Category: Soccer
Two Hundo Posts on Miraclecovers
And #200 is about…soccer, a game that has been slowly sucking me in over the last couple years. Over/under Premier League point totals are as follows. I will point out when a line is heavily weighted.
- Man U : 81.5
- Chelsea : 77.5 (over -130)
- Man City : 74.5 (over -130)
- Arsenal : 68.5 (over -138)
- Tottenham : 59.5 (over -121)
- Liverpool : 67.5 (over -123)
- Everton : 55.5 (under -127)
- Fulham : 48.5
- Aston Villa : 53.5 (under -150)
- Sunderland : 47.5
- West Bromwich : 45.5
- Newcastle : 46.5
- Stoke City : 50.5 (under -155)
- Bolton : 44.5
- Blackburn : 37.5 (over -121)
- Wigan : 36.5 (over -130)
- Wolverhampton : 41.5
- Norwich City : 35.5
- Swansea City : 32.5 And last but certainly not least for TK
- QPR : 38.5
This means that if the season were to play out as the bookies expect, TK’s lads would stay up with the Big Boys. As for Wigan…sorry DaGow. We shall see. More to come on this…
Recent Bets Made
Going to throw down here a couple of recent bets made…
Champions League Finals – Barca vs Man U – Straight up Bet 50
I need the finals of the Champions League to be Barcelona vs Man U. Any other Finals Match-up (i.e. Man U v Real) and Loubaka wins. The obvious thing to hate about this bet is that it is betting on the expected, and how often does that happen?
Houston Astros worst record in baseball – Laying 3.5:1 – 30 Dollar Bet
This is the bet that refused to die. Bet was only consummated after Houston had its only (still the case!) winning streak of the season, two in a row against the Mets. At this moment Houston is half a game better than Seattle and has the same record as San Diego and the White Sox.
Miami Heat – -10 the pinnacle line on playoff series until eliminated – 20 Dollar Bet each series
Confused by the language on this? Join the club. If there is one activity I enjoy doing, it is drinking while making complicated bets against the Miami Heat. I think this means that if Miami is -120 to win a series, JaPan gets Miami at -130 with me as the house. I’ll clarify, or try to get JaPan to make a miraclecameo to the web site to clear things up.
Thoughts
1) I do not have long term betting experience with soccer, but regardless, this week is the first time I have ever seen a soccer total goals scored line of 3.5. And it seems pretty deserved with Chelsea v Stoke City. This could honestly be Chelsea v X, Drogba looks flat out dominant at the moment. He did not even put a goal in last week (three assists) and they still scored six goals.
2) I have made two NFL bets with Louis. I like one and am anxious about the other. They are…
* Raiders win total (over 6 games) – This is actually the bet I like which should tell you something about the other bet we will talk about in a second. The Raiders have not won 6 games in ages but I like their coach, their defense and that J Russell is no longer on board. In my mind I win this bet 1/3 of the time and push it 45-50%. But the next bet…
* Chiefs to win the division (10:1) – I am The House in this bet and I flat out do not like it. The only things I hear about in this division are how many players on the Chargers are either hurt or holding out. And if they do not dominate this group, I am in trouble, because there is a whole lot of generic nothing after them in the AFC West. I figure I win this bet 80% of the time, which means I am getting a poor deal at 10:1. Week 1 will be a HUGE indicator of how this bet will go as KC opens at home against the Chargers.
3) There are three MLB future “to win World Series” bets that I like the value of. They are…
* Red Sox 25-1
* White Sox 28-1
* Giants 20-1
World Cup Follow-Up
I had said i would follow up on the last round of World Cup picks I had, and success was mine. If I had been betting One hundred dollars as one unit I finished up 747 bucks.
Ghana 60:1
I added some Ghana World Cup futures at 60:1 to go with the 35:1 on Uruguay. Both of these teams are in the same pod (with the United States) and should either make the semis, we can start to pull out some equity by betting on their opponent to advance. Of course, If the US makes the semis, I won’t care about either of these.
Games to Avoid
Basically the rest of the group phase. I’ve got nothing for the next day or two.
It is the time for the fixes.
Here is what I know.
The fixers are in South Africa. They have been desperately trying to contact various teams. They have various runners and old contacts coming in and out of the hotels and training camps. They are trying ‘to do the business’ with various players and administrators.
Given these circumstances which matches should we red-flag for possible corruption?
1)Games where one team has nothing to play for. Even if they win the teams will not progress to the next stage of the competition.
2)Teams which have a history of not paying their players properly. It is the phenomenon of relative exploitation which drives fixing. The officials receive lots of money, the players comparatively little.
The games I will be watching closely are Cameroon vs. the Netherlands and Honduras vs. Switzerland. In no way do I want to suggest that I have heard anything about players on these teams being open to fixing matches. In no way do I want to suggest that even if they had been approached the players would have taken money. But I do want to say that if either of these teams loses by more than the Asian ‘spread’ of goals (2 goals and above) then FIFA should bring in their toothless tigers of investigators and begin to ask questions.
Have to post this:
Goal! Goal USA!
