Miracle Covers

Early Trends

Until further notice, I think it is worth blindly betting LA Dodgers team unders. The catchy tag-line following the Freeman signing went “Dodgers’ Best Line-Up Ever.” This team will certainly hit major grooves at points this year but they seem off at the moment. They needed a dropped fly ball on Sunday just to get multiple runs in Colorado, and only plated 2 runs the game previous. To be fair, Will Smith was out of the lineup for both those games and he’s no slap-hitter, but nevertheless, the team as a whole doesn’t appear locked-in offensively. Combine this with the media-generated expectation inflation, and ‘team total under’ becomes the play in the immediate future.

The same is going to be true for the time being in regards to D-backs team unders. No hit by SPs on back-to-back games to start the season…This team needs to prove itself offensively. Not impressed by 5 runs on Sunday in what turned out to be a BPen game and blowout.

MLB Win Totals

If you listen to 3 consecutive podcasts about a team, I congratulate you if your mental estimations of them and their players dont sky-rocket. A podcaster innocently trying to drum-up some excitement for their next episode will have you thinking, “Well sure that guy has hit a combined .199 the last 2 seasons, but if…” A random team reporter will have you excited for a pitcher that was an all-star a half decade ago. If you can listen to back-to-back spring training podcasts of a team without thinking, “Has any team ever gone 162-0 before?” “Will their games count as wins if the other team isnt able to record an out?” then kudos, kudos to you. Lets see what we like.

Yankees – (U 92.5) -122

First of all, this is just a fun bet. But to the rationale…a lot of this would seem to ride on the health and production of Severino and Cole. When 100%, Severino is full-on legit, but he has only been able to throw something like 18-19 total IPs since the end of 2019. Expecting Cole to replicate his numbers from 3-4 years ago is fool’s gold imo. From late last year: “Cole’s stuff and velocity mostly looked fine, but his command was off as it had been on occasion down the stretch of the regular season – 5.13 ERA in Sept” Cole will not be well-served if the sticky stuff police are again on duty this year. I dont think the Yankees, as an organization, have the pitching depth this year to adequately deal with Severino living on IL while Cole is getting sporadically lit-up. Cashman, I believe, fully realized his situation early in the off-season, which is why he throws a huge offer to Verlander. To compound difficulties, this is a team that under-delivered last year offensively. They ranked 13th in combined OPS (.729) and 19th in runs scored despite relatively healthy years for Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, and can you honestly count on that happening again? Would you really trust Hicks to get 300 plate appearances this year or to do anything productive with them if he did? Was going from Rizzo to Voit really just an expensive lateral move? In other words, this is an offense that cannot be counted on to cover the sins of a less than stellar pitching staff. The Yankees would have done well to add one more big arm to deal with the bats in Toronto and Boston, and they didn’t.

Cleveland – (O 76.5) -114

The AL Central is, imo, the most interesting division in baseball this year. This is when baseball really misses old-school divisional races. Imagine how great last year would have been with San Fran and LAD going to the end. At any rate, I personally think this Cleveland number is artificially low because a lot of bettors are going to be hot on the White Sox and Tigers. This is understandable, but those teams certainly are not without flaws. CWS lose Rodon to free agency this off-season and Lance Lynn goes down injured late in spring training, “the same knee that gave Lynn trouble during the second half of the 2021 season.” The Tigers look solid, but are still relying on elder statesman Miguel Cabrera as their primary DH entering the season, not to mention an infant @ 1B. I wound up taking 4 combined team win total over/unders last year and Cleveland under would have been my 5th. There were quotes and reports coming out constantly about the team struggling financially from pandemic stuff; the organization had the vibe of what Oakland is this year. But now things seem to be looking up. Bieber is back. Jose Ramirez is signing extensions. Civale, Plesac, Quantrill and McKenzie are young, fun guns. Emmanuel Clase may be the best closer in baseball already. They are no longer passive-aggressively demeaning a race of humans. Big X-factor(s) for this team? Rosario and Gimenez.

