deserve a crappy game. I did not like the way the Rams played, quarterbacked, or coached their last game vs SF and it really went to show all of their flaws we pointed out to before the year where, on our preview pod, we summarized the Rams being a talented playoff team but their depth being so top heavy… that they are a great candidate to bet against in the playoffs. Also, Arizona probably has more fans than LA in this game; Stafford’s wife is already pleading LA fans to not sell their tickets to Arizona fans. Lady, the Arizona fans can literally just go up to the ticket counter at SoFi on gameday and buy one. Hardly no one in LA gives a fuck about the Rams, minus a few lifers here and there from the Eric Dickerson/Jackie Slater days.
Sunday Games DFS:
NFL Wild Card Saturday
It’s that time of year…playoffs! We weren’t able to do a preview pod but hopefully able to get one in next week. Lou and I did have a chat so I can forward along some of his thoughts in my picks below. As always, we have a goal each year to go undefeated against the spread. I am also doing a $30 pick’em pool for both lines and totals, so I will give each pick for each game, and put a * for every game I am also betting individually. So here we go!
Raiders +6*
UNDER 49
Line has gone to +5.5… these two teams played a close, low scoring game in Vegas in November. The Raiders match up well vs the Bengals: they can run the ball and they can rush the passer as the Bengals run defense is meh and their offensive line blows. They also have Darren Waller back. That being said, I have no idea who WINS this game because the Raiders’ secondary blows and Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Jamar Chase have been one of the best offenses in December. This will be a 3 point game, and I think it’s one of the two games of the weekend that could to go to OT. also, because its Raiders vs Bengals, two franchises mired in modern failure… I am also taking the “Will there be a safety?- YES” prop at +1000.
Buffalo -4
UNDER 44
Now Bills -5. It will be cold and maybe snowy and you’d think that would favor New England like in the windy MNF game in November. The Patriots ended the season losing 3 of 4, they don’t have a WR1 or WR2, they have a rookie QB on the road (a rookie QB has never won a playoff game), and their defense is overrated. In the last meeting in Foxboro, NE DEF was 2-11 stopping 3rd/4th downs vs the Bills (and one of those “stops” was Emmanuel Sanders just dropping the ball). The Patriots should be able to run the ball against a smallish Bills team, but once they get behind in points… the Bills have too much firepower on the outside with the emergence of Isiah McKenzie and Gabriel Davis, and Devin Singletary has run the ball better in the last few weeks. Usually liking the UNDER would mean the Patriots have a chance to win; but these 3rd division games tend to be close; I can see Belichick and company keeping it close in the 1H (and there I am taking Patriots 1H +3)… until the Bills’ superior offense pulls away in the 2nd half. For props, I also like Josh Allen OVER rushing yards 45 at -150.
NHL BONUS:
Nashville +135
PARLAY +350: NSH ML +135 + DET ML -180 + COL ML -420
Week 18 NFL Propapalooza
Last week of the year… which means players need stats to hit their incentives or to break records. We’re taking props today, all OVER, to hopefully cash in as the players do, as these teams will go out of their way to hit these incentives (i.e. last year, Seattle called a couple of shovel passes in a row to get a wide receiver his receptions total in a meaningless game).
PROPS:
Rex Burkhead OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards -114; AT LEAST 72 Yards +173
Also looking for receiving yards OVER bets. He needs 105 total yards to hit a $250k bonus.
Tyler Lockett AT LEAST 2 TDs +900
Lockett needs two touchdowns to hit a $1 million bonus.
Cooper Kupp to have AT LEAST 136 Receiving Yards and 12 Receptions +150; AT LEAST 100 Yards + TD @ +100
Kupp going for all kinds of things, and LA is playing for the division title. He needs 12 receptions to set the all-time record for receptions in a season, and 136 yards to beat Calvin’ Johnson’s all-time mark. He’s also in line to win the wide receiver triple crown, and if he gets something like 200 yards and 2+ TDs today, he might win the MVP. He should be the MVP, IMO… and he’s probably 1-2 more seasons away from being the greatest Snow Leopard of all time.
