Category: Soccer
This is How to Liveblog
For those of you not up to speed on MLS, and I assume that’s all of you, DC United were crushed 4-0 at home to Houston on Wednesday night to drop to 1-7-1 on the season. We call that relegation form everywhere else in the soccer world, but in America, it’s simply last. Bad teams and/or weird sports make for the best source material, but Jeff Maurer really needs to win an award for his Liveblog of the match on Wednesday. Some highlights:
Halftime: 2-0 Houston. The Red Bulls have posters on the subways up here in New York with a picture of a player and a short phrase. Henry’s says: “Born to finish.” Dax McCarty’s says: “Every minute. Every play. Everything I have.” May I suggest a few for United players? Sanchez: “Ticket back to Panama is already booked.” Augusto: “Sparking the attack. Your counterattack, specifically.” Rafael: “Making you miss Pajoy.” Jakovic: “89 minutes of focus.”
Full time: 4-0 Houston. Dave Johnson says: “Man of the match should go to the fans who stayed.” Yeah, I’ll agree with that. Tough break, Kyle Porter.
Go read the whole thing. Our single play was a winner yesterday with the Mets winning in the bottom of the 9th 3-2. White Sox, Giants, Twins and Mets are your early leans this Friday morning. Soccer tomorrow but it may be a quiet weekend.
EDIT: One play tonight. Yankees (Hughes) @ Royals (Davis) -116
Thursday
Fun game of checkers as the Cubs lost yesterday 5-4. Manager Dale Sveum sent Carlos Villaneuva, who did not have a great game and who is almost never effective past the sixth inning, back out to start the 7th leading 4-3. Villaneuva promptly walks the #8 hitter. Cardinals manager Mike Matheny then sends out Descalso to hit for the pitcher. No problem there. Villaneuva is for some reason still in the game and goes to 3-2 against Descalso (Career .239 2013 – .172). Matheny then sends the runner on a hit & run that ends in a double play. Sveum finally removes Villaneuva after this gift and wisely brings in LOOGY James Russell to pitch to the lefty Matt Carpenter. Carpenter hits a double turned into a triple on an error with Carlos Beltran coming up. Sveum leaves Russell, who should never, ever face a quality right handed batter, in to face Beltran, who promptly singles in the tying run.
Sampdoria drew Catania 1-1 with 20 shots on goal but only six on target. Catania scored on their only shot of the game to earn a point. Such is life in low scoring sports.
One play so far today on the Mets (Gee) -113 at home to Pittsburgh (Locke). Leans on Colorado, Washington and TB/Toronto U7 with updates per usual.
Wednesday
A late game-time decision worked out last night with the Cubs winning at home to the Cardinals 2-1. Milwaukee cruised and we also got the coin flip we were looking for with the White Sox, if by coin-flip we mean one Alex Rios infield hit in 10 innings as Matt Harvey dominated and the Mets won 1-0. I think others are now coming around to the fact that the White Sox offense is really bad and that Harvey is very good. 2-1 yesterday, and 3-3 +0.19 for May.
Today there is a 90% chance we’ll be on the Cubs again this afternoon but am waiting to see if the line improves at all. Texas/Milwaukee under 8 is looking ok at the moment, but lineups are necessary. Texas has been struggling with their bats of late as well.
Also today we have one play already in sketchy Italian soccer with Sampdoria to win at home -110 versus Catania. MLS also has midweek action but there are no plays right now. The ‘best’ is Salt Lake visiting New England with the solid under 2 instead of 2.5.
MLB updates and any late soccer plays posted here as we move along today. Other leans are Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh and the Mets.
EDIT1: St. Louis (Westbrook) @ Chicago Cubs (Villaneuva) -101
EDIT2: Passing on the total as I need some super strong indicators to bet a total. This one is not quite there. I also just lost out on the bet I was going to make on Milwaukee -111 which has now moved to -118. So passing all the way around tonight. Good luck out there.
Monday
Nothing doing again today. Hopefully this won’t last a whole week without any plays again. A couple of links:
1) Here’s a more thorough description of the Spanish soccer shenanigans that I mentioned a few days ago. One note that I forgot to mention is that in Spain, it’s legal to pay (bribe) a team to win but not ok to pay a team to lose. It’s the latter issue that is more problematic.