Group A Bets
Kickoff is in under an hour…
South Africa PK +170 vs. France is on strike
Going with the point spread here. This will push on a draw. I have a small amount on SA +280 straight up as well.
Uruguay/Mexico o2 +175
I’ll be livebetting this one and putting my 100% live betting record at risk in this one. The draw for this game has gone from -150 to nearly even as the 2nd place team will have to face Argentina in the second round. Mexico will not be playing for a draw. Not willing pick a result up front, but I really like the over 2. I also loved the over 2 on both of Chile’s games, but their lack of finishing turned those bets into losers. We’ll see what Mexico and Uruguay have today.
EDIT: Knockout round scenarios entering the final group games are here.
World Cup
If you bet money based on my World Cup picks last week, whoops. Made five bets and the best result I had was a push. If I had been betting One Hundo a pop on those picks I would be down a smooth 4 bills at this moment. So let’s try to win it back! And here’s how were going to do it…
Uruguay (+296) v Mexico – Two Units
Uruguay v Mexico (Draw -108) – Two Units
As has been analyzed by many including Louis, a draw puts both sides through, thus making it a very possible outcome. But a win is very beneficial. I am taking Uruguay based on the idea that I don’t like them more but dislike them less than Mexico.
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 2 and 2.5 +109) – Two Units
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 1.5 -214) – Three Units
Here is my thinking. Nigeria is going to have to win in order to have a chance to advance, so they are going to have to play aggressive. And if they do score, the onus than goes on Korea to score or they are going to be gone. The only way Korea can play completely defensive is if the game is 0-0 at the half and even that plan goes out the window if Greece is scoring against Argentina. Let’s see what happens.
World Cup Week 2
Adding some more action no doubt spurred by the increase in scoring that was inevitable, even if it was hard to profit from some of the scoring. We took a bad beat taking Australia/Ghana o2.5 +165 when there was no scoring after Harry Kewell’s red card and subsequent penalty prior to the half hour mark. England drawing 0-0 didn’t help either.
Denmark & Cameroon meanwhile looked incredibly poor in their opening games and laughed at o/u 2 as neither team defended well or with much interest. The 2-1 final should have been more like 3-3.
Action we are adding:
o2½+140 (IVORY COAST/BRAZIL)
o2+120 (SWITZERLAND/CHILE)
TO WIN – FIFA WORLD CUP URUGUAY +3500
We know from the given match odds that Uruguay is roughly 75% likely to win their group, doing so with a win or draw against Mexico. If they succeed, their reward is a 2nd round game against Greece/South Korea/Nigeria, all three of whom they will be favored against. Getting 35:1 on a team that’s a favorite to advance to the quarterfinals is good value. Also keep in mind that the way the bracket shakes out, teams from Groups A-D won’t face Groups E-G until the semifinals. There’s a decent chance pre-tournament favorites Spain and Brazil will face each other in the round of 16. Uruguay winning their group would also see them avoid Argentina in round 2. Should Uruguay fail to win their group, any value at 35:1 will cease to exist.
Lastly, the Marlins gave away vuvuzelas to all fans attending last night’s game against Tampa.
Looking to feed off World Cup soccer buzz, the Marlins gave away plastic air horns to fans as they entered the stadium, the toy instruments creating a loud and never-ending soundtrack for the night. Similar to the vuvuzelas that dominate the audio landscape at matches in South Africa, the buzzing of the horns blared from long before the first pitch, and some were still going at the end.
The horns might have been a hit with fans, but they were a big miss with those on the field, especially because all the noise could have prompted a lineup-card miscommunication between Gonzalez and Barksdale.
“It was the most uncomfortable baseball game I’ve been a part of in a long time because of that,” crew chief Tom Hallion said. “Whether that had anything to do with it, I don’t know, but it could have. When’s the last time you heard something like that at a baseball game? Never. You don’t see this kind of stuff at baseball games.”
Said Maddon: “I really believe the horns should be banned from Major League Baseball.”
Added Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla, who, like the umpires, resorted to earplugs: “That was the worst handout or giveaway I’ve ever been a part of in baseball. This isn’t soccer. I know the World Cup is going on, but this is baseball.”
And this from Marlins center fielder Cody Ross: “It was awful, awful. I can’t tell you how awful it was.”
World Cup Action
Let’s take a look at some upcoming games over today and tomorrow. I will be betting units and keeping track of my payoff/money lost in relation to the lines. Will I finish up money?
France v. Mexico – Draw +215 – One Unit
A couple of teams with not a whole lot going on these days. Both seem very unspectacular. I am betting on 1-1 or 0-0. So, with that in mind…
France v. Mexico – Under -118 – One Unit
And then…the chalk
Germany v. Serbia – Germany -140 – Two Units
USA v. Slovenia – USA +120 – One Unit
England v. Algeria – England -344 – Two Units
These picks are about as imaginative as a turd, but that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. England is vastly superior to Algeria, the US cannot lose the game, and Germany scored four fucking goals in their first game. How the hell do you bet against any of these teams?? 2-0 in all three games.
