Week 3 NFL
Indianapolis +7 (-105)
Lou got this at 8; Indy can run and Baltimore has a habit of keeping big dogs hanging around at home. Minshew magic baby!
Cardinals +12.5 (-110)
Feel like everybody is taking the Cowboys today. They just lost Diggs to ACL, and Arizona has been scrappy. +500 ML is tempting.
NE at NY Jets UNDER 38 -110
This has now cratered to 35. It may rain during the game. Two very good defenses. These might be the worst 2 offensive lines in football. Zach Wilson sucks. The Patriots’ wide receiving core, outside of Kendrick Bourne, blows.
PIT at LV OVER 42.5 -110
Should be fun atmosphere in Vegas and full of fun failure plays. Also these run defenses stink.
TEASER +150: MIA -6.5, NO +1.5, SEA -5
Props: Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 -125; Bijan Robinson TDs AT LEAST 1 -112; Tyler Lockett TDs AT LEAST 1 +150; Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards OVER 13.5 -132
DFS:
Week 2 NFL
Seattle +5.5 (-110)
This line is jumping everywhere; was at +4 (EVEN) now at -5 on Sunday morning. Everybody loves the Lions this year especially after their win vs KC, and if I am a Lions fan, that’s gotta make you nervous considering their history.
Green Bay +3 (-120)
Coinflip game. Just hope the Packers weren’t out late at Cheetah’s or King Richard’s last night.
MIA at NE OVER 46 -110
PROPS: Anthony Richardson Anytime TD +150; Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards OVER 17.5 -118; Justin Fields Rushing Yards OVER 58.5 -114; Deshaun Watson INTs OVER 0.5 +120
TEASER +150: SF -7, BUF -7, CHI +2
DFS:
NFL Week 1
Miami ML +140
I also like the OVER 51 in this one; should be a fun back and forth game. Will also be some Miami fans in LA as no one likes the Chargers
JAX at IND OVER 46 (-110)
Two fun young QBs.
MIN -4 (-110)
The Buccaneers stink and I think they’ll have the worst record in football this year. Keep an eye on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as trade targets at the deadline, especially for the Chiefs.
PARLAY +775: MIN -4, MIA ML +135, MIA at SD OVER 51
PROPS: Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards OVER 13.5 -135; Justin Fields Rushing Yards OVER 59.5 -124; Tyler Lockett AT LEAST 1 Touchdown +160
FANTASY:
NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks
Eastern Conference
(2) Celtics vs (3) 76ers
On his latest podcast, Bill Simmons tried to say this was the biggest/longest-running rivalry in the NBA, and specifically called it out as bigger than Celtics/Lakers. That may (or may not) be true for Celtics fans, but it’s definitely not true for neutrals like me. I don’t give a shit about the Celtics playing the Sixers. But when the Celtics & Lakers play, I start wearing green a lot more.
Anyway, on to the pick. On paper, this should be the Celtics for sure. Two things going for the 76ers: First, they have (probably) the best player in the series in Joel Embiid. He hasn’t really done it in the playoffs yet, but past performance is not a predictor of future success. If he plays like Joel EMVPiid, the Sixers have a real chance. Second, the Celtics don’t always show up. If the Hawks can beat them twice in 6 games, the Sixers should be able to do at least one better. I’ll say Celtics in 7, but almost any result wouldn’t surprise me.
(5) Knicks vs (8) Heat
Is it the late 90s/early 2000s again? I’m sick of these reboots. I’ll say Knicks in 7, but again I don’t feel very confident.
Western Conference
(1) Nuggets vs (4) Suns
Full disclosure: I’m a Suns fan, and I can’t be fully objective on them from here on out. With that said, I’ll do my best to keep things realistic. These teams met in the second round two years ago, but a lot has changed:
- Jamal Murray is healthy
- Kevin Durant is on the Suns
- All of the Suns’ forwards from 2021 are gone
- Chris Paul is way worse now
You’ll notice that 3 of those 4 are good for the Nuggets or bad for the Suns, so I’m not expecting another sweep. But I do like their chances. If 2021 Playoffs DeAndre Ayton shows up, he does about the best job on Jokic in the league without getting help. Which means Jokic will still put up massive numbers, but 1.) will have to work for them, and 2.) won’t be able to set up his teammates nearly as well. On the other end, I think the Suns have the personnel to heavily exploit Jokic’s defensive liabilities. I think it’ll be a really fun series, and I’ll say Suns in 6.