Kyle Pitts OVER Receiving Yards 61.5 -119
Pitts needs 59 yards to break Mike Ditka’s rookie TE receiving yards mark.
Parlay @ -195: Stefon Diggs AT LEAST 6 Receptions (-333) + Marvin Jones AT LEAST 4 Receptions (-333)
Their individual lines were high, so I just combined them in a parlay to bring it down, as both will most likely be hit. Diggs needs 6 receptions for $1.2 million vs the lowly Jets, while Marvin Jones gets $500k for having at least 4 receptions in a game vs the Colts he probably plays all game in. He averages 4.1 catches per game this season.
T.J. Watt 1.5 Sacks OVER -180
Watt needs 2 sacks to break Michael Strahan’s season record. He has a good matchup against a backup running QB in Huntley (who I also started in DFS because Watt’s going to be undisciplined in going for this record off the edge).
A.J. Green to have AT LEAST 75 Receiving Yards +120
Green needs 10 receptions for a $250,000 bonus and 75 receiving yards for another $250k. THe yards seem more attainable as Green gets around 4 catches a game.
Rob Gronkowski Receptions OVER 7 -130
He need 7 catches for $500k, 85 yards for another $500k, and 3 TDs for another $500k. He may rest in this one, but the catch one most attainable and likely.
GAME PLAYS:
Miami +6.5 -105
Patriots always struggle in Miami. For like my entire life.
Ravens -3.5 +105
Big Ben ends his career today, most likely laying a golden turd in the middle of the field.
Washington -7 EVEN
Joe Judge sucks.
Indianapolis -14 -110
Last day to bet against Jacksonville! Jonathan Taylor can also hit 2000 yards today he if gets 266,
TEASER +150: TEN -10, WAS -6, BAL -3.5
PARLAY +530: MIA +6.5, IND -14, WAS ML -287, TEN ML -550, BUF ML -900
SUPER PICKS (42-38-5 Season): MIA +6.5, IND -14, BAL -3.5, WAS -7, CAR +10
DFS:
NFL Week 17
HOU at SF OVER 43.5
Young QBs, but the defenses are even worse.
Philadelphia -4 -120
Started at -3.5, now at -6. WFT reeling after losing 110-31 last two weeks, and their team had a fight on the field last game.
New Orleans -6.5 -110
Tip from friend of the site, and Panther fan, Allen. Tepper is apparently getting public second thoughts about giving all that money to HC Rhule, locker room is a mess, and Robbie Anderson is celebrating 1st downs down 26 in the 4th quarter. NO is banged up, but they are at least a professional football team.
Rams at Ravens UNDER 47
Expect the short handed Ravens to try and shorten the game today.
Detroit +9
All this shitty team does is cover the number. Dan Campbell is 8-6 ATS!
TEASER +150: PHI -6, LA Rams -6, CHI -6
SUPER PICKS (39-37-4 Season): NE -15.5, DET +9, NO -6.5, PHI -4, GB -13
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (My Pick BOLD): HOU at SF OVER 43.5, KC at CIN UNDER 51, PHI -6, NO -6.5, MIA +3, CLE -3
DFS:
Week 16 NFL
Lions at Falcons OVER 42 -105
Bears at Seahawks UNDER 42.5 -110
Bengals -7 -118
LA Rams -3 -120
TEASER +150: Seahawks -6, KC -8.5, CIN -7
SUPER PICKS (35-36-4 Season): IND +1, DET +7, CIN -7, CAR +11, LA Rams -3
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (my pick BOLD): RAMS -3, NE ML -110, MIA -2, DET at ATL OVER 42, NYG +10.5
DFS:
Week 15 NFL
ATL at SF OVER 47.5 -115
CAR at BUF OVER 44 -108
TEN +1
TEASER +150: GB -7, SF -9, TEN +1
SUPER PICKS (33-33 season): TEN +1, BUF -10.5, BAL +8, TB -10.5, CHI +6
Castle Degen Parlay: SF -8, JAX -5, CIN +3, ATL at SF OVER 47.5, SEA +7, NO at TB UNDER 45
DFS:
NHL BONUS:
STL ML +120