2) The Sabermetrics of Little League
You’re likely familiar with the defensive spectrum—the order of positions from easiest to fill to most difficult. The defensive spectrum in Major League Baseball is:
1B < LF < RF < 3B < CF < 2B < SS < C < P In my son’s league, the spectrum looks something like: C < LF < RF < LCF < RCF < 3B < 2B < SS < P < 1B There are some pretty big differences: First base could not be any more important at this level. Not only does your first baseman need to catch the ball (which by itself is very difficult at this age), but also catch balls thrown by other children. It’s one thing to catch a throw from an adult. But from another five- or six-year old? That’s tough. The defensive efficiency at this level can be seen in the team’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Right now, the Angels have 127 hits in 131 balls in play (I’m not calling anything by a five-year old an “error” because I’m not an ass). That’s good for a BABIP of .969. Yes, his team actually has statistics posted.
Pat really needs to do something like this for beer league softball.
Sunday
We lost our play on Chicago last night as the Royals won 2-0 with Guthrie getting the complete game shutout. My other bet against the Royals this season saw Erwin Santana do the same thing. While this is unlucky to an extent, I’d like to link here to a quick item on Guthrie and the secretly terrible White Sox offense.
You don’t usually see a guy with 1111 innings of a certain level of production become something significantly better in their 30s. At least not without a major change in their pitch mix either by adding a pitch or using what he has differently. There hasn’t been any of that with Guthrie which made his improvement even more suspicious. This split of his innings as a Royal definitely stood out:
Guthrie ERA
WHIP
K%
BB%
vs. CWS 35.7
0.50
0.81
21%
2%
vs. Rest 87.7
4.21
1.31
14%
7%
I won’t go through all the metrics on the White Sox, but they are only ahead of the Marlins this season in runs scored, and they play with a DH.
As far as how the sketchy soccer games ended up, Cagliari and Chievo drew 0-0. Levante tried a little more against Mallorca and finished 1-1 and Zaragoza won 3-0. Maybe we need to be betting on these after all? Will have a look again next week.
Nothing in baseball or leftover soccer games today.
Soccer Saturday
The end of the soccer season brings up matches against clubs with differing objectives. This is always true, but is magnified by the whatever scenarios the table reflects. For example, Swansea who won a cup and a European place a month or so ago have failed to win since, enjoying an extended holiday. In Spain, they take this to a whole other level, with the allegations of maletas (suitcases, presumably filled with cash) being passed around from clubs needing points to their weekly opponents who do not. Levante, who also haven’t won in a month, are the latest to be accused
Following the heavy loss to Deportivo, Levante forward Jose Barkero apparently accused four of his teammates— captain Sergio Ballesteros, goalkeeper Gustavo Munua, forward Juan Luis “Juanlu” Gomez, and defender Juan Francisco “Juanfran” Garcia— of a suspicious lack of effort in the match.
Barkero later publicly retracted his accusations. It is not clear if the league had already begun investigating prior to leaks of Barkero’s accusations.
“I only want to make public what I have told my teammates,” Barkero said at a news conference on Wednesday. “I asked them for forgiveness, above all my four teammates, those who I accused of something erroneous. I ask Ballesteros, Munua, Juanlu, and Juanfran for forgiveness for what I have done to their image, their persons and their family, because they didn’t deserve it.
“I am the one who was wrong. I accused them of something that didn’t really happen.”
Match-fixing is a crime in Spain and can lead to prison time for individuals or expulsion of a club from official competition.
Nothing sketchy to see here at all. It should also be noted that the Spanish FA is between 10 and 100 times more incompetent than Congress depending on who you ask, so any investigation will likely go the way of the US Attorney “investigating” a TBTF bank. See if this makes any sense:
Kick-off times are not confirmed until a fortnight or so before the matches take place, when the details are published on this page. However, these are liable to change at short notice and we strongly recommend you check with the club if you are hoping to attend a game.
This season first division kick-off times have been spaced out so that as a general rule no two matches coincide. This means that, as from week 13, there will normally be one match on Friday night and one on Monday, with four games spaced out between 4.00 p.m. and 10.00 p.m. on Saturday, and four more on Sunday between mid-day and 9.00 p.m. Only one match will be shown on an open TV programme, with the specialised sports channel Marca usually broadcasting a fixture between two of the lesser ranked teams on Friday or Monday night. All the rest will be shown on Pay Per View channels. Second division matches are mainly shown on Saturday afternoon, but can take place any time between Friday and Monday, especially if they are being televised.