(3) Kings vs (7) Lakers OR (6) Warriors vs (7) Lakers
If I’m able, I’ll come back and edit this section once we know who’s playing.
NBA Playoffs Round 1 Recap
First, a recap of my picks from last round. Bold means I consider it a win.
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
My pick: Suns in 5 or 6
Actual: Suns in 5
Analysis: I think I was spot on on this. I also think Kawhi staying healthy would’ve mean the Suns winning in 6 instead of 5. Why? Because there are no independent outcomes in sports. Westbrook couldn’t have played as well as he did without having so many opportunities with the ball in his hands.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
My pick: Nuggets in 4 or 5
Actual: Nuggets in 5
Analysis: Again, pretty spot on here. I don’t like this T-Wolves team at all, but at least they didn’t get swept.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
My pick: N/A
Actual: Lakers in 6
Analysis: I got to celebrate the Grizzlies running their mouths before getting absolutely punked out. Good times!
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
My pick: N/A
Actual: TBD
Bonus pick for game 7: LIGHT THE BEAM
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
My pick: Bucks in 4, 5, or 6
Actual: Heat in 5
Analysis: Way off! Obviously I didn’t foresee Giannis getting hurt, but even considering the injury, I’m still surprised they lost in 5. Credit to Miami on this one. Side note of whining: Where the hell was that 10-23 free throw performance in the Finals 2 years ago?!?
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
My pick: Celtics in 4 or 5
Actual: Celtics in 6
Analysis: I got the winner right, but the Hawks’ 2nd win suprised me. I was at Game 1 of this series, and it was one of the biggest disparities I’ve ever seen in person. Like I said in my preview, this Celtics team is way too inconsistent. On paper, they should be a heavy title favorite with the Bucks out, but I don’t fully believe in them.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
My pick: 76ers in 5
Actual: 76ers in 4
Analysis: Off by 1 game, but no surprises here.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
My pick: Go Knicks!
Actual: Go Knicks!
NBA Playoffs
I can’t be bothered to bet any of these, but I wanted to get my thoughts and picks on the record, so we can see how terrible they wind up after the fact. I did make a good-faith attempt to look up the series odds, but couldn’t easily find them without signing up for a bunch of BS. Anyway, here we go:
Western Conference
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
This is the series I am the best informed about, since I’ve watched most of the Suns games post-KD trade. First, my general thoughts on the Suns: This Suns team definitely has flaws, but they also have some significant strengths. I’ll take their “best game” over anyone’s except Milwaukee. With that said, +480 odds for the title are too short IMO. If you could guarantee me they have no injuries in the playoffs, I might like those odds. But both Durant and Paul are high-risk in that area, and Booker has a history of lingering hamstring injuries – including in last year’s playoffs.
Injuries aside, the Suns are good enough to beat anyone, but not so good that any series should be considered a lock. I think they dodged a serious bullet with Playoff P being out for the whole first round. Zubac has consistently matched up very well with Ayton, even when Ayton’s playing well. And Ty Lue tends to get the better of the coaching matchups. With Paul George, I’d consider this series a toss-up. Without him, the pick is Suns in 5 or 6.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
I’m one of the skeptics who won’t believe in this Nuggets team till they prove me wrong, but it’s hard fto imagine them losing to any of the Pelicans/T-Wolves/Thunder. So my pick is Nuggets in 4 or 5.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
No pick here – this is a complete toss-up for me depending on which Grizzlies team shows up AND which Lakers team shows up. I don’t particularly like this Grizzlies team, but I’m also a certified Laker Hater, so either way, I get to celebrate someone losing.
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
I can’t make a pick here, either, but I’m going to try to watch most of these games. The Kings looked legitimately very good this year, but it’s hard to go against the defending champs just as they’re getting the band back together. Very curious to see how this plays out, and I’ll be rooting for the Kings in solidarity.