Mariners – (O 84.5) -115

As many of these bets go, this is more an indictment of the teams around them. Oakland and Texas are essentially after-thoughts…Houston has to be weaker. Who the Hell knows what the Angels do. This is a Mariner team way more likely to win 92 games than 75 games imo. So we will take the over.

I wish I had more but thats all for now…

EDIT:

Saying “thats all for now” when gambling…like being at a beer festival and saying “Im all set for the evening” an hour before it ends. Stop it, no one believes you, its sad. We sneak in a last minute under on the aforementioned White Sox. The Lance Lynn injury alone is almost enough in my mind to validate this pick. Not only does that push Keuchel into the #3 role, it may ultimately force Vince Velazquez into the rotation which will almost undoubtedly fail. Lynn inj gets coupled late with a Yoan Moncada IL designation also. Oblique strains can linger, and just think about this infield when Moncada is out. Abreu is now firmly in his mid-30s, as is Josh Harrison @ 2B. Tim Anderson is a stud but he is almost certainly not improving this year. You are getting the same numbers out of him or worse. And then @ 3rd…Burger? Hasnt done anything yet. Leury Garcia? He hit 5 HRs last yr in 126 games. Andrew Vaughn? He hit .235 last year. Add to these points one I made earlier. This division, I believe, will be intriguing and competitive. It would be no surprise to me at all if the winner of this division comes in at a sub-90 win total. I believe the moves made by the Twins, the young talent coming up with the Royals, the potential renaissance happening in Detroit, and Cleveland not going bankrupt ultimately translates to parity. The White Sox probably still have the best overall roster, but the gap is not where you thought it might have been at this point a year or 2 ago. So related to that, I also have action on non-White Sox division winner (+150). We will see how things go.

MLB Over/Unders

It is a return to old-times, as team O/Us are back to total wins, as opposed to winning %. We wind up going 3-1 with these last year, with Philadelphia going to the last weekend. We did well taking the Nationals under and Tigers over, but the Phillies W was fortunate. Shout-outs to Bryce Harper and Ranger Suarez, I owe you both a Yuengling. Here are the totals for 2022, we will make our picks a few days before Opening Day.

Arizona – 66.5

Atlanta – 91.5

Baltimore – 62.5

Boston – 85.5

CHC – 75.5

CWS – 91.5

Cincinnati – 74.5

Cleveland – 76.5

Colorado – 68.5

Detroit – 76.5

Houston – 91.5

Kansas City – 75.5

LAA – 84.5

LAD – 97.5

Miami – 76.5

Milwaukee – 90.5

Minnesota – 81.5

NYM – 90.5

NYY – 92.5

Oakland – 70.5

Philadelphia – 85.5

Pittsburgh – 65.5

San Diego – 89.5

SFG – 84.5

Seattle – 84.5

StL – 84.5

Tampa Bay – 88.5

Texas – 73.5

Toronto – 91.5

Washington – 71.5

March Madness Sunday

Ohio St vs Villanova UNDER 133.5 (-107)

Texas Tech -8 (-110)

TCU vs Arizona OVER 145 (-113)

Texas +3

PARLAY +350: Houston ML -170, Wisconsin ML -190, Ohio St vs Villanova UNDER 133.5

March Madness Saturday

Kansas -11.5 (-115)

St Mary’s vs UCLA OVER 126.5 (-110)

Michigan +6 (-105)

Providence vs Richmond UNDER 134.5 (-110); 1H UNDER 61 +105

St. Peters vs Murray State OVER 129.5 (-110); St Peter’s 1H +4.5

TEASER +150: Michigan +6, Gonzaga -9, Baylor -5.5

PEOPLE’s ML PARLAY +144:

Kansas -800

Gonzaga -595

Gunnar Nelson -550 (UFC)

Paddy Pimblett -750 (UFC)

Los Angeles FC -250 (MLS)