Let’s just say that something like Extra Innings for Spanish soccer has not been considered. Also Madrid and Barcelona get over 50% of the league’s TV revenue while the rest of the teams flirt with bankruptcy. Which leads one to wonder where they are finding the cash for the maletas.
ANYWAY, the point of all of this is that there is sketchiness going on all over the pace with these end of season lines. Bottom of the table Mallorca, who are bankrupt, are -133 at home to Levante this weekend. Levante might be worth a play if only because they need to pretend a little more like they are trying. Zaragoza who are 19th are evens at home to 8th place Rayo. But my favorite this week, is in Italy, where Cagliari and Chievo face off. O/U 2 with evens on the draw, which is something I don’t think I’ve ever seen. Let’s just assume that there are plenty of good seats available.
I’m passing on all of this as I don’t have any insight on which team is or is not going to tank or not on a given day. I need a translator for all of these foreign player twitter feeds as we would probably have a better idea from paying closer attention. Nothing else in MLS so far either. MLB later
Friday
Not a good day yesterday as Portland had 22 shots and 2/3 possession only to draw with the Revs 0-0. This actually wasn’t a horribly depressing unwatchable 0-0 like most Revs games and New England even got a few good chances at the end as Portland pushed forward in search of a winner. As expected given all of this, the finishing and final ball were poor throughout. I also missed a bet on the Houston-Detroit under because I thought the game started at 10, but the Tiggers got 4 in the top of the 14th for the miracle over, so a bet saved there.
Early leans on the Mets, Colorado, Texas and Houston today. One note on these leans that I’m trying to post in the morning is that Houston and Miami will be getting flagged in the first sweep often because they are a) terrible and b) no one bets on them. This doesn’t mean you or I should. I have 5 plays on these two so far for 2-3 +0.16. Keeping in mind that a +200 line equates to a 33% chance of winning, and that this is almost the default line for Houston, there should be enough plays where we can pick & choose the ‘best’ ones.
EDIT:
Two plays tonight:
SD (Marquis) at home to Arizona (Miley) +104
Colorado (Francis) at home to TB (Moore) +112
I’ll take Houston with Norris tonight if I am around and the line moves in our favor. Spoiler alert: it won’t.
Thursday
One MLS play tonight. Going with the public if there is such a thing in MLS with Portland tonight -143 at home to the Revs. Barcelona’s loss at home yesterday is basically why there was no bet on Madrid the day before. Absolutely anything can happen in these two leg games when the 2nd leg home team is trailing.
Even more nothing in baseball today and it’s not just me continuing to be nitty with the lines. Tigers/Astros under 9.5 is the closest but we need lineups so this will be a game-time decision.
Tuesday
Both our MLB plays won last night. Miami defied the odds getting a run in the bottom of the 9th and then two in the 15th to win 4-3. I also put in a 1u play on Villa about 2 minutes before kickoff that also won (and that I didn’t post). I watched the 2nd half at a bar nearby and also ‘won’ a free beer as the crowds were not out for a Monday afternoon relegation scrap.
A number of games were flagged for me this morning but with no day games we will see how the lines move. One is in Cleveland where Pat’s boy Zach McAllister is up against Roy Halladay and the Phillies. McAllister is the league definition of average which is something Halladay is aspiring to be at this point in the season. Will update per usual once the lineups start to appear.
I don’t bet many totals, but there is one today early: Baltimore (Hammel) @ Seattle (Maurer) Over 7 -110
Pinnacle has 7.5 hence the early bet.
Lastly, I don’t think I am going to bet this, but Madrid has a non-zero chance of overturning their 4-1 deficit at home to Dortmund. They probably end up a goal short.
More later.
Weekend Plays
We won our NFL Draft under, a life first for me, with 12 SEC players taken. Player #12 didn’t go until the 32nd pick so our under 13 was good. It was looking difficult for there to be 14 so while there was a risk of a push, it didn’t seem likely to go over. It also turned out that under two QBs was a very solid play as maybe NFL teams are getting smarter and not taking crappy players at QB high in the draft anymore.
In baseball, I am now sure at this point that my filters are too stringent so I will tinker with the system setup some more. Our lean last night in Cahill won but went from -130 to -135 before start time. Two plays today:
Cleveland +145 @ KC (Kazmir/Santana)
SF @ SD Even (Lincecum/Cashner)
I will be away on Saturday so likely no plays over the weekend, but one in MLS I will post early and that is San Jose +150 away to Chivas.
Debating the under on DC/Columbus even though it is -150.