Eastern Conference
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
I don’t think the opponent matters here; this is a Bucks win all the way. I could see the Bucks getting bored and dropping a game or 2, so I wouldn’t bet the sweep. But even if Giannis gets hurt in Game 1, I still think the Bucks advance. Bucks in 4, 5, or 6.
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
The Celtics are way too inconsistent for a team this good, and I worry about Tatum’s decision making in crunch time. (Last year, he sometimes looked more concerned with trying to force a Jordan/Kobe hero-ball highlight than just getting a good shot. Not sure if that’s something he’s gotten better at.) But it would be a shock if this mid Hawks team got to 3 wins. Celtics in 4 or 5.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
This is another series I’ll try to watch most of – I’ll be rooting for my boys Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson (aka The Twins). Still love them both, and wish them the best. But do they have a chance against one of the championship contenders? On paper I’d say no, but there’s always the possibility of Harden doing a full-on flameout. I’ll say 76ers in 5, but more of a guess than a pick.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
Go Knicks! I haven’t watch a single game from either team all year, so I can’t pretend to know anything about this series.
Over/Under # of Over/Under Picks (.5)
And the winner is under…I simply do not love anything this year. But Ill be around…
March Madness Friday
VCU ML +160
Iona vs UCONN OVER 141.5 -110
Arizona St +5 -110
PARLAY +602: Purdue ML -10000, Gonzaga -15.5, Marquette -10, Iona/UCONN OVER 141.5
March Madness Thursday
Probably will have more during today on the Twitter feed as I’ll be at Encore Sportsbook
Missouri ML +105
Penn St vs Texas A&M UNDER 134.5 -110
West Virginia -2.5 -110
TEASER 4 PT -120: Kansas -22, Alabama -24, Furman +6
MLB Over/Unders
A positive year overall on these in ’22. The Yankees under pick was about as bad as it gets, but the AL Central stuff we played came through. Key to the rationale on the Central bets last year was the idea that the White Sox were being seemingly (some would say substantially) overvalued, especially relative to their division rivals. Heading into ’23, preliminary research overwhelmingly and repeatedly wants to lead us down a somewhat similar path. This time, it is the Dodgers looking vulnerable…Buehler out until very late, Lux the entire season. Do Tyler Anderson and Gonsolin have real chances of repeating LYs results? Signing JD Martinez as a DH? Chris Taylor’s ’22? JASON HEYWARD?? BUT, before we start chucking bets around, below, you can see 2 things on the NL West…the Dodgers Under has big juice, while simultaneously, most of their NL West mates have juice on their Over. In other words, folks seem very hip to this sitch.
It was largely assumed last year the CWS would ultimately control a division loaded with crappy franchises. Like LA this year, Chicago had flaws in ’22, but they were subtle enough to miss, or easily ignored given the accepted weakness of their division. The NL West is not giving us a similar narrative gift this Spring Training. The potential Dodger issues are relatively glaring, and teams like the Padres, Giants and D-backs are seen as capable of exploiting them. Indeed, the Dodgers Under may get action from us, but as a loose rule, its really difficult to like “loud” bets, and this is about as loud as these type of bets get. At any rate, we will see how the next few weeks shake-out. Ideally we will land on some plays that are quietly sitting in a corner with their head down. Here are where things stand…heavy juice noted.
ARIZ : 74.5 (O -150)
ATL : 95.5
BALT : 76.5 (O -150)
BOS : 77.5 (O -140)
CHC : 77.5 (O -140)
CWS : 83.5 (U -160)
CIN : 65.5
CLE : 86.5
COL : 65.5
DET : 69.5
HOU : 96.5
KC : 69.5
LAA : 81.5
LAD : 97.5 (U -145)
MIA : 75.5
MIL : 85.5
MINN : 83.5
NYM : 94.5
NYY : 94.5
OAK : 59.5
PHI : 89.5 (U -140)
PITT : 66.5
SD : 93.5 (O -140)
SEA : 87.5
SFG : 80.5 (O -140)
StL : 88.5
TB : 88.5
TEX : 82.5
TOR : 92.5
WAS : 59.5