March Madness Friday

Loyola Chicago pk -107

CS Fullerton +18.5

Michigan St pk -110

Auburn vs Jacksonville St OVER 139.5

Delaware vs Villanova UNDER 135

UAB ML +330

Wisconsin -7.5

NCAA Round 1 Thursday

Richmond vs Iowa UNDER 150.5 -110
Gonzaga -23

San Francisco vs Murray St OVER 138 -110

Boise State ML +138

Indiana vs St.Mary’s OVER 126.5 -110

Marquette +4 -110

Super Bowl LVI

Bengals +4.5

I think this will be a close game in what has been a 2021-2022 NFL playoff full of close games. I also think Cincinnati has the better quarterback and can overcome some of the deficiencies (O-Line, offense red zone efficiency) because the Rams’ one flaw that keeps coming up is how they let teams back in games due to their shake strong armed QB (Stafford) and hteir coach who loves to set timeouts on fire (both of these guys do, its vexing). I also see Joe Mixon having a good game as the Bengals will try to slow that pass rush of the Rams down with runs and screens.

No real opinion on OVER/UNDER it’s about right; I do think the @H will have the majority of the scoring in the game as it will be hot in LA and the stadium isn’t domed so fatigue maybe an issue.

But now to the more important part…the PROPS:

Rams:

Matthew Stafford Longest Play 38.5 OVER -130
Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 9 -108
Cam Akers Carries OVER 15.5 +100

First Punt Distance Johnny Hekker OVER 46.5 -110

Cooper Kupp to have 100+ Receiving Yards , 6+ Receptions and LAR to Win -150

Total Sacks – Leonard Floyd OVER 0.5 +110

Bengals:

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards OVER 60.5 -115
Joe Mixon Receptions OVER 3.5 -156

Joe Mixon MVP +2500

Joe Mixon Touchdowns OVER 1 +100

Samaje Perine Receptions OVER 1.5 -120

Joe Burrow Completions OVER 24.5 -118
Joe Burrow MVP +255

Tee Higgins More Yards than Odell Beckham Jr -130

Who will Record the First Interception in the Game – Jessie Bates +750

CIN Total FG OVER 1.5 -208
Evan McPherson Kicking Points OVER 7.5 -149

Random Props:

Opening kickoff to be touchback – YES +108
Will there be a safety – YES +800
Lowest Scoring Quarter – 1st Quarter +210
Bengals First play – PASS +110
First TD Scorer: Joe Mixon +800, Cam Akers +800

Will either kicker hit the upright or crossbar on a missed field goal or extra point attempt? – YES +375

NFL Championship Sunday

Bengals +7.5*

UNDER 54.5

Around 60-65% of the money is on KC at most books (some do have CIN at around 55%). Once line got to 7.5, I had to jump in and it’s now back at 7. I just feel like this will be a close and tight game, and in a year of big upsets and spreads being covered, and Kansas City’s ability to keep teams in games, I feel Cincy has a chance to keep it close and even potentially snip one here. For props, I like: Evan McPherson points OVER 7 -130, Frank Clark OVER 0.5 sacks -105, Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards OVER 28.5 -115, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards OVER 62.5 -110, First TD: C.J. Uzomah +1400 and Bryon Pringle +1400.

49ers +3.5*

OVER 45.5*

Doubling down on the 49ers +1200 NFC bet in what should be a home game for them. I am more certain of points however as both teams have a tendency to make, and give up, big plays (and hilarious fails). The 49ers actually lead the NFL in DPI, and the referees for this game are the nittiest refs in the NFL, so I also like penalties accepted OVER 11.5 -110. For other props, I like: Cam Akers TD Over 0.5 +105, Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards OVER 39.5 -115, Robbie Gould Points OVER 6.5 -130, First Score Method – FG +150, Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards OVER 50 -110, Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards OVER 28.5 -115, Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards UNDER 104.5 -110.

DFS:

BOS at DAL OVER 5.5 -110